WILDROSE, NDP TIED FOR FIRST
April 15th, 2015. A new Mainstreet Technologies poll of 3,121 Albertans finds the Wildrose Party stalled and maintaining support at 24% with the NDP close behind with 23%. With a margin of error of +/- 1.76%, 19/20, the NDP and Wildrose are in a statistical tie. The Progressive Conservatives have dropped another three points to 18%.
“One thing is becoming clear at this stage of the campaign, the effect of the budget and residual anger to the governing PCs will have a lasting impact on the outcome of this election. Although the Wildrose continue to lead, their support is flat and may have no room to grow. The NDP are definitely contenders and have the momentum,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Technologies. "Calgary is now the battleground where 3 and 4 way races are likely." "Among those certain and likely to vote, these numbers continue to show strong Wildrose and NDP support. As we enter the real body of the campaign where more and more people will be paying attention there may be an opportunity for the governing PCs to turn the tide. The window of opportunity for that correction is closing quickly.""This may very well turn in to a two way race again in the coming weeks, but among the unlikeliest two parties we could have predicted just weeks ago. If the NDP begin to challenge Wildrose for the lead, as it appears already, will PCs move to a stagnant Wildrose party? Or will Wildrose voters move back to PC Alberta to stop the NDP momentum?”
Highlights:
- Wildrose and NDP are statistically tied (numbers are within the margin of error)- NDP has increased support; +4% in Calgary, +5% in the Rest of Alberta- Alberta Party support support is up 1%, Undecided has fallen 1%- It’s a three-way race in Calgary with all three parties within the margin of error.-30-
For more information or further comment:
David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Available for interview from Montreal:
Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreettechnologies.ca
Methodology
The poll surveyed a random sample of Alberta residents by Interactive Voice Response (IVR) on April 13th, 2015. All Mainstreet polls include cell phone samples unless otherwise stated. Regional Margins of Error: Edmonton +/- 2.99; Calgary +/- 3.11; Rest of Alberta +/- 3.02.
About Mainstreet Technologies
Mainstreet Technologies is an emerging national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority PC government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election and February’s by-election in Sudbury.
BREAKDOWNS18-3421%11%8%21%4%34%311
35-4913%31%8%26%5%16%482
50-6417%26%8%25%2%23%1052
65+24%34%6%20%1%15%1276Female17%24%7%25%2%25%1757
Male20%24%8%22%5%22%1364
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
EDMONTON16%7%10%39%3%24%1076
CALGARY23%24%11%20%5%17%990
REST OF AB17%29%5%20%3%26%1055
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE
CERTAIN19%28%6%23%3%20%
LIKELY17%10%12%25%6%29%
MIGHT23%16%3%16%1%40%
UNLIKELY8%5%17%25%1%44%PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDEDPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYUNDECIDED
18%24%8%23%3%23%-3%--1%+3%+1%-1%
EDMONTON
21%10%13%51%5%CALGARY27%29%13%25%6%
REST OF AB23%39%7%26%4%
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTY
CERTAIN24%35%8%29%4%
LIKELY24%15%18%35%9%
MIGHT38%27%6%27%2%
UNLIKELY14%10%30%45%1%PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTYPROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSE PARTYALBERTA LIBERAL PARTYALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTY
24%31%10%30%5%-3%--2%+4%+2%CERTAIN/LIKELY24%33%9%30%5%MIGHT/UNLIKELY22%15%22%39%1%
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVEWILDROSEALBERTA LIBERALALBERTA NDPALBERTA PARTY