MEMORANDUM TO: Major Donors and SuperPAC Directors FROM: Rick Shaftan, Atlantic Media and Research @shaftan RE: Survey, Alabama 11/18-21 DATE: 11/22/17  Atlantic Media and Research completed 623 surveys of Alabama voters who had participated in both the 2014 and 2016 general elections and said their chances of voting in the December 12
th
 special election for U.S. Senate were
“
definite
”
 or
“
very likely.
”
 The theoretical margin of error is +/- 3.9 percent in 95 percent of cases at a 50 percent response level. All calls  were made by live operators to both landlines and cellphones from our facilities in Rodanthe, North Carolina. 43 percent of respondents were reached on cellphones and 27  percent are identified on the voter file as being African- American. The project was completed at the request of several  major SuperPAC donors. SUMMARY Republican Roy Moore holds a 43-40 lead over Democrat Doug Jones under a
“
 worst case
”
 weighting scenario where younger voters turn out at a level equal to that in the 2014 general election.  Moore led 43-37 in the raw data. Both candidates have high negatives. Roy Moore has a favorable rating of 31 percent and an unfavorable rating of 39 percent. But Jones is also a net negative, with just 32 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably. These numbers are a bigger problem for Jones than Moore, however. While 88 percent of Jones unfavorables are voting for  Moore, Jones is only able to win 75 percent of Moore unfavorables, while Moore still holds 8 percent of their votes.  Moore also runs strongly with the 11 percent of voters who have a mixed opinion of him, winning 71 percent among those voters. By contrast, Jones gets only 43 percent of the 5 percent of
 
voters with a mixed opinion of him. Those with a mixed opinion on Moore are essentially favorable.  While many voters continue to look at Moore with an open mind, there is little room for Jones to grow outside of his Democratic Party base because few conservative voters are abandoning Moore in this very conservative state.  When asked to describe their personal ideology, 30 percent said they were
“
very liberal
”
,
“
somewhat liberal
”
 or
“
 moderate
”
 and Jones was leading by 79-12 with these voters. But 55 percent of voters said they were
“
somewhat conservative
”
,
“
very conservative
”
 or
“
libertarian
”
 and Moore holds a 68-12 lead there. Put another way, 9 percent of liberal and moderate voters are undecided, versus 20 percent of conservative-leaning voters. That
’
s a big problem for the man known as
“
 Abortion Jones
”
, who is personally a 10-54 net negative among this  majority group.  When we asked Jones favorables what they liked about their candidate, 25 percent said he was honest, fair or moral, 15  percent said he was against Moore, 11 percent like his record as a prosecutor, 9 percent that he was a Democrat, 9 percent like him personally, 9 percent like his views, 4 percent say he is for the people, 4 percent say he can bring Republicans and Democrats together. 3 percent say he wants to help Alabama.  Among black Jones favorables, 33 percent call him honest, 12  percent like him personally, 12 percent mention his  prosecutorial record, 11 percent like his views, 7 percent like that he is a Democrat, 7 percent say he is for the people, 4  percent say he is a bipartisan unifier.  Among non-black Jones favorables, 25 percent say he is anti- Moore (not mentioned by blacks), 19 percent say he is honest, 11  percent like that he is a Democrat, 7 percent like views, 6  percent like him personally, 5 percent say he is a bipartisan unifier, 4 percent say he wants to help Alabama.  With Jones unfavorables, 37 percent mention his pro-abortion  position, 33 percent dislike that he is a Democrat or Liberal, 7  percent say he is running a smear campaign against Moore, 6  percent dislike him personally, 6 percent dislike his views, 4
 
 percent dislike that he is running against Moore, 2 percent call him a liar.  With Moore favorables, 22 percent say he stands up for what he  believes, 21 percent like his Christian values, 8 percent like that he is conservative, 8 percent mention that he is Republican, 8 percent like his views, 7 percent say he is fighting media lies, 5 percent call him honest, 4 percent say he is pro-life, 2 percent call him a good man, 2 percent say he is running against Jones.  Among those softer Moore supporters who have a mixed opinion of him, 24 percent like that he is conservative, 22 percent mention his Christian values, 17 percent like that he stands up for what he believes, 17 percent mention that he is Republican, 6 percent like his views.  With Moore unfavorables, 32 percent mention the allegations, 16  percent say he was thrown off the court twice, 9 percent dislike him personally, 7 percent call him a hypocrite who uses God, 7  percent call him a liar, 5 percent say he is a zealot, extreme or too conservative, 3 percent say he is a grandstander or demagogue, 3 percent mention that he is Republican, 2 percent dislike his record, 2 percent dislike his views on gay marriage.  Among those with a mixed opinion on Moore, 58 percent mention the scandal, 8 percent that he was removed from the court, 6  percent say he is a zealot, 6 percent call him a liar and 5  percent a grandstander. There is no gender gap in this race with Moore up by 3 with both  men and women. Those identified on the voter file as African- American are voting 74-9 for Jones. Moore wins all others by 54-26. Jones leads 41-40 with voters under 65 while Moore holds a solid 48-33 lead among those 65 and over. UNDECIDED VOTERS The remaining undecided voters lean right and represent low-hanging fruit for the Moore campaign to pick up in the coming  weeks. 57 percent consider themselves conservative or libertarian, a higher proportion than the electorate as a whole.  Moore
’
s unfavorable is (only) 34 percent with these voters (Jones
’
s is 20 percent).
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