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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Remington Research Group RE: Key Findings: FL-SD-27, 2020 Republican Primary Election DATE: July 29, 2020
Issues with the St. Pete Poll
A recent poll found a 41-point spread between candidates for Florida Senate District 27 Ray Rodrigues and Heather Fitzenhagen. It is prudent to note that this poll was conducted 100% through Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling, a method that uses an automated system to call voters on their landlines. As of March 2020, 52% of Republican Primary voters reported that they
did not have a landline
. That means the methodology of this poll
eliminates half of the likely voters
before the first call was ever made. In addition, outdated IVR methodology skews the survey to include far more voters in the senior demographic than are actually represented in the district. Overall, IVR polling has been proven to be far less accurate than contemporary polling methods. Another recent poll conducted by Remington Research Group uses polling methods that take these issues into account, using methods that reach older voters with traditional landlines, as well as younger and middle-aged voters that communicate via cell phone. The key findings of that poll are described herein.
Key RRG Poll Findings
The latest polling conducted by Remington Research Group denotes Heather Fitzenhagen can win the election if she delivers the right negative messages about Ray Rodrigues to the voters. When she jumped into the race in mid-June, the Florida Republican Senate Campaign Committee immediately launched negative smear attacks against her on airwaves and in mailboxes. Those attacks have eroded her early advantage. However, the following messages against Ray Rodrigues prove that Heather can even the playing field.
Uninformed Ballot
Candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Heather Fitzenhagen and Ray Rodrigues. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Heather Fitzenhagen: 22% Ray Rodrigues: 44% Undecided: 34%
Messages
Ray Rodrigues is bought and paid for by political hacks in Tallahassee and the corrupt political establishment. They're spending thousands of dollars to get him elected because they know he will be a puppet for their special interest agenda. More likely: 19%
Less likely: 48%
No difference: 33%
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www.RemingtonResearchGroup.com
Big Sugar owns Ray Rodrigues. They are funneling thousands of dollars into his campaign account and launching false attacks against his conservative Republican opponent. A vote for Sugar Ray is a vote against Florida's water. More likely: 19% Less likely: 48% No difference: 34% The Everglades Foundation and other groups who work to improve Florida's water quality oppose Ray Rodrigues because they know Sugar Ray is dangerous and will work to destroy Florida's water quality at the direction of Big Sugar. More likely: 18% Less likely: 50%
No difference: 32%
Informed Ballot
Candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Heather Fitzenhagen and Ray Rodrigues. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Heather Fitzenhagen: 31% Ray Rodrigues: 36% Undecided: 34% The anti-Ray Rodrigues messages shift the ballot from -22 to -5.
Conclusion
Ray Rodrigues and FRSCC went up on TV immediately in the first 10 days spreading blatant lies about Heather Fitzenhagen. Heather was outspent by Rodrigues and his establishment support early in the campaign in both TV and mail by around $1 million to $350,000 which hurt her favorability and ballot share. Despite the spending deficit, the hits against Ray are powerful, especially when highlighting his alliance with Big Sugar. If the Pro-Fitzenhagen side communicates these hits at the same level as the Pro-Ray side, Heather Fitzenhagen can win this race.
Methodology
1,229 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.