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Memo

To:

George and Jonathan Soros, Peter and Jonathan Lewis, Herb and Marion Sandler, Steve Bing, John Sperling, Michael Vachon

From:

Andy Stern, Anna Burger, and John Podesta writing as private citi!ens"

Date:

Septe#ber $%, $&&%

RE:

STRATEGIC

OUTLOOK FOR THE 2008 ELECTIONS

'his #e#o outlines our analysis o( the political landscape and progressive strengths and wea)nesses going into the $&&* elections+ t is intended as bac)ground (or our #eeting on Septe#ber $%

th

, $&&%, and not as a concrete set o( reco##endations about what to do in the upco#ing year+ -ur proposed agenda (or this #eeting is included in the acco#panying docu#ent+Although the prospects (or continued electoral gains are solid.and the assets o( the progressive #ove#ent (ar better than in years past.several gaps re#ain to be (illed+ /hie( a#ong these is better connection between ground activity and substantive content and #essaging+ n order to win ne0t year, we #ust do a better 1ob o( controlling the public dialogue and overall (ra#ewor) o( the election+ ( $&&* is about President Bush, a responsible e0it (ro# ra2, achieving universal health care, tac)ling our energy proble# and global war#ing, and helping econo#ically stressed(a#ilies, we will li)ely score sweeping victories+ ( $&&* is about the wea)nesses o( our candidate, congressional stasis, terroris#, ta0 hi)es, and (ear o( radical change, we could easily (all bac) and lose progress on #ultiple (ronts+ 3e suggest that you )eep in #ind the (ollowing strategic goals as we try to develop a (ra#ewor) (or electoral activity in $&&*4

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Create the condton! "or a tda# $a%e a&an!t the GO'(

'he sta)es o( the election need to (it the historical #o#ent+ 'he country is #assively o(( trac)+ 5othing will change until Bush and his supporters are out and new leaders are in .leaders who will be willing and able to do what is necessary (or the country+ /orruption and the war set the stage (or victory in $&&6+ A li)ely downturn in the econo#y, the protracted war in ra2, rising ine2uality and 7epublican resistance to change can help set the stage (or widespread gains up and down the ballot in $&&*+ 'his #ust again be a nationali!ed election in ter#s o( scope and #essage+

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Kee) the 're!dent*! n+m,er! do$n and ,rand a## con!er%at%e canddate! a!-.+!h Re)+,#can!(/

Bush8s la#e duc) status cannot be allowed to create space

Strate&c O+t#oo "or the 2008 E#ecton!

(or the 7epublicans to clai# the #antle o( change or conservative principle+ 'he 7epublican presidential candidate will atte#pt to be the true heir o( 7onald 7eagan and #ay try to position hi#sel( as an agent (or change, Sar)o!y style+ 3e#ust continually re#ind voters that the no#inee and all the rest o( the 7epublicancandidates are the residual (orces o( the (ailed Bush years+

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E1)#ot the )artc+#ar $eane!!e! o" the Re)+,#can )re!denta# nomnee(

Beyond tying the candidate to Bush, we #ust not be shy about re#inding voters o( the personal (aults and character li#itations o( the 7epublican Party leader+ 'he current crop o( candidates is relatively un)nown to A#ericans and will be ripe (or de(inition through serious opposition research and #edia wor)+ 'his will not happen organically+ t will re2uire sustained pressure and a willingness to play politics by their rules+

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En!+re that demo&ra)hc! ! de!tn(

An 9e#erging progressive #a1ority: is a realistic possibility in ter#s o( de#ographic and voting patterns+ But it is inco#plete in ter#s o( organi!ing and political wor)+ 3o#en, co##unities o( color, and highly educated pro(essionals are core parts o( the progressive coalition+ 5ationally, and in )ey battleground states, their in(luence is growing+ Latinos and young voters are 2uic)ly solidi(ying in this coalition as well+ But #any o( these voters are new to the process+ All o( these groups.in addition to wor)ing class voters and independents pic)ed up in $&&6.will re2uire signi(icantlong;ter# engage#ent in order to )eep the# reliably on our side+

