Title :
(S//NF) France: 2012 Presidential Election
Originator Classification :
SECRET//NOFORN
Levy date :
2011/11/17
Originator Classification :
SECRET//NOFORN
TypeStart CoverageStop CoverageExpiresLast Edited
Limited Duration2011/11/212012/07/312012/09/292011/11/17 13:22Z
(U//FOUO) Supported Element(s):
STATE/INRDIA/USEUCOMCIA
Related Non-SIGINT Discipline(s) :DisciplineComment
HUMINT(S//REL TO USA, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZL) Additional versions of this requirement have been sent to HUMINT collectors.OSINT(U//FOUO) Alternative versions of requirements have been tasked to OSC
Related IN Number(s) :
2005-348
Background/Justification :
(S//NF) Analysts in CIA's Office of Russian and European Analysis (OREA) closely watched the Oct 9th and Oct 16th Socialist primaries and will be closely monitoring the April 22nd and May 6th 2012 Presidential elections. Of particular interest is President Sarkozy, the Socialist Party (PS), and other potential candidate's plans and intentions for these elections. Analysts assess that the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the current ruling party, is not assured ofwinning the presidential election and, as a result, analysts are interested in the electoral strategyof the non-ruling parties listed below. Additional information on these topics will help analysts assess, and prepare key US policymakers for, the post-election French political landscape and the potential impact on US-France relations.
Guidance for UCS :
(C//NF)
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please contact
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CIA/DI Office of Collection Strategies and Analysis (CSAA), IC E-Mail
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@cia.ic.gov, NSTS phone 935-
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. (S//NF) These requirements are NOFORN due to Friends-on-Friends sensitivities.(S//NF) French political parties and persons of interest include:A. (S//NF) Socialist Party (PS)B. (S//NF) National Front (FN)C. (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)D. (S//NF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK)E. (S//NF) Nicolas SarkozyF. (S//NF) Martine AubryG. (S//NF) Francois HollandeH. (S//NF) Marine Le Pen
EEI
: A
EEI Classification
: SECRET//NOFORN
Originator EEI Classification
: SECRET//NOFORN
EEI Title
: (S//NF) Sarkozy and Contenders Strategic Election Plans
Question(s)
:1. (S//NF) Report on deliberations by Sarkozy, or other high level government officials regarding the presidential candidates in the 2012 election.2. (S//NF) Report efforts by Sarkozy, the Socialist party, or others to manage the 2012 elections, including:A. (S//NF) Discussions that indicate Sarkozy's level of confidence in his ability to contest the election.B. (S//NF) Attempts to pass guidance or directives to parties or individuals on supporting activities or initiatives.C. (S//NF) How Sarkozy and his advisors interact.3. (S//NF) Report any discussions regarding guidance from Sarkozy or Martine Aubry, FrancoisHollande, or Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the upcoming elections.
SIGINT sub-discipline(s)
:
COMINT
The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORNTopic/Geopolitical/PriorityCitationTopicTopicIDBandMBBGeopoliticalAreaNationalPriorityContributionSIGINTPriority
9A2011-572-01DEPS/Democratization and Political StabilityDEPS.ZADIPFranceXKey9
Reporting Criteria :Report TypeDelivery MechanismReporting Timeline
EGRAMElectrical Message72 HoursAfterRecognition/Detection
PROFORMA Datalinks : No