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M
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R
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Study #2128 401 Republican likely caucusgoers October 16-19, 2015 Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans 2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and 402 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions P
ERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO
100%
DUE TO ROUNDING
. Ask only of likely Democratic caucusgoers; Republican caucusgoers, skip to Republican candidate favorability.
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including
[Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible]
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president.
For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so.
(Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Fav Unf Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Not Sure
Barack Obama,
president of the United States
Oct-15
90 7
*
51 39 4 4 2
Aug-15 88 9 43 45 5 4 2 Jun-15 91 7 44 47 5 2 2 May-15 89 9 49 40 6 3 2 Jan-15 86 13 49 37 5 8 1
Joe Biden
, vice president of the United States
Oct-15
85 10 36 49 7 3 5
Aug-15 79
14 29 51 8 6 7 May-15 76 20 22 54 14 6 4 Jan-15 78 20 25 53 14 6 2 Oct-14 60 34 15 45 19 15 6
Lincoln Chafee,
former governor of Rhode Island
Oct-15
14 30
*
2 12 20 11 56
Aug-15 9
11
2 7 6 6 80
Hillary Clinton
, former secretary of state
Oct-15
85 14 39 46 8 6 2
Aug-15 77 19 27 50 10 9 4 Jun-15 88 10 30 58 6 4 2 May-15 86
12
39 46 7 6 2 Jan-15 84 15 46 38 7 8 1 Oct-14 76 19 43 33 8 11 5
Larry Lessig,
a Harvard law professor
Oct-15
10 12 2 8 6 6 78
Martin O’Malley
, former governor of Maryland
Oct-15
43 17
*
8 35 14 4 39
Aug-15 33 7
8 25 5 3 60 May-15 20
8 4 17 5 3 72 Jan-15 13 9 2 11 6 3 78 Oct-14 13 9 2 11 7 2 78
Bernie Sanders
, U.S. senator from Vermont
Oct-15
82 10
*
42 40 6 3 8
Aug-15 73
8 39 34 4 4 19 Jun-15 57 4 27 30 3 1 39 May-15 47 12 23 24 8 4 41 Jan-15 37 12 17 20 8 4 51 Oct-14 29 13 10 19 8 5 58
Jim Webb
, former U.S. senator from Virginia
Oct-15
22 31 3 19 21 10 47
Aug-15 19
12 4 16 10 2 68 May-15 22 9
3 19 7 3 69 Jan-15 21 11 3 18 8 3 68 Oct-14 16 12 1 15 8 4 72
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president?
(Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be?
(If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Q.4a First Choice Q.4b Second Choice Combined First choice with Biden reallocated
Joe Biden
12
23 35 n/a Lincoln Chafee
-
1 1 1 Hillary Clinton
42
31 73 48 Larry Lessig
-
1 1 - Martin O’Malley
2
6 8 2 Bernie Sanders
37
23 60 41 Jim Webb
1
1 2 1 “Uncommitted” (VOL–
only
if respondent says the word “uncommitted.”)
3
3 3 Not sure
3
7 4 No first choice 6
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president?
(Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be?
(If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
First Second Combined
Joe Biden
Oct-15
12 23 35
Aug-15 14 24 38 Jun-15 n/a n/a n/a May-15 8 31 39 Jan-15 9 26 35
Lincoln Chafee
Oct-15
- 1 1
Aug-15 1 - 1 Jun-15 - 2 2
Hillary Clinton
Oct-15
42 31 73
Aug-15 37 23 60 Jun-15 50 18 68 May-15 57 15 72 Jan-15 56 15 71
Larry Lessig
Oct-15
- 1 1
Martin O’Malley
Oct-15
2 6 8
Aug-15 3 8 11 Jun-15 2 10 12 May-15 2 3 5 Jan-15 1 3 4
Bernie Sanders
Oct-15
37 23 60
Aug-15 30 20 50 Jun-15 24 20 44 May-15 16 13 29 Jan-15 5 6 11
Jim Webb
Oct-15
1 1 2
Aug-15 2 1 3 Jun-15 n/a n/a n/a May-15 2 5 7 Jan-15 3 6 9
“Uncommitted” (VOL–
only
if respondent says the word “uncommitted.”)
Oct-15
3 3
Aug-15 6 3 Jun-15 7 8 May-15 6 6 Jan-15 4 3
Not sure
Oct-15
3 7
Aug-15 8 6 Jun-15 16 19 May-15 8 13 Jan-15 6 8
No first choice
Oct-15
6
Aug-15 13 Jun-15 23 May-15 14 Jan-15 10