PEACEW RKS
THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR
Arif Rafiq
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BARRIERS AND IMPACT
Cover and table of contents image: A portion of the map of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Highways Network. Map redrawn by Robert Cronan/ Lucidity Information Design, LLC.The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace.
United States Institute of Peace
2301 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20037Phone: 202.457.1700 Fax: 202.429.6063 E-mail: usip_requests@usip.org
Web: www.usip.org
Peaceworks No. 135. First published 2017.ISBN: 9781601276827© 2017 by the United States Institute of Peace
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BOUT
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EPORT
This report clarifies what the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor actually is, identifies potential barriers to its implementation, and assesses its likely economic, socio-political, and strategic implications. Based on interviews with federal and provincial government officials in Pakistan, subject-matter experts, a diverse spectrum of civil society activists, politicians, and business community leaders, the report is supported by the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
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BOUT
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Arif Rafiq is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, a political risk analysis company specializing in the Middle East and South Asia. He is also a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute and a fellow at the Center for Global Policy. The author is grateful to Moeed Yusuf, Colin Cookman, and the Asia Center at USIP for their generous support for this research project, and would like to thank the anonymous peer reviewers for their constructive feedback.
PEACEWORKS • OCTOBER 2017 • NO. 135
CONTENTS
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Introduction
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5
From Gwadar to CPEC
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What is CPEC?
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7
Potential Impact
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Political Barriers
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31
Economic Barriers
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42
Recommendations
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50
Appendix
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55
[The ultimate benchmarks for the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be whether it boosts industrial productivity, exports, and job creation in Pakistan, putting the country on a path toward sustained, high levels of equitable economic growth.]