Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

One of the things we‟ve been consistent on in the last several weeks was the concept of buying/owning the U.S. Dollar. This market continues to look like it wants to head higher. I‟m not sure where the upper end of this move might lead to, therefore this is one of those trades where you “stay long until your wrong.” In other words, keep raising the “stops” and keep holding the length. There‟s a decent chance we‟re still looking at an “expanding” triangle from the lows; we could be just in the middle of an explosive -e- wave higher. Bulls should consider using 82.21 and 81.19 as supports, or “stop” areas for long positions. Any break of the blue uptrend line should certainly cause a full blow exit of any long trades.
(a)

-e(c)?

REPRINTED from 7/22/2012
-c(b)?

-a-

-d-

-b-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support
The idea of an “expanding triangle” has been our model for several weeks now. We will continue to maintain this count, though confidence is waning a bit. If we were in the midst of an expanding triangle e-wave, the market should have been rocketing higher. Primary support lies at 81.19 and/or the well-defined uptrend line (blue dashed). Bulls should be exiting the DXY on violations of those levels. In the meantime… “hold „em if you got em.”
[x]?

-e(c)?

(a)

-c[y]?

(b)
[w]?

-a-

-d-

-b-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance
Our last message (7/1/2012) on the S&P500 suggested more choppy action higher and that it was a market that traders should just stay away from for a few weeks. It appears that a corrective move higher has completed. It looks like a seven-legged “diametric” has finished. If this is correct, then the S&P 500 should start collapsing. 1373 is the small 61.8% retrace of the most recent move down. Traders should consider using that as first level “stop loss” on shorts. Second level resistance should lie at 1,389 (78.62%). 1345/1325 look like 1st and 2nd supports for anyone who “really wants” to be long this market….trading below those levels would represent a full breakdown in the market.
[b]

-b-?
(g) (e) (x) (c)
1373

[a] [c] (w) [b] (a)

(f) (d) (b)

REPRINTED from 7/22/2012

[a]

[c] (y)

-a-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance
This has become a very confusing market pattern with all the „whipsaw‟ you would like. The shorter term posture must be “on the sidelines” while waiting for greater clarity. The “Fibbo technicians” out there get another “opportunity” to sell the 61.8% retrace at 1362, but it doesn‟t look like a good sell the second time around. This looks like a market that wants to probe higher levels. The good news for the bears is that the move up from 1266 is definitely only corrective in nature. The bad news is the Friday move went out „like a boss‟ and showed no signs of peaking. Bulls should consider 1330 as support, but again, this market is so choppy and unpredictable right now, it makes little sense to even be involved.

REPRINTED from 7/1/2012

(y)?
[c]

(w)?
[c]

[a]

[b] [a]

[b]

(x)?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance
This has become an extremely difficult and complex corrective pattern higher. Our initial labeling on 7/1 may turn out to be correct ,though it would be considered a “triple” now (abc-x-abc-x-abc). Confidence in the count is low, though. This is a market we will be staying away from in the short term…until there is some resolution. Weekly support is well blow spot prices, at 1354 at 1329. Resistance should now come in at 1415, the previous peak in the market and an [a]=[c] target.

(z)
[c]?

[a]

(y)
[c] [a]

(w)
[c]

1354

[b] [a]

[b]

1329

(x)

[b]

(x)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Note to Readers:
Due to my time being more constrained by my business and family, these reports/updates will become more “sporadic” in nature. My goal will be to put out updates whenever markets become “more interesting.” Thanks for reading.

Best,
-AT

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author‟s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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