B.C. ELECTION 2017
Mainstreet surveyed a stratified random sample of 1,650 British Columbians from May 5-6, 2017 through Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened to confirm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines were included. Responses were weighed using demographic information to targets based on the 2011 Census.The margin of error for survey results is ± 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Greater Vancouver specific results, the margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Vancouver Island specific results, the margin of error is ± 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For Rest of BC results, the margin of error is ± 4.64 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.Riding Surveys were conducted seperately.430 voters were surveyed in Saanich North & the Islands. The margin of error is ± 4.69 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.425 voters were surveyed in Fraser-Nicola. The margin of error is ± 4.72 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.460 voters were surveyed in Delta North. The margin of error is ± 4.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.411 were surveyed in Surrey-Fleetwood. The margin of error is ± 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, Presidentquito@mainstreetresearch.caIn Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice President. david@mainstreetresearch.caIn Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President joseph@mainstreetresearch.caFind us online at:www.mainstreetresearch.catwitter.com/MainStResearchfacebook.com/mainstreetresearch
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EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM PST, MAY 8, 2017PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
When this election began a few short weeks ago, Christy Clark found herself in a familiar position, she was once again the underdog to the renewed NDP under leader John Horgan. Like in 2013, her BC Liberal led government had suffered from a prolonged series of scandals, “cash for access” was perhaps the best known across Canada but other local issues like Yoga-gate and issues with both Education and Healthcare, the top two responsibilities of any Provincial government. Housing affordability had become a big problem across greater Vancouver and continues to be a great concern. Environmental protection became a growing concern with the federal approval of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, and opponents vowed to fight the Provincial and Federal governments on this issue. Among her most vocal opponents on Kinder Morgan was Vancouver Mayor, Gregor Robertson.The campaign itself was bitter and nasty at times, including the #IAmLinda twitter campaign that dogged the BC Liberal leader for days on the campaign trail. With two weeks to election day, the NDP had opened up a nearly 10 point lead and the Green Party was stealing just as many votes from BC Liberals as they were from the NDP. It seemed like a very different election than the last time around.Andrew Weaver and the Green party have been an x factor in this election and are headed for a historic result on May 9th that should not be overlooked. They will not form government, they will not be the official opposition, it’s quite likely that their goal of reaching official party status may also fall just short, but that is not clear. They will register the highest percentage of the popular vote ever recorded for a Green Party in any Canadian jurisdiction. They will likely have the highest seat count of any Green Party in any Canadian jurisdiction. That result on Tuesday should shake up BC politics for the next few years, and should be an encouraging sign for Elizabeth May and the federal Green Party who have failed to make gains despite repeated efforts.John Horgan and the NDP have run a decent campaign, they have not made some of the same mistakes that his predecessor Adrian Dix made in 2013. Not making big mistakes however, is not the yardstick by which campaigns looking to uproot incumbent governments are measured. Horgan’s debate performances were received largely positively, but his favourability with voters, and his inability to shake his “angry” reputation, will ultimately serve to keep him in the Opposition Leader chair.Ultimately, this election will be largely like 2013, another BC Liberal majority government. Our research across North America and other jurisdictions is consistent on a single principle, the economic climate dictates the “mood” of the electorate. Although affordable housing has been a growing concern, jobs and the economy have been the top issue identified by numerous polls and pollsters. While house prices have soared in greater Vancouver, causing concerns, many more have benefitted from the increases. Despite the yet unfulfilled promise of a massive LNG market, the BC economy has done well while maintaining balanced budgets unlike most other Canadian Provinces. Which brings me back to the title, Déjà vu all over again, a famous quote from Yogi Berra. Christy Clark and the BC Liberals will emerge again on top, solidifying Christy Clark’s title as the “comeback kid” and sending the NDP back to the drawing board. We conducted polls in 4 ridings that we believe are bellwethers; Surrey-Fleetwood, Delta-North, Saanich North & The Islands and Fraser-Nicola. This points to significant candidate and incumbent strength that will make the difference in close races. The province-wide numbers plus the 4 ridings where we have BC Liberals leading puts the BC Liberals at the 44 seats needed for a majority, and using those riding results as an indicator for other close ridings, points to the possibility of significantly more.
It’s Deja Vu All Over Again
Quito Maggi, President