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CHAPTER 7

Stocks, Stock Valuation, and Stock Market Equilibrium

Topics in Chapter

Features of common stock Valuing common stock Preferred stock Stock market equilibrium Efficient markets hypothesis Implications of market efficiency for financial decisions
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The Big Picture: The Intrinsic Value of Common Stock


Free cash flow (FCF)

Dividends (Dt) D2 D1 D + + ... + (1 + rs )1 (1 + rs)2 (1 + rs)

ValueStock =

Market interest rates Market risk aversion

Cost of

Firms debt/equity mix Firms business risk

equity (rs)

Common Stock: Owners, Directors, and Managers


Represents ownership. Ownership implies control. Stockholders elect directors. Directors hire management. Since managers are agents of shareholders, their goal should be: Maximize stock price.
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Classified Stock

Classified stock has special provisions. Could classify existing stock as founders shares, with voting rights but dividend restrictions. New shares might be called Class A shares, with voting restrictions but full dividend rights.
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Tracking Stock

The dividends of tracking stock are tied to a particular division, rather than the company as a whole.

Investors can separately value the divisions. Its easier to compensate division managers with the tracking stock.

But tracking stock usually has no voting rights, and the financial disclosure for the division is not as regulated as for the company.
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Different Approaches for Valuing Common Stock

Dividend growth model


Constant growth stocks Nonconstant growth stocks

Free cash flow method (covered in Chapter 11) Using the multiples of comparable firms

Stock Value = PV of Dividends


^

P0 =

D1 (1 + rs)1

D2 (1 + rs)2

D3

++

(1 + rs)3

(1 + rs)

What is a constant growth stock? One whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g.
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For a constant growth stock:


D1 = D0(1 + g)1 D2 = D0(1 + g)2

Dt = D0(1 + g)t

If g is constant and less than rs, then:


^ = D0(1 + g) = D1 P0 rs g rs g
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Dividend Growth and PV of Dividends: P0 = (PV of Dt)


$
Dt = D0(1 + g)t Dt PV of Dt = (1 + r)t

0.25

If g > r, P0 = !
Years (t)
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What happens if g > rs?


^

P0 =

D0(1 + g)1 D0(1 + g)2


(1 + rs)1

(1 + rs)2

++
^

D0(1 + rs)
(1 + rs)

If g > rs, then

(1 + g)t
(1 + rs)t

> 1, and P0 =

So g must be less than rs for the constant growth model to be applicable!!


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Required rate of return: beta = 1.2, rRF = 7%, and RPM = 5%.

Use the SML to calculate rs: rs = rRF + (RPM)bFirm = 7% + (5%)(1.2) = 13%.


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Projected Dividends

D0 = $2 and constant g = 6%

D1 = D0(1 + g) = $2(1.06) = $2.12 D2 = D1(1 + g) = $2.12(1.06) = $2.2472 D3 = D2(1 + g) = $2.2472(1.06) = $2.3820

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Expected Dividends and PVs (rs = 13%, D0 = $2, g = 6%)


0
g = 6%

2 2.2472

3 2.3820

2.12 1.8761 1.7599 1.6508


13%

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Intrinsic Stock Value: D0 = $2.00, rs = 13%, g = 6%


Constant growth model:
^ P0 = D0(1 + g) D1 = rs g rs g $2.12
0.13 0.06 =

$2.12
0.07

= $30.29.
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Expected value one year from now:

D1 will have been paid, so expected dividends are D2, D3, D4 and so on.
D2 ^ $2.2472 P1 = = rs g 0.07 = $32.10

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Expected Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield (Year 1)


D1 $2.12 Dividend yield = = = 7.0%. P0 $30.29 ^ P1 P0 $32.10 $30.29 CG Yield = = P0 $30.29 = 6.0%.
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Total Year 1 Return

Total return = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield. Total return = 7% + 6% = 13%. Total return = 13% = rs. For constant growth stock:

Capital gains yield = 6% = g.

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Rearrange model to rate of return form:


D1 ^ P0 = to rs g D1 ^ rs = + g. P0

Then, ^ = $2.12/$30.29 + 0.06 rs = 0.07 + 0.06 = 13%.


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If g = 0, the dividend stream is a perpetuity.


0 r = 13% 1 s 2 3

2.00
^

2.00 = $15.38.

