MEMORANDUM
To:
Bishop Aubrey Shines, Chairman, Conservative Clergy of Color
From:
Robert Cahaly, The Trafalgar Group
Date:
08-31-2020
Re:
Minnesota Statewide “Black Lives Matter” Perception Poll
_____________________________________________________________
The Trafalgar Group’s Minnesota BLM Perception survey revealed various noteworthy items and consistent voter opinions. The surveys were conducted via phone, text, email and other digital platforms to ensure the poll takers comfort and anonymity resulting in the fullest participation and most honest answers. There were 1141 respondents (margin of error of 2.98%) randomly selected from a pool of likely 2020 general election voters, based on our proprietary 2020 turnout modelThe first question (Do you approve or disapprove of Black Lives Matter?) best represents what so many other polls ask in that it doesn’t make a distinction between the movement at large and the cause in specific. That support has fallen to 53% (82% among black voters) as compared with various polls since the protests began. Noteworthy is the fact that this question is most affected by “social desirability bias” (the tendency of research subjects to choose responses they believe are more
socially
desirable or acceptable rather than choosing responses that are reflective of their true thoughts or feelings); and therefore, likely the least representative of respondent true sentiments,The “Do you believe Black Lives Matter has made race relations better, worse or about the same?” question is much more revealing. With 45% (13% among black voters) believing things are worse compared to 34% believing things better (50% among black voters) and 20% about thesame (50% among black voters).“Agree or Disagree: Black Americans should be paid reparations to make up for slavery and discrimination.” These results demonstrate that 66% of voters (50% among black voters) believe that the BLM movement and protests are not having the desired impact.Lastly the “Do you Agree or Disagree: Black Americans should be paid reparations to make up for slavery and discrimination” question also provides a glimpse into the most divisive issue in this space. With 73% opposing reparations (26% among black voters and over 50% with all other ethnicities and party affiliations).In conclusion, the survey suggests the voter consensus that BLM needs to successfully advocate for the more popular changes they have built a movement around, no longer exist. More importantly the reason for this loss of voter confidence is ongoing violence conducted in BLMs name as well as the organization’s own actions and revelations of their full agenda. As it stands now the BLM brand is too damaged in Minnesota to be effective.
# # #