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CBS NEWS POLL For release: Sunday October 11, 2015 10:30 am EDT The 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads
October 4-8, 2015
Donald Trump (27%) remains in the lead in the race for the Republican nomination, with Ben Carson (21%) in second place.
Carson and Trump have the highest favorable ratings among Republican primary voters, but Trump
–
along with Jeb Bush -- also has the highest unfavorable rating.
Jeb Bush’s favorable
rating has dropped 11 points since August.
Among registered voters overall, Trump is viewed more negatively; 53% are unfavorable.
Carson receives strong assessments from Republican primary voters on being honest and caring, while Trump continues to be seen as the strongest leader.
The Race for the Nomination
Donald Trump continues to lead the field nationally in the race to become the Republican nominee for president. 27% of Republican primary voters support Trump, giving him a six point lead over his closest competitor, neurosurgeon Ben Carson (21%). The rest of the Republican field is in single digits, with Texas Senator Ted Cruz inching up into third place with 9%, followed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 8%. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush follow at 6% each. Former Governor Mike Huckabee has also slipped considerably since the summer, from 8% in August to just 2% today.
2016 Republican Nomination for President
(Among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 27% 27% 24% Ben Carson 21 23 6 Ted Cruz 9 5 6 Marco Rubio 8 6 6 Jeb Bush 6 6 13 Carly Fiorina 6 4 * Rand Paul 4 3 4 Chris Christie 3 1 3 Mike Huckabee 2 6 8 John Kasich 2 3 1 Rick Santorum 1 1 1 Bobby Jindal * * 2 George Pataki * * 1 Lindsey Graham -- * * Jim Gilmore -- -- 1
Don’t know
11 9 9
*Less than 0.5%
2 When Republican voters are asked who would be their second choice for the nomination, Ben Carson (20%) and Marco Rubio (18%) are the most mentioned candidates. Among Trump supporters, Carson is the top second choice, far ahead of any other candidate. Seven in ten
Republican primary voters would support Trump if he became the party’s eventual
nominee, though many would have reservations. 29% would support Trump enthusiastically, while 42% would support him with reservations, and another 8% would only support him because he is the
party’s
nominee. One in five Republican primary voters would not support Trump if he became the nominee.
If Trump is Republican Nominee, Would You…
(among Republican primary voters) Total Trump Support Other Voters Supporters Candidate Support him enthusiastically 29% 67% 18% Support him with reservations 42 32 45
Support because he’s the nominee
8 1 12 Would not support him 19 * 25
*Less than 0.5%
Trump continues to be viewed as the most electable candidate in a general election. 35% say Trump has the best chance of winning in November 2016, followed by Ben Carson (18%).
Best Chance of Winning in November 2016
(among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 35% 39% 26% Ben Carson 18 18 1 Marco Rubio 11 5 4 Jeb Bush 10 11 23 Carly Fiorina 7 * -- Ted Cruz 5 4 4
(Table has been truncated. Not all candidates are listed)
Views of the Candidates
Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Fiorina are all viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican primary voters. At 62%, favorable views of Ben Carson are the highest of this group, only 7% are unfavorable. 53% have a favorable view of Donald Trump, and 50% have a positive assessment of Marco Rubio. While
Trump’s unfavorable rating is more
than twice that of either Rubio or Fiorina, many
don’t have an opinion of the latter two candidates
. Former Governor Jeb Bush is now viewed more unfavorably (38%) than favorably (32%) by Republican primary voters.
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Views of the Republican Candidates
(Among Republican Primary Voters) Favorable Not Favorable
Undecided/haven’t heard
Ben Carson 62% 7 30 Donald Trump 53% 29 18 Marco Rubio 50% 12 38 Carly Fiorina 45% 13 40 Jeb Bush 32% 38 30 While the favorable ratings of both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have risen slightly since August among Republican primary voters
, Bush’s favorab
le rating has dropped 11 points.
Favorable Views of the Republican Candidates
(Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 8/2015 Donald Trump 53% 47% Marco Rubio 50% 46% Jeb Bush 32% 43% These Republican candidates are viewed less positively among all registered voters nationwide. Carson has the highest favorable rating among this broader group of voters, and Fiorina is viewed more favorably than not. Voters divide in their views of Rubio. Many voters overall
don’t have an opinion of
these three contenders. 53% of registered voters overall have an unfavorable opinion of Trump
–
the highest of the Republicans asked about. Bush is also viewed negatively.
Views of Republican Candidates
(among registered voters) Favorable Not favorable
Undecided/Haven’t heard
Ben Carson 34% 22 41 Donald Trump 28% 53 19 Marco Rubio 27% 25 46 Carly Fiorina 26% 21 51 Jeb Bush 20% 48 30
Assessing the
“Outsiders”
on the Issues
More Republican primary voters are very confident in Trump than in Carson or Fiorina to handle the economy and immigration. Few Republican primary voters are very confident in the ability of any of the three to handle an international crisis. Still, most Republican primary voters have at least some confidence in the abilities of all three candidates to handle these issues.