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Contro# the )o#tca# d!co+r!e(

So #uch e((ort over the past (ew years has been(ocused on better coordinating, strengthening, and developing progressive institutions and leaders+ 5ow that this enhanced in(rastructure is in place. grassroots organi!ing< #ulti;issue advocacy groups< thin) tan)s< youth outreach< (aith co##unities< #icro;targeting out(its< the netroots and blogosphere.we need to better utili!e these networ)s to drive the content o( politics through a strong 9echo cha#ber: and #essage delivery syste#+

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Set the !ta&e "or "+t+re )ro&re!!%e acton!(

All o( this electoral activity will be(or naught i( we do not si#ultaneously advance a larger vision (or why progressive change is necessary and how speci(ic progressive legislation will achieve these goals+ Should progressives win in $&&*, the ne0t president and /ongress will (ace serious challenges in both cleaning up the #ess o( the Bush years and #oving signi(icant re(or#s in health care, energy, (oreign policy and ra2, poverty and #obility+

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Lea%e !omethn& ,ehnd(

3e should thin) o( invest#ents in $&&* as building bloc)s (or ongoing strategic ca#paigns and issue wor) in $&&= and beyond+ Si#ply getting progressives elected will not be enough to #aintain the political pressure and support necessary to pass progressive legislation and build a long;ter#, wor)ing #a1ority+ $

Strate&c O+t#oo "or the 2008 E#ecton!3HAT IS 4ICTOR5 IN 20086

7epublicans argue that $&&6 was an aberration in an otherwise ascendant center;right #a1ority built on conservative do#inance on national security and econo#ic issues and strong support (ro# white voters, the South and Heartland, and (a#ilies in rapidly growing e0urban counties+ 'his interpretation does not hold up given the results o( $&&6+ $&&6 was a watershed year (or progressives and the >e#ocratic Party+ >e#ocrats pic)edup ?& House seats and 6 Senate seats (or sli# #a1orities in both+ >e#ocrats won 6 governor8s seats and now hold a $* to $$ state advantage+ 'hey pic)ed up ?$? state legislative seats and now control both legislative cha#bers in $? states and all three branches in @ states+ 'he party holds a ;state advantage in ter#s o( Secretary o( State seats and a @=;state advantage a#ong state attorneys general positions+ n addition, all 6 states with #ini#u# wage initiatives passed the #easure, #ost inde0ing the #ini#u# wage to in(lation+ And o( @% #easures to li#it the power o( govern#ent, only one passedin AC although it was the only state to re1ect a gay #arriage ban"+ 3hile these gains are not unprecedented, they are on par with the 7epublican turn in @== and constitute a signi(icant shi(t in electoral ground toward progressives and >e#ocrats+ However, (urther realign#ent to progressives and the >e#ocrats is by no #eans inevitable+ -utside o( a national crisis, continued gains are li)ely to be slower and#ore (iercely contested+ n #any ways, the sta)es in $&&* will be greater than in previous elections+ 'he conditions o( the country have grown #ar)edly worse over the past (ew years and i( we do not continue to build and sustain electoral power at all levels .and replace outgoing leaders with true progressives.the prospects (or (unda#ental change will di#+ deal victory in $&&* will re2uire  pri#ary acco#plish#ents4

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A >e#ocratic president with an e0panded geographical base and ?&& or #ore electoral votes+ Sen+ John Derry received $$ electoral votes in $&&+"

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Getting within stri)ing distance o( 6& votes in the Senate and holding the House with a strengthened #a1ority+

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Signi(icant strengthening o( base >e#ocratic voters and (urther solidi(ication o( wavering independent and #oderate voters+

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Additional gains in the @@ gubernatorial races and strengthening o( state legislative control in the lead up to redistricting a(ter $&@&+

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A clear #andate (or progressive action on the issues we care #ost about4 (inancial security and opportunity (or low; and #iddle;inco#e voters, universal ?