2.00

PMT $2.00 P0 = = r 0.13

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Supernormal Growth Stock

Supernormal growth of 30% for Year 0 to Year 1, 25% for Year 1 to Year 2, 15% for Year 2 to Year 3, and then long-run constant g = 6%. Can no longer use constant growth model. However, growth becomes constant after 3 years.
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Nonconstant growth followed by constant growth (D0 = $2):


0
rs = 13% g = 30%

1
g = 25%

2
g = 15%

3
g = 6%

4 3.9618

2.6000 2.3009

3.2500

3.7375

2.5452
2.5903 39.2246 ^ 46.6610 = P0 $3.9618 ^ = $56.5971 P3 = 0.13 0.06
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Expected Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield (t = 0)


D1 $2.60 Dividend yield = = = 5.6% P0 $46.66 At t = 0:

CG Yield = 13.0% 5.6% = 7.4%.


(More)
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Expected Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield (after t = 3)

During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant. If current growth is greater than g, current capital gains yield is greater than g. After t = 3, g = constant = 6%, so the capital gains yield = 6%. Because rs = 13%, after t = 3 dividend yield = 13% 6% = 7%.
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Is the stock price based on short-term growth?


The current stock price is $46.66. The PV of dividends beyond Year 3 is:

P3 / (1+rs)3 = $39.22 (see slide 22)


The percentage of stock price due to long-term dividends is:

$39.22 = 84.1%. $46.66


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Intrinsic Stock Value vs. Quarterly Earnings

If most of a stocks value is due to long-term cash flows, why do so many managers focus on quarterly earnings? See next slide.

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Intrinsic Stock Value vs. Quarterly Earnings

Sometimes changes in quarterly earnings are a signal of future changes in cash flows. This would affect the current stock price. Sometimes managers have bonuses tied to quarterly earnings.

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Suppose g = 0 for t = 1 to 3, and then g is a constant 6%.


0 1 2.00
g = 0%

rs = 13% g = 0%

2 2.00
g = 0%

3 2.00
g = 6%

4 2.12

1.7699 1.5663 1.3861 20.9895 25.7118

^ = 2.12 P3

0.07

= 30.2857
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Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield (t = 0)


Dividend Yield = D1/P0 Dividend Yield = $2.00/$25.72 Dividend Yield = 7.8% CGY = 13.0% 7.8% = 5.2%.

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Dividend Yield and Capital Gains Yield (after t = 3)


Now have constant growth, so: Capital gains yield = g = 6% Dividend yield = rs g Dividend yield = 13% 6% = 7%

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If g = -6%, would anyone buy the stock? If so, at what price?


Firm still has earnings and still pays dividends, so ^0 > 0: P
D0(1 + g) D1 ^ P0 = = rs g rs g $2.00(0.94) $1.88 = = = $9.89. 0.13 (-0.06) 0.19
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Annual Dividend and Capital Gains Yields


Capital gains yield = g = -6.0%. Dividend yield = 13.0% (-6.0%) = 19.0%. Both yields are constant over time, with the high dividend yield (19%) offsetting the negative capital gains yield.
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Using Stock Price Multiples to Estimate Stock Price

Analysts often use the P/E multiple (the price per share divided by the earnings per share). Example:

Estimate the average P/E ratio of comparable firms. This is the P/E multiple. Multiply this average P/E ratio by the expected earnings of the company to estimate its stock price.
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Using Entity Multiples

The entity value (V) is:


Pick a measure, such as EBITDA, Sales, Customers, Eyeballs, etc. Calculate the average entity ratio for a sample of comparable firms. For example,

the market value of equity (# shares of stock multiplied by the price per share) plus the value of debt.

V/EBITDA V/Customers

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Using Entity Multiples (Continued)

Find the entity value of the firm in question. For example,


The result is the firms total value. Subtract the firms debt to get the total value of its equity. Divide by the number of shares to calculate the price per share.
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Multiply the firms sales by the V/Sales multiple. Multiply the firms # of customers by the V/Customers ratio

Problems with Market Multiple Methods


It is often hard to find comparable firms. The average ratio for the sample of comparable firms often has a wide range.

For example, the average P/E ratio might be 20, but the range could be from 10 to 50. How do you know whether your firm should be compared to the low, average, or high performers?
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Preferred Stock

Hybrid security. Similar to bonds in that preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend which must be paid before dividends can be paid on common stock. However, unlike bonds, preferred stock dividends can be omitted without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.
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Expected return, given Vps = $50 and annual dividend = $5


$5 = $50 = ^ rps

Vps

^ = $5 = 0.10 = 10.0% rps $50


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Why are stock prices volatile?


