INTRODUCTION
The difference between an American and any other kind of person is that an American lives in anticipation of the future because he knows it will be a great place.
— Ronald Reagan (199!
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he "ipper believed many silly things—in voodoo economics and#in the case of his $hite %ouse astrologer# &ust plain voodoo—butone
T
thing Reagan truly
knew
was that the Americans he would lead wereoptimistic people# and that their optimism made an otherwise disparate anddivided land a functional and thriving nation. 'n 199# Reagan was righthe was still right when he left office in 19)9. *y +,,+# Reagan would have been wrong- A ma&ority of Americans no longer believed their childrenwould live better lives than their parents—and that was
before
the crash of +,,) and eight years of lackluster recovery.
+
*y +,1# American optimismhad shrunk into the form of a tacky hat (/0ake America "reat Again2! peddled by a serial corporate bankrupt who could not manage to make hisshambolic empire great even once# let alone /again.2
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That was not how itwas supposed to be.The goal of American politics has been# until the advent of the*oomers# the creation of a /more perfect 4nion2 and the promotion of the/general $elfare2 to /secure the *lessings of 5iberty to ourselves and our 6osterity.2
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The 8onstitution promises as much# and over time America generallymade good on that promise# first to a few# then to many. *y the twentiethcentury# constitutional abstractions had taken concrete form# and/*lessings2 in the modern vernacular were understood to mean thecreation of an ever larger and more affluent middle class. 'f the middle wasnot doing well# neither was America. ames 8arville# the operative who brought *ill 8linton to power as the first *oomer president# understoodthat modern politics boiled down to /'t:s the economy# stupid.2 And the8ouncil of ;conomic Advisers (8;A! has made clear how to evaluate thateconomy- the / well< being of the middle class and those working to get
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into the middle class . . . is the ultimate test of an economy:s performance.2
=
0easured against the 8onstitution:s noble imperatives or the more prosaic words of 8arville and the 8;A# America generally madea great success of things for two centuries. >ince the *oomers: ascensionto power# America has accomplished far too little# and in many importantways# has slid backward.A /more perfect 4nion2 is hard to measure# but the economy and thewell< being of the middle class are not. These latter items can be reduced tonumbers# and what the numbers show is not reassuring. A family with astatistically middling income can no longer afford the trappings of anactual m iddle< class life- the nice house# college tuition# decent cars# theannual vacation# appropriate health care# some prudent savings# and perhaps a little left over to pass as a legacy. That life would re?uiresomething like @1,,# ,,,1=,#,,, in annual family income# depending ongeography and taste# but actual family income was &ust @,#9 in +,1=.
As for the /6osterity2 that obsessed the Bounders# it may do considerablyworse.The difference between what is and what could have been issubstantially the product of *oomer mismanagement and selfishness. %adAmerica pursued more reasonable policies# it might have continued the pattern of growth of the golden years after $orld $ar '' and before thearrival of *oomer power. Bamily income in +,1= could have been around@1,#,,, to @1++#,,, (or @113#7+= to be misleadingly precise!. 'n other words# the actual middle class could afford genuinely m iddle< class lives.;ditorialists would never have had to switch ad&ectives from /comfortable2to /struggling2 when discussing the midriff of the income distribution. ——
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$130,000$110,000$90,000$70,000$50,000
Median Family Income ($2015)
$30,000$10,000
1947
Mid ProjectionLo Projection!i"# Projectionct%al Family Income
19511955195919&319&719711975197919'319'71991199519992003200720112015
Family I ncome—What Is and What Could Have Been
What’s going on hee!
This is a /counterfactual2—the path American family incomes would have taken if they had keptgrowing at pre< *oomer rates. 4nder all pro&ections incomes would have been substantially higher than they are today. The/mid2 estimate pro&ects incomes as if they had grown in eCactly the same way# year by year# with all the ups and downs# asthey had in the p re< *oomer period through the 1 9)119)+ recession. The /low2 and /high2 estimates construct smoothaverages# respectively including and eCcluding the early ;ighties recession. 'n every scenario# there have been substantial lostopportunities# with gaps really widening as *oomer power and policies took hold. Done of this is to say that America hasn:tgrown# it &ust hasn:t grown as fast or e?ually as it could have or once did.
The numerical gap is compelling in an abstract way# but the loss can be felt most viscerally in# of all places# Blushing 0eadows# Eueens. 6eople passing from BF to 0anhattan# or watching aerial shots of the4> Gpen# may have noticed s aucer< topped towers and a strange steel globe# artifacts left by aliens with a
Mad Men
aesthetic# right in the 0eadows. These oddities are the neglected remnants of the 197 $orld:sBair# which promised a world of flying cars# undersea colonies# clean energy# mass prosperity# cities on themoon# and more.
That
was what the early twenty< first century was supposed to be like. The Bair:s promotional video promised# in full mid< century sincerity# a time when the /science of plenty2 delivered a ——
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