MEMO: FLCD16 POLLING RESULTS
From:
Matt Mitchell, mmitchell@datatargeting.com
To:
Interested Parties
Date:
22 October 2020We have completed our third survey for the CD16 general election since the August primaryelections. Congressman Buchanan continues to post a strong lead over Margaret Good, besting the Democrat by a 53% to 38% margin districtwide. -
Buchanan’s lead remains strong across key demographic groups that decideelections in CD16.
Buchanan posts a 12-point lead (53%-41%) with voters over age65 and a 28-point lead (61%-33%) with voters 50-64 years of age. Failing to competefor the senior vote in a district like CD16 makes a Democrat’s path to victoryextremely (and perhaps impossibly) narrow.-
Representative Good has seen her name ID grow in the last month, but herunfavorable name recognition has more than tripled
since early September
. Inearly September, just 8% of respondents had an unfavorable impression of Representative Good. As of this week, 26% of respondents now view Goodnegatively. Combined with a steep net -38% name recognition figure withRepublicans (7 fav / 45 unfav), Good is struggling mightily to gain traction with thedemographic groups with whom a Democrat needs to perform competently in order to win District 16.
www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted on the evenings of October 19 through October 21, 2020 amongregistered voters in Florida’s 16
th
Congressional District. Voters were selected for our surveysample based on their predicted probability of voting in the 2020 general election, a probability derived from Data Targeting’s proprietary modeling program that predicts anindividual voter’s likelihood of voting in a given election. A total of 400 voters completed our survey, which was conducted by telephone using liveinterviewers who spoke to respondents on both landline and mobile phones. Results areweighted to voter turnout in the 2016 general election by age, race, gender, party and county,and have a margin of error of +/- 4.9% within a 95% confidence interval.
www.DataTargeting.com | (352) 332-2115 | service@datatargeting.com
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