September 11, 2017 Media Contact: Peter Hall emersonpoll@emerson.edu 617-824-8737
Emerson College Poll: Moore with Significant Lead Over Strange for GOP US Senate Nomination in Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones in statistical tie with both Republicans for General Election.
A new Emerson Poll finds Alabama incumbent Senator Luther Strange trailing former Judge Roy Moore by 14 percentage points with about two weeks until the Special Election on September 26. Moore polled at 40% while Strange was at 26%. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters were undecided, and the survey had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points. Voters in Alabama gave President Trump a 52% job approval and 36% disapproval, but that popularity has not transferred to his endorsed candidate Strange, as voters who approve of the President are breaking for Moore 51% to 32%. Supporters of Republican Congressman Mo Brooks who grabbed 20% in the GOP primary in August appear to be splitting their vote between Moore and Strange, with about 1/3
rd
breaking for each candidates and the last third undecided. Regardless of who wins the divisive GOP nomination it appears Democrat Doug Jones will start in a competitive position for the General election as he trails Strange 40% to 43%, and Moore 40% to 44%, well within the polls 4.8% margin of error. The GOP primary may have left supporters of both candidates unwilling at this time to support their party rival. Of those voting for Moore in the primary, 25% said they will vote for Jones and 49% said they would vote for Strange in the General. Similarly, Strange supporters found 31% voting for Jones and 34% voting for Moore. The GOP will need to find a way to unite during the 11 weeks until the General Election, or face the prospect of Jones pulling off an upset. If Jones were to win, Alabama could send their first Democrat to the US Senate in over 20 years. The Emerson College Polling Society, under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball presents these findings based on a poll of Likely Voters in Alabama, for the Republican Special Election September 26, 2017 and of all likely voters for the December 12 General Election. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area probabilistic sample of registered voters from Aristotle International. The overall sample size was N= 416 with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases. In the Republican Primary the sample was n= 355 with a MOE of +/- 5.2 percentage points. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and was conducted September 8-9, 2017.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census and voting behavior data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup with age and gender. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect. Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll. The podcast is available on iTunes, Stitcher and the CLNS Media Mobile App. Visit our website at www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com and follow us on Twitter @EmersonPolling.
Alabama Survey Instrument
1.
Are you currently registered to vote with a political party?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Democrat 135 32.5 32.5 32.5 Republican 214 51.4 51.4 84.0 Ind/Other 61 14.7 14.7 98.7 NR 6 1.3 1.3 100.0 Total 416 100.0 100.0
2.
Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s performance in office?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Approve 214 51.5 51.5 51.5 Disapprove 151 36.4 36.4 87.9 No Opinion 32 7.8 7.8 95.7 Unsure 18 4.3 4.3 100.0 Total 416 100.0 100.0
3.
How likely are you to vote in Alabama’s Republican Primary special election on
September 26, to fill the U.S. Senate seat?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Already Voted 85 20.5 23.7 23.7 Likely Voter 234 56.2 64.8 88.5 Somewhat Likely 42 10.0 11.5 100.0 Total 361 86.7 100.0 Missing System 55 13.3 Total 416 100.0
4.
If the September 26 Republican primary special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat was held today, who would you vote for?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Moore 142 34.1 40.0 40.0 Strange 92 22.2 26.0 66.0 Undecided 121 29.1 34.0 100.0 Total 355 85.4 100.0 Missing System 61 14.6 Total 416 100.0
5.
Who did you vote for in the August 15
th
special primary election to fill the U.S. Senate seat- Press 0 if you did not vote and press star at any time to repeat answer choices.*
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Someone else/did not vote 148 35.5 41.5 41.5 Strange 69 16.5 19.3 60.8 Moore 98 23.6 27.6 88.4 Brooks 41 9.9 11.6 100.0 Total 355 85.4 100.0 Missing System 61 14.6 Total 416 100.0
6.
How likely are you to vote in Alabama’s special General election on December 12 to fill
the U.S. Senate seat?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid VL 347 83.4 83.4 83.4 SWL 39 9.4 9.4 92.8 50/50 30 7.2 7.2 100.0 Total 416 100.0 100.0
7.
If the General Election for US Senate was held today and the candidates were Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Luther Strange, who would you vote for?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Jones 165 39.6 39.6 39.6 Strange 179 43.1 43.1 82.7 Undecided 72 17.3 17.3 100.0 Total 416 100.0 100.0