An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS
VICTORIA A. GREENFIELD, BLAS NUÑEZ-NETO, IAN MITCH, JOSEPH C. CHANG, ETIENNE ROSAS
Published in 201
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Preface
This report presents initial findings from a scoping study titled “Economic Value of Human Smuggling to Transnational Criminal Organizations.” A primary goal of this study, which was completed in less than two months, was to develop a preliminary estimate of transnational criminal organizations’ (TCOs’) revenues from smuggling migrants from the Northern Triangle region of Central America—consisting of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—to the United States. In addition, we sought to establish what is known or knowable about the characteristics, including the structure, operations, and financing, of TCOs that engage in human smuggling along those routes. From the start, we intended to frame any revenue estimate as a range to accommodate a short study period and considerable uncertainty; however, as the research progressed, we encountered further challenges. We learned that human smuggling involves many different types of actors and that we could not credibly distinguish most TCOs’ activities and revenues from those of other actors, including ad hoc groups and independent operators, that engage in human smuggling. Thus, we could provide, at best, a range for revenues to all types of smugglers, largely irrespective of their affiliations. Although our findings are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, they represent a contribution to the evidence base informing ongoing U.S. government efforts to address threats to homeland security posed by TCOs and other actors that participate in human smuggling. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can use the insights provided in this report regarding the characteristics of human-smuggling operations to help shape policies and prioritize resources to counter that threat. The findings will also be of interest to others in the policy community, including those who undertake research on its behalf. This research was sponsored by DHS’s Science and Technology Directorate and conducted within the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program of the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center federally funded research and development center (FFRDC).
About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center
The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation operates the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) as an FFRDC for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007.