^ P0 =

D1

rs g

rs = rRF + (RPM)bi could change.

Inflation expectations Risk aversion Company risk


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g could change.

Consider the following situation.


D1 = $2, rs = 10%, and g = 5%:

P0 = D1/(rs g) = $2/(0.10 0.05) = $40.


What happens if rs or g changes?

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Stock Prices vs. Changes in rs and g


rs 9% 10% 11% 4% $40.00 $33.33 $28.57 g 5% $50.00 $40.00 $33.33 6% $66.67 $50.00 $40.00

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Are volatile stock prices consistent with rational pricing?

Small changes in expected g and rs cause large changes in stock prices. As new information arrives, investors continually update their estimates of g and rs. If stock prices arent volatile, then this means there isnt a good flow of information.
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What is market equilibrium?

In equilibrium, the intrinisic price must equal the actual price. If the actual price is lower than the fundamental value, then the stock is a bargain. Buy orders will exceed sell orders, the actual price will be bid up. The opposite occurs if the actual price is higher than the fundamental value.
(More)
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Intrinsic Values and Market Stock Prices


Managerial Actions, the Economic Environment, and the Political Climate

True Expected
Future Cash Flows

True
Risk

Perceived Expected
Future Cash Flows

Perceived
Risk

Stocks Intrinsic Value

Stocks Market Price

Market Equilibrium: Intrinsic Value = Stock Price

In equilibrium, expected returns must equal required returns:


^ = D /P + g = r = r + (r r )b. rs 1 0 s RF M RF

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How is equilibrium established?


^ = D1 + g > r , then P is too low. If rs s 0 ^

P0

If the price is lower than the fundamental value, then the stock is a bargain. Buy orders will exceed sell orders, the price will be bid up until: D1/P0 + g = ^s = rs. r
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Whats the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)?

Securities are normally in equilibrium and are fairly priced. One cannot beat the market except through good luck or inside information. EMH does not assume all investors are rational. EMH assumes that stock market prices track intrinsic values fairly closely.
(More)
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EMH (continued)

If stock prices deviate from intrinsic values, investors will quickly take advantage of mispricing. Prices will be driven to new equilibrium level based on new information. It is possible to have irrational investors in a rational market.
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Weak-form EMH

Cant profit by looking at past trends. A recent decline is no reason to think stocks will go up (or down) in the future. Evidence supports weak-form EMH, but technical analysis is still used.

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Semistrong-form EMH

All publicly available information is reflected in stock prices, so it doesnt pay to pore over annual reports looking for undervalued stocks. Largely true.

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Strong-form EMH

All information, even inside information, is embedded in stock prices. Not trueinsiders can gain by trading on the basis of insider information, but thats illegal.

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Markets are generally efficient because:

100,000 or so trained analystsMBAs, CFAs, and PhDswork for firms like Fidelity, Morgan, and Prudential. These analysts have similar access to data and megabucks to invest. Thus, news is reflected in P0 almost instantaneously.
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Market Efficiency

For most stocks, for most of the time, it is generally safe to assume that the market is reasonably efficient. However, periodically major shifts can and do occur, causing most stocks to move strongly up or down.

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Implications of Market Efficiency for Financial Decisions

Many investors have given up trying to beat the market. This helps explain the growing popularity of index funds, which try to match overall market returns by buying a basket of stocks that make up a particular index.

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Implications of Market Efficiency for Financial Decisions

Important implications for stock issues, repurchases, and tender offers. If the market prices stocks fairly, managerial decisions based on over- and undervaluation might not make sense. Managers have better information but they cannot use for their own advantage and cannot deliberately defraud investors.
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Rational Behavior vs. Animal Spirits, Herding, and Anchoring Bias

Stock market bubbles of 2000 and 2008 suggest that something other than pure rationality in investing is alive and well. People anchor too closely on recent events when predicting future events.

When market is performing better than average, they tend to think it will continue to perform better than average.

Other investors emulate them, following like a herd of sheep.


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Conclusions

Markets are rational to a large extent, but at time they are also subject to irrational behavior. One must do careful, rational analyses using the tools and techniques covered in the book. Recognize that actual prices can differ from intrinsic values, sometimes by large amounts and for long periods. Good news! Differences between actual prices and intrinsic values provide wonderful opportunities for those able to capitalize on them. 57