The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan: causes, effects, and regional perspectives
September 2021
Mr. Gilles-Emmanuel JACQUET
Researcher
Geneva Institute of International Relations
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After 20 years of military intervention and spending $1-2 trillion
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, the United States of America completed the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. Other foreign allies such as the United Kingdom, France, or Germany also proceeded to the evacuation of their troops, citizens, local Afghan partners, and Afghans whose experience or connection to foreigners could put their lives at risk. The rapid collapse of the Afghan National Army, security forces, and government, followed by the Taliban's return to power, as well as reassuring statements made by the Taliban and uncertainties regarding their real intentions, raise questions about the outcome of the 2015-2020 US-Taliban negotiations, the future of Afghanistan and concerns about the potential effects of these events on the regional political and security environment.
The collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: how and why did it happen?
The chaos surrounding the withdrawal of foreign troops, the evacuation of US diplomatic staff and Afghan allies or civilians from Kabul airport led many critiques of US foreign interventions to draw parallels with the capture of Saigon by the People's Army of Vietnam on 30 April 1975. This comparison may not be totally relevant with regard to the context of these two conflicts, but there is a strong sense of «
déjà vu
». Both conflicts took the form of «
proxy wars
». They raise similar questions about the outcome of a prolonged foreign military intervention aiming at sustaining an allied government against insurgent forces supported by neighbouring countries or regional powers. The comparison between the Soviet and US-led interventions in Afghanistan could also raise similar questions as both powers were promoting Western or European ideologies (Marxism-Leninism and Liberalism). Still, there is a noticeable difference: the USSR fought for ten years, and the government of Mohammad Najibullah survived for three years, while US-led coalition forces fought for twenty years. The government of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai collapsed in 3 months.
The attempts of thousands of Afghans to escape created a chaotic situation at Kabul airport, aggravated by rumours, testimonies from foreigners stranded in Kabul
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, and uncertainties about future evacuation flights as a tight deadline had been set to August 31
st
. This atmosphere of panic was exacerbated by the bombing attack committed by ISIS-K at Kabul airport on August 26
th
, killing more than 100 civilians and 13 US troops.
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This dramatic event was followed by two US drone strikes targeting ISIS-K militants in Nangarhar province on August 27
th
and a vehicle considered as a potential threat in Kabul on August 29
th
.
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The
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Aisha Majid, “
How much did the Afghanistan war cost the US
?”, New Statesman, 16 August 2021, https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2021/08/how-much-did-afghanistan-war-cost-us
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“
American stranded in Afghanistan pleads for help
»,
Fox News, 18 August 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADVRAKrEVNA
3
Rob Picheta, “
What to know about ISIS-K, the terror group claiming responsibility for the Kabul airport attack
”, CNN, 27 August 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/27/asia/isis-k-explainer-afghanistan-kabul-attacks-cmd-intl/index.html
; Yaroslav Trofimov, Nancy A. Youssef and Sune Engel Rasmussen,
“
Kabul Airport Attack Kills 13 U.S. Service Members, at Least 90 Afghans
”, Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-kabul-airport-explosion-11629976397
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“Kabul airport faces new threat as US withdrawal deadline nears”,
Financial Times, 28 August 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/efc7732d-7dc2-4e72-8788-a716617dd96e
;
“US launches air strike in Kabul to
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crowds of Afghans at the gates of Kabul airport and the fears expressed by many of them with regard to possible Taliban reprisals showed the lack of trust existing among many locals towards the new
de facto
authorities, as well as traumatic memories with regard to the previous Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (1996-2001): from August 14
th
to August 28
th
, 113,500 Afghans have been evacuated by the USA or with their help.
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The predictable outcome of long-standing and growing problems
:
The collapse of the Afghan government and the rise to power of the Taliban could be expected, as it is the result of various factors and increasing problems over two decades. Foreign political assistance faced multiple challenges related to Afghanistan's domestic issues such as the weak structure and capacities of the Afghan State, ethnic and religious division, poverty, corruption, opium production, the influence of warlords and former Mujahideen commanders (such as Ismail Khan, Atta Mohammad Noor, Abdul Rashid Dostom), as well as the growing presence of Taliban fighters since 2007-2009 and their ability to control 40 to 70% of Afghanistan over the last four years.
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In spite of foreign political and financial support since 2001, the Afghan state structure remained weak, and Afghanistan is still considered a «
failed
» state. Over the last two decades, the Afghan state was affected by interconnected phenomena such as nepotism, corruption (fueled by the revenues from opium production or the embezzlement of foreign funds), and tribalism / «
warlordism
».
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The Afghan state is also affected by the lack of diversification and the lack of development of the country's economic system. Agriculture remains the largest sector, accounting for more than 25% of the country's GDP and employing more than three-quarters of the Afghan population.
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Despite eradication efforts, opium production remains an important part of the agricultural sector. It accounts for 20% to 32% of the country's GDP (US$ 4.1-6.6 billion)
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, with 24 provinces out of 34 growing opium poppies. 69% of the
thwart second attack on airport”,
; Yew Lun Tian,
“Taliban says U.S. drone strike in Kabul also killed civilians - Chinese state TV”,
Reuters, 30 August 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-condemns-us-drone-attack-kabul-chinese-state-tv-2021-08-30/
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“
US launches air strike in Kabul to thwart second attack on airport
”, Financial Times, 29 August 2021,
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Bill Roggio, “
Taliban controls or contests 40 percent of Afghan districts: SIGAR
”, The Long War Journal, 01 May 2017, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/05/taliban-controls-or-contests-40-percent-of-afghan-districts-sigar.php
; Bill Roggio, “
Mapping Taliban control in Afghanistan
”, The Long War Journal, https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan
; Shoaib Sharifi and Louise Adamou, “
Taliban threaten 70% of Afghanistan, BBC finds
”, BBC News, 31 January 2018
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«
Malek Setiz
: “We must move with the times”
», International Federation for Human Rights, 30 March 2014, https://www.fidh.org/en/region/asia/afghanistan/15040-malek-setiz-we-must-move-with-the-times
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“
FAO in Afghanistan
”, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, http://www.fao.org/afghanistan/en/
; “
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) – Afghanistan
9
“
Afghanistan Opium Survey 2017, Challenges to sustainable development, peace and security
”, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Narcotics Survey Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, May 2018, p.5, Afghanistan_opium_survey_2017_peace_security_web.pdf (unodc.org)