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POLLING MEMORANDUM TO:
JEFF ROE, CAMPAIGN MANAGER
FROM:
CHRIS WILSON, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICS, TED CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT; PARTNER, WPA OPINION RESEARCH
SUBJECT:
PUBLIC POLLING SINCE ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE:
APRIL 2, 2015
As we expected, Ted Cruz has seen a surge in support since his announcement on March 23
rd
. Both national numbers and numbers in key states are up as voters engage and seriously assess a Cruz candidacy.
Recent Public Polling
Recent
national polling for GOP primary voters
shows a strong surge for Senator Cruz following his announcement.
o
The most recent Washington Post-ABC News National poll shows the strength of the Cruz surge as
Senator Cruz has vaulted into second place with 13 of the vote
.
Senator Cruz trails only Bush (20%) and is ahead of Scott Walker (12%) by one point.
o
Nationally, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points
in support among GOP Primary Voters garnering 16% of the vote according to a poll conducted March 26
th
-31
st
by Public Policy Polling.
Senator Cruz has surged into the top tier of candidates and is in a statistical dead-heat with Jeb Bush (16% Cruz vs. 17% Bush) and is within the margin of Walker (20%).
Senator Cruz is consolidating the conservative vote; his surge in support has come at the expense of Carson (-8), Walker (-5), and Huckabee (-4).
o
Another recent national poll provides
more evidence of
uz’
s increased strength
as a candidate.
A CBS News poll shows that the number of Republicans willing to consider Cruz for president has surged 14 points since his announcement.
Willingness to consider Walker has increased only five (5) points and willingness to consider Bush has increased only two (2) points.
Early state GOP primary polls
show Cruz moving into a tie for the lead in key states.
o
In Nevada, Senator Cruz has gained 12 points in GOP voter support moving into a tie for the lead
, garnering 18% of the vote according to a March 27
th
Gravis Marketing poll.
Senator Cruz is now tied with Governor Walker for the lead in the Silver State, both with 18% of the vote.
Scott Walker is clearly moving on a different trajectory than Senator Cruz, as the Wisconsin Governor has lost nine (9) points over the same period.
o
In South Carolina, Senator Cruz has gained 11 points in support among GOP Primary Voters and is in a statistical tie for the lead
,
garnering 13% of the vote according to a poll conducted March 26
th
-27
th
by Gravis Marketing.
Most impressive about this growth is that the Senator has moved into a statistical tie for the lead in the Palmetto state, as he is within the margin of error of Governors Walker (17%) and Bush (16%).
Both Bush and Walker have lost three points.
Cruz is the only candidate to experience positive movement over this period.
Conclusion
Senator Ted Cruz
’s announcement
has resulted in very positive movement among Republican primary voters. These are the only surveys released since Senator Cruz announced and are strong examples of the overall growth in support.
© 2015 WPA Opinion Research Do not copy or distribute without permission Confidential Page 2 of 2 4/2/2015
Methodology Washington Post ABC News
The Post-ABC poll was conducted March 26
th
-29
th
among a random national sample of 444 Republicans and GOP leaning independent interviewed by telephone. The margin of error is ±5.5%.
Public Policy Polling
PPP surveyed 316 Republican primary voters from February 20
th
-22
nd
. The margin of error for the survey is ±5.5%. PPP also surveyed 443 Republican primary voters from March 26
th
-31
st
. The margin of error for the survey is ±4.7%. These surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews and interviews
over the internet to voters who don’t have landline
phones.
CBS News
This poll was conducted by telephone March 21
st
-24
th
among 240 Republicans nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones and interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error for the survey is ±6%.
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random sample telephone survey of 438 Republican Primary voters in Nevada from February 21
st
-22
nd
and a random survey of 443 Republican Primary voters in Nevada on March 27
th
. These polls have a margin of error of ±5%. Gravis Marketing also conducted a random sample telephone survey of 792 registered Republican voters in South Carolina from February 24
th
-25
th
and a random sample telephone survey of 899 registered Republican voters from March 26
th
-27
th
. These polls have a margin of error of ±3%.
The polls were weighted by anticipated voting demographics.
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