Concept Evaluation and Selection

Prepared by: We’am Obaidat Supervised by: Dr. Abdullah Dwairi

Introduction
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Concept Evaluation implies both comparison and decision making. The Goal : To expend the least amount of resources on deciding which concepts have the highest potential for becoming a quality product. The Difficulty: To choose the best concept with very limited knowledge and data on which to base this selection. Design is learning, and resources are limited The greater knowledge about the concept, the fewer surprises

Introduction-cont.

Two Types of Comparisons
Absolute: Alternative concept is compared directly with a target set by a criterion  Relative: Alternatives are compared with each other using measures defined by the criteria.  Possible only when there is more than one option. For comparisons, the alternatives and criteria must be:  In the same language (meters vs. long)

At the same level of abstraction

Concept Evaluation Techniques  o o o o o o There are many techniques used to evaluate concept such as: Feasibility Judgment GO/NO-GO Screening Basic Decision Matrix Weighted Decision Matrix Advanced Decision Matrix Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) .

Concept Evaluation Techniques .

– It is worth considering.Evaluation based on Feasibility Judgment  Three Immediate Reactions of a Designer as a concept is generated based on designer’s “gut feel”: – It is not Feasible. – It might work if something else happens.  A comparison based on experience and knowledge .

Concept is different . ask “Why is it not feasible?” .Technologically infeasible . or – a concept is not invented here (less ego-satisfying). .NIH • Make sure not to discard an idea because: – a concept is similar to ones that are already established.Evaluation based on Feasibility Judgment  Implications of Each of these Reactions: – It Is Not Feasible • Before discarding an idea.Not meeting customer’s requirements .

the possibility of obtaining currently unavailable information. • To judge a concept workable if something else happens. .Evaluation based on Feasibility Judgment – It is Conditional. or the development of some other part of the product. • Factors are the readiness of technology.

.Evaluation based on Feasibility Judgment – It is Worth Considering • The hardest concept to evaluate is one that is not obviously a good idea or a bad one. If sufficient knowledge is not immediately available. • Such a concept requires engineering knowledge and experience. it must be developed using models or prototypes that are easily evaluated. but looks worth considering.

• A concept with a few no-go responses may be worth modifying rather than eliminating • This type of evaluation not only weeds out designs that should not be considered further. but also helps generates new ideas.Evaluation based on GO/NO-GO Screening Measures for deciding to go or no-go: 1– Criteria defined by the customer requirements: • Absolute evaluation by comparing each alternative concept with the customer requirements. .

Evaluation based on GO/NO-GO Screening 2– Readiness of the technologies used: • This technique refines the evaluation by forcing an absolute comparison with state-of-the-art capabilities. • The Technology must be mature enough that its use is a design issue. • There are high incentive to include new technologies in products. not a research issue. .

a consultant or vendor is added to the team.Evaluation based on GO/NO-GO Screening • 6 Measures for a Technology’s Maturity: Are the critical parameters that control the function identified? – Are the safe operating latitude and sensitivity of the parameters known? – Have the failure modes been identified? – Can the technology be manufactured with known process? – Does hardware exist that demonstrates positive answers to the preceding four questions? – Is the technology controllable through the product’s life cycle? – • If these questions are not answered in the positive. .

8. 2. 9. 5. Select decision criteria Formulate decision matrix Clarify design concepts being evaluated Choose “Datum” or best initial concept Compare other concepts to Datum based on +. . -.Evaluation based on a Basic Decision Matrix  Decision-Matrix Method (or Pugh’s Method): 1. better solution concepts Select a new “datum” concept and rerun analysis Plan further work. S scale. 7. Evaluate the ratings: important to discuss concepts strengths and weaknesses. 6. combined. 4. Second working session to repeat above and select a concept. 3. Good discussion can lead to new. Often new needs for information and concepts come from first meeting.

3 Con.Criterion Manufacturing Cost Easier Opening Impor tance Con. 1 Con.5 25 15 S + S S S S S + Easier to remove leaflet Easier to remove CD Hinge doesn’t come apart Stacking stability More secure locking Fits hand better 9 15 10 9 10 7 S S + S + S S + S S S + + S S + + + + S S + S S + + + + D A T U M Total + Total Overall total Weighted total 3 0 2 1 3 1 3 1 5 1 3 1 2 2 4 35 -3 23 9 42 . 4 Con. 2 Con.

no. of (-) = 3-1=2 Weight Total for concept 2= 25*(-1) + 15*0 + 9*0 +15*1 + 10*0 + 9*0 + 10*0 + 7*1 = -3 From above table Concept 5 is the best .Evaluation based on a Basic Decision Matrix Notes from above example:     Value of S = 0 Overall Total for concept 3= no. of (+) .

Evaluation based on a Weighted Decision Matrix      Develop a criteria weighting matrix Select interval scale for evaluation scoring Create weighted decision matrix and sum weighted evaluations. Select highest value Consider combining strengths of various concepts and rerunning with new concepts .

Evaluation based on a Weighted Decision Matrix .

Evaluation based on a Weighted Decision Matrix .

Evaluation based on a Weighted Decision Matrix .

”  . requirement. incompleteness. • Belief (virtual sum of knowledge and confidence) can be expressed on a “Belief map. we need to improve the method used to evaluate the alternatives (step 4 in decision-matrix method).Robust Decision Making Robust decision refers to make decisions that are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. and evolution of the information that they are based on.  For robust decision making. or specification.  Word Equations used for Robust Decision Making – Satisfaction = belief that an alternative meets the criteria – Belief = knowledge + confidence • Belief is the confidence placed on an alternative’s ability to meet a target set by a criterion. based on current knowledge.

Belief Map .

Belief Map-Cont. .

5 Belief=.5 . Belief=1 Belief=0 Belief=.Belief Map-Cont.

then belief = 0.) .5 • Step 5: Compute Satisfaction – Satisfaction = S (belief x importance weighting) • Max satisfaction = 100 (evaluator is 100% satisfied.Evaluation based on Advanced Decision Matrix • Steps 1 through 3: same as the Decision Matrix Method • Step 4: Evaluate Alternatives – Use a belief map for comparison – If little is known or the evaluation result is that the alternative possibly meets the criterion.

Evaluation based on Advanced Decision Matrix .

Evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process       Use Saaty’s fundamental scale for pairwise comparison Determine weighting factors on criteria Determine ratings for each concept relative to each factor by fractional quantitative or qualitative ranking or pairwise comparison between concepts for each criteria. Create decision matrix Highest weighted sum is selected. Software: Expert Choice .

Evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process .

Evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process .

Evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process .

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Evaluation based on Analytic Hierarchy Process .

Decision Management Method Selection Logic .

. .Information Presentation in Concept Evaluation  o There are two ways to present the information in Concept evaluation: Design-build-test cycle: building physical models or prototypes.For New technology or complex known technology o Design-test-build cycle: developing analytical models and simulating (i.e. .For systems that are understood and can be modeled mathematically. . testing) the concept before any thing built.

Information Presentation in Concept Evaluation Design-build-test cycle Design-test-build cycle .