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“That’s the wrong answer… ”
According to the 1994 CHAOS report the average cost overrun for software projects is 189% .
Builder estimated cost as part of scope definition .
and Schedule expectations are not realistic y Quality becomes the inevitable loser! .The Need for earlier estimates y Projects are a function in 4 variables y Scope y Resources y Schedule y Quality y If Scope. Resources.
Estimation is seen as part of Schedule Development Project Scope Management •Collect Requirements •Define Scope •Create WBS Project Time Management •Define Activities •Sequence Activities •Estimate Activity Resources •Estimate Activity Durations •Develop Schedule .
The Dilemma of Scope Definition y Outputs from Define Scope Process y Product scope description Product acceptance criteria y Project deliverables y Project exclusions y y Project y constraints Project constraints usually includes schedule and resources .
The dilemma y Defining scope without estimating the impact of restraints leads to failure y But we don’t do estimation until after the scope is defined .
you decide how long you want to wait for it.the VP says “We need a scope statement but don’t have much time to coordinate. approve it and send it to the developers next week.Mr Honcho. •We’ll paste your inputs into the scope statement. you make a list of everything you can think of that you’d like it to do. •Mr Earnest. •Mr Eager. .
The Challenge y We need a data driven estimation tool that can be employed prior to making decisions of scope and constraints ! .
date-by-which-you-can't-prove-youwon't-be-finished estimating Tom DeMarco — ." … Accepting this definition leads irrevocably toