www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com
CONFIDENTIAL – DO NOT COPY OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION
MEMO: FLCD16 POLLING RESULTS
From:
Matt Mitchell, mmitchell@datatargeting.com
To:
Vern Buchanan Campaign
Date:
17 January 2020 We have completed our second tracking survey for the Vern Buchanan campaign since Margaret Good entered the race in the summer of 2019. And for the second survey in a row, Congressman Buchanan holds a 20-point lead (53% to 33%) over Representative Good districtwide. Below are our key observations from the survey we conducted: -
Congressman Buchanan’s lead is steady across CD16 including in Representative Good’s own 72
nd
State House District.
In HD72, Buchanan leads Good by a 51% - 35% margin. -
Buchanan’s lead also remains strong across key demographic groups that decide elections in CD16.
Buchanan enjoys a 51% - 25% lead among Independent voters, a group that a Democrat candidate will need to carry by a wide margin in order to defeat a Republican in District 16. And Buchanan posts a 22-point lead (56% to 34%) with voters over age 65, another key constituency that will account for roughly 40% of all votes cast in CD16 in the 2020 general election. -
Meanwhile Congressman Buchanan’s name recognition stands at a near 2:1
ratio of favorable to unfavorable
,
indicating a strong personal position in a tricky political environment
. 42% of respondents viewed Congressman Buchanan favorably to 22% of respondents with an unfavorable opinion of him. Buchanan’s net favorable name ID stood in the double digits across all three counties in CD16, and he enjoyed net positive favorable name ID across all age groups in the district.
www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com
CONFIDENTIAL – DO NOT COPY OR DISTRIBUTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 2
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted on the evenings of January 14-16, 2020 among registered voters in Florida’s 16
th
Congressional District. Voters were selected for our survey sample based on their predicted probability of voting in the 2020 general election, a probability derived from Data Targeting’s proprietary modeling program that predicts an individual voter’s likelihood of voting in a given election. A total of 400 voters completed our survey, which was conducted by telephone using live interviewers who spoke to respondents on both landline and mobile phones. Results are weighted to voter turnout in the 2016 general election by age, race, gender, party and county, and have a margin of error of +/- 4.9% within a 95% confidence interval.