A
B
C N
E
W
S/
WA
SHI
N
GTO
N P
OST
 P
OLL
: 2016
El
ect
i
o
n
 
T
rac
kin
g No. 7
E
M
B
AR 
GOE
D F
O
R R 
ELE
A
SE
 AF
TE
R 7 a.m.
S
at
u
r
d
ay,
O
ct. 29, 2016
Shift in the Electorate’s Makeup
 T
i
g
ht
e
ns
 
th
e Pre
sid
e
nti
a
l
 Co
nt
e
st
 
 
It’s a
t
a
l
e of
t
wo e
l
ec
t
ora
t
e
s
 
i
n
t
he A
BC
 New
s/
Wa
s
h
i
ng
t
on
P
o
st
 
t
rack 
i
ng po
ll
, w
it
h
s
h
i
f 
ts
 
i
n
i
n
t
ended
t
urnou
t
 
m
ov
i
ng a
l
arge advan
t
age for H
ill
ary
Cli
n
t
on a week ago
t
o a far
ti
gh
t
er 2016  pre
si
den
ti
a
l
 race
t
oday.
F
ro
m
 a 50-
38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct.
20-23,
i
t’s a 47
-45 percen
t
 con
t
e
st
 
i
n
t
he
l
a
t
e
st
 re
s
u
lts
.
The movement has been in Trump’s favor,
+
7, wh
il
e
t
he -3
i
n
Clinton’s
s
uppor 
t
 
is
 no
t
 
si
gn
i
f 
i
can
t
, g
i
ven
t
he
s
a
m
 p
l
e
si
ze.
C
hange
s
 
in the poll’s latest four nights
co
m
 pared w
it
h
t
he prev
i
ou
s
 four are no
t
 
m
a
i
n
l
y abou
t
  peop
l
e
s
h
i
f 
ti
ng
i
n
t
he
i
r cand
i
da
t
e preference, bu
t
 
about changes in who’s intending to vote
. A
m
ong
t
ho
s
e re
s
u
lts
 
i
n
t
h
is
 po
ll
, produced for A
BC
 by Langer
R 
e
s
earch A
ss
oc
i
a
t
e
s:
 
 
 As Trump’s controve
r 
si
e
s
 
l
a
st
 week and
t
he week before
m
ove far 
t
her
i
n
t
o
t
he rearv
i
ew
mi
rror,
R 
epub
li
can
s
 are expre
ssi
ng grea
t
er
li
ke
li
hood
t
o par 
ti
c
i
 pa
t
e
:
 E
i
gh
t
y-one percen
t
 of reg
ist
ered
R 
epub
li
can
s
 now are
li
ke
l
y vo
t
er 
s
, up fro
m
 75 percen
t
 a week ago.
 
2
 In one exa
m
 p
l
e,
t
here are 6 po
i
n
ts
 
m
ore
R 
epub
li
can
s
 and GO
P
-
l
ean
i
ng
i
ndependen
ts
 
s
how
i
ng up
i
n
t
he rank 
s
 of non-co
ll
ege wh
it
e wo
m
en. Th
is
 group wa
s
 broad
l
y for Tru
m
 p a few week 
s
 ago,
t
hen
l
e
ss
 
s
o
; it’s now
 back, favor 
i
ng h
im
 by 59-29 percen
t
. Loo
s
e
l
y aff 
ili
a
t
ed or re
l
uc
t
an
t
 
Cli
n
t
on
s
uppor 
t
er 
s
 
l
ook
l
e
ss
 
li
ke
l
y
t
o vo
t
e, perhap
s
 g
i
ven
t
he
i
r
s
en
s
e
s
he can w
i
n w
it
hou
t
 
t
he
m
 
 –
 a
s
uppo
siti
on
t
ha
t
 
l
ook 
s
 
l
e
ss
 re
li
ab
l
e
t
oday. Vo
t
e preference
s
 a
ls
o are par 
t
 of
t
he
mi
x. A
t
 
its
 
l
owe
st
 ear 
l
y
t
h
is
 week, 82 percen
t
 of
R 
epub
li
can
s
 
supported Trump. It’s 86 percent now. And his share of Republicans and
GO
P
-
l
ean
i
ng
i
ndependen
ts
 ha
s
 ga
i
ned 6 po
i
n
ts
, fro
m
 78
t
o 84 percen
t
. Tru
m
 p, fur 
t
her, ha
s
 gone fro
m
 a 6-po
i
n
t
 def 
i
c
it
 
t
o a 16-po
i
n
t
 advan
t
age a
m
ong
i
ndependen
ts
, w
it
h
m
ore
R 
epub
li
can
l
eaner 
s
 
i
n
t
he
i
r rank 
s
. A
m
ong o
t
her exa
m
 p
l
e
s
 of par 
tis
an
s
h
i
f 
ts
 
i
n
t
urnou
t
,
t
he
s
hare of wh
it
e
li
ke
l
y vo
t
er 
s
 who are De
m
ocra
ts
 or
l
ean
t
ha
t
 way
is
 down by 5 po
i
n
ts
. The
s
hare of wh
it
e wo
m
en who are
R 
epub
li
can
s
 or GO
P
 
l
eaner 
s
 
is
 
+
6 po
i
n
ts
, and
l
eaned De
m
ocra
ts
 are down 7 po
i
n
ts
 
i
n
t
h
is
 group. And
t
he
s
hare of 18- 29-year-o
l
d
s
 who are
R 
epub
li
can
s
, or
l
ean
t
ha
t
 way,
is
 
+
6,
t
hough
still
 
l
ow, wh
il
e
l
eaned De
m
ocra
ts
 age 18-29 are -9 po
i
n
ts
.
M
any of
t
he
s
e re
s
u
lts
 are no
t
 
st
a
tisti
ca
ll
y
si
gn
i
f 
i
can
t
 
t
aken a
l
one, g
i
ven
t
he
s
a
m
 p
l
e
si
ze
s
 
 –
 bu
t
 
t
he
s
e
sm
a
ll
 
s
h
i
f 
ts
 add
t
o
t
he
l
arger
t
rend
s
. Ano
t
her way
t
o cu
t
 
t
he da
t
a
is
 
t
o
t
ake a
ll
 e
i
gh
t
 wave
s
 of
t
rack 
i
ng, w
it
h
i
n
t
erv
i
ew
s
 a
m
ong 2,303
li
ke
l
y vo
t
er 
s
, a robu
st
 
s
a
m
 p
l
e
si
ze
;
 
t
ha
t
 produce
s
 a 48-42 percen
t
 con
t
e
st
,
simil
ar
t
o
t
he average
i
n A
BC/P
o
st
 po
lls
 
si
nce
J
u
l
y.
B
u
t
 do
i
ng
s
o
s
e
ts
 a
si
de
t
he dyna
mi
c
s
 of
t
he pa
st
 week. Tha
t
 
s
a
i
d,
t
he dyna
mi
c
s
 can con
ti
nue
t
o
s
h
i
f 
t
. Wh
il
e preference
s
 
i
n recen
t
 pa
st
 e
l
ec
ti
on
s
 have  been
st
ab
l
e,
t
here are prev
i
ou
s
 exa
m
 p
l
e
s
 of w
il
d r 
i
de
s
.
M
o
st
 no
t
ab
l
e
is
 1992, when, a
m
ong
m
any gyra
ti
on
s
,
Bill
 
Cli
n
t
on wen
t
 fro
m
 an 11-po
i
n
t
 
l
ead
t
o a 3-po
i
n
t
 gap
i
n
si
x day
s
 
l
a
t
e
i
n
t
he race
 –
 a
s
h
i
f 
t
 
m
uch
li
ke h
is
 w
i
fe
is
 exper 
i
enc
i
ng
i
n her con
t
e
st
,
t
he
s
e 24 year 
s
 
l
a
t
er.
M
ETHODOLOGY
 –
 Th
is
 A
BC
 New
s/
Wa
s
h
i
ng
t
on
P
o
st
 po
ll
 wa
s
 conduc
t
ed by
l
and
li
ne and ce
ll
u
l
ar
t
e
l
ephone Oc
t
. 24-27, 2016,
i
n Eng
lis
h and
S
 pan
is
h, a
m
ong a rando
m
 na
ti
ona
l
 
s
a
m
 p
l
e of 1,148
li
ke
l
y vo
t
er 
s
.
R 
e
s
u
lts
 have a
m
arg
i
n of
s
a
m
 p
li
ng error  of 3 po
i
n
ts
,
i
nc
l
ud
i
ng
t
he de
si
gn
 
effec
t
.
P
ar 
tis
an d
i
v
isi
on
s
 are 37-29-29 percen
t
, De
m
ocra
ts
-
R 
epub
li
can
s
-
i
ndependen
ts
. Q5-6 were a
s
ked Oc
t
. 25-27 a
m
ong 956
li
ke
l
y vo
t
er 
s;
 
t
ho
s
e re
s
u
lts
 have a 3.5-po
i
n
t
 error
m
arg
i
n. The
s
urvey wa
s
 produced for A
BC
 New
s
 by Langer
R 
e
s
earch A
ss
oc
i
a
t
e
s
 of New York, N.Y., w
it
h
s
a
m
 p
li
ng, da
t
a co
ll
ec
ti
on and
t
abu
l
a
ti
on by Ab
t
-
SRB
I of New York, N.Y.
S
ee de
t
a
ils
 on
t
he
survey’s methodology
here. Ana
l
y
sis
 by Gary Langer.
 
3
 A
BC
 New
s
 po
lls
 can be found a
t
 A
BC
 NEW
S
.co
m
 a
t
 h
tt
 p
://
abcnew
s
.co
m/
 po
lli
ngun
it
.
 
M
ed
i
a con
t
ac
ts:
 Hea
t
her
Ril
ey, (212) 456-4396, or
J
u
li
e Town
s
end, (212) 456-4934.
F
u
ll
 re
s
u
lts
 fo
ll
ow.
*= less than 0.5 percent 1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? ---- Closely ---- ---- Not closely ---- No NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion 10/27/16 LV 94 66 28 6 3 3 * 10/26/16 LV 93 64 29 7 4 3 * 10/25/16 LV 92 62 30 7 5 3 * 10/24/16 LV 93 65 28 7 4 2 * 10/23/16 LV 94 66 28 6 4 2 * 10/22/16 LV 94 71 23 6 4 2 * 10/13/16 LV 94 66 28 5 4 1 1 9/22/16 LV 92 60 32 8 5 3 * 9/8/16 LV 92 59 33 8 5 3 * 1/24/16 RV 84 39 45 16 10 6 * 11/19/15 75 30 45 25 13 12 * Call for full trend. 2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don't think Already Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op. 10/27/16 RV 77 6 4 3 1 9 * 10/26/16 RV 78 6 4 3 * 8 * 10/25/16 RV 79 6 5 3 * 6 * 10/24/16 RV 78 7 5 4 1 5 * 10/23/16 RV 79 7 5 3 1 5 * 10/22/16 RV 80 7 5 2 1 5 * 10/13/16 RV 85 6 5 3 1 1 0 9/22/16 RV 83 7 6 3 * 0 * 9/8/16 RV 81 8 6 5 1 NA * 8/4/16 RV 81 8 6 4 1 NA * 7/14/16 RV 79 10 5 3 1 NA 1 6/23/16 RV 79 8 7 4 2 NA * 5/19/16 RV 80 9 5 3 2 NA * Call for full trend. 3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [(Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats), (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans)], [(Gary Johnson and Bill Weld of the Libertarian Party) and (Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka of the Green Party)], for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward [(Clinton and Kaine), (Trump and Pence)], [(Johnson and Weld) or (Stein and Baraka)]? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, did you vote for...? NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
 –
 LIKELY VOTERS None Would
View on Scribd
Back to document