World Economic Outlook
October 2018
Challenges to Steady Growth
World Economic and Financial Surveys
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Names: International Monetary Fund.itle: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79 HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-48437-679-9 (paper) 978-1-48437-719-2 (Web PDF) 978-1-48437-735-2 (ePub) 978-1-48437-736-9 (Mobi)he
World Economic Outlook
(WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. he WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 20, 2018. he views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation:
International Monetary Fund. 2018.
World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth.
Washington, DC, October.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA el.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@imf.org www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.imf.org
International Monetary Fund
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October 2018
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Assumptions and Conventions ixFurther Information xData xiPreface xiiForeword xiiiExecutive Summary xviChapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
Recent Developments and Prospects 1Forces Shaping the Outlook 9Te Forecast 12Policy Priorities 23Scenario Box 1. Global rade ensions 33Box 1.1. Increasing Market Power 36Box 1.2. Growth Outlook: Advanced Economies 39Box 1.3. Growth Outlook: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 40Box 1.4. Inflation Outlook: Regions and Countries 42Box 1.5. Sharp GDP Declines: Some Stylized Facts 43Box 1.6. Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Daunting ask 48Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Recent rends in Energy Demand 52Box 1.SF.1. Te Demand and Supply of Renewable Energy 60References 68
Online Annexes
Annex 1.SF.1. Commodity Special Feature
Chapter 2. The Global Recovery 10 Years after the 2008 Financial Meltdown 71
Introduction 71Persistent Post–Global Financial Crisis Deviations in Output 73Policy Frameworks, Measures, and Postcrisis Output Performance 78Summary 84Box 2.1. Te Global Financial Crisis, Migration, and Fertility 86Box 2.2. Te Employment Impact of Automation Following the Global Financial Crisis: Te Case of Industrial Robots 90Box 2.3. Te Role of Financial Sector Repair in the Speed of the Recovery 93References 97
Online Annexes
Annex 2.1. Data Sources and Country Coverage Annex 2.2. Additional Details on Quantifying Postcrisis Deviations in Activity from Precrisis rends Annex 2.3. Robot Diffusion and Its Employment Impact in the Aftermath of the Crisis
CONTENTS