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Mason-Dixon Polling & Research

Washington, DC

•

202.548.2680

Jacksonville, FL

•

904.261.2444

MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL

®

APRIL 2015

BUSH & RUBIO BOTH LEAD CLINTON IN FLORIDA

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ANALYSIS By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director

Both leading Republican candidates from the Sunshine State now lead Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida. Statewide, former governor Jeb Bush leads Clinton 47%-43% and Senator Marco Rubio, who trailed Clinton in January, has a slightly larger 49%-43% advantage. Predictably, support divides sharply along partisan lines, with Bush and Rubio holding strong leads among Republican voters and Clinton well ahead among Democrats. Bush and Rubio are ahead because both are running stronger with independents. The gender gap, which Clinton hopes to exploit in her quest to become the first female president, is present. However, that gap exposes that her deficit among men is a stronger force than her advantage among women.

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

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Mason-Dixon Polling & Research

Washington, DC

•

202.548.2680

Jacksonville, FL

•

904.261.2444

Clinton’s early campaign struggles have made some Democratic leaders nervous and there is evidence to support that it has trickled down to rank and file party voters. Among registered Democrats, only 39% said they will definitely vote for her in the primary election, while 40% would give strong consideration to another Democratic candidate and 12% would definitely vote against Clinton in the primary.

QUESTION: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Jeb Bush, the Republican?

CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED STATE 43% 47% 10% REGION CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED

North Florida 33% 55% 12% Central Florida 43% 50% 7% Tampa Bay 42% 45% 13% Southwest Florida 37% 55% 8% Southeast Florida 52% 38% 10%

SEX CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED

Men 39% 54% 7% Women 46% 42% 12%

AGE CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED

18-34 46% 40% 14% 35-49 45% 46% 9% 50-64 45% 48% 7% 65+ 38% 51% 11%

RACE/ ETHNICITY CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED

White 32% 57% 11% Black 92% 5% 3% Hispanic 45% 38% 17%

PARTY REGISTRATION CLINTON BUSH UNDECIDED

Democrat 79% 14% 7% Republican 8% 83% 9% Independent 36% 46% 18%

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Mason-Dixon Polling & Research

Washington, DC

•

202.548.2680

Jacksonville, FL

•

904.261.2444

QUESTION: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Marco Rubio, the Republican?

CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED STATE 43% 49% 8% REGION CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED

North Florida 35% 57% 8% Central Florida 40% 52% 8% Tampa Bay 43% 46% 11% Southwest Florida 36% 58% 6% Southeast Florida 53% 40% 7%

SEX CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED

Men 38% 57% 5% Women 49% 41% 10%

AGE CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED

18-34 47% 43% 10% 35-49 45% 47% 8% 50-64 43% 52% 5% 65+ 39% 51% 10%

RACE/ETHNICITY CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED

White 34% 58% 8% Black 84% 7% 9% Hispanic 46% 45% 9%

PARTY REGISTRATION CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED

Democrat 75% 16% 9% Republican 9% 85% 6% Independent 39% 48% 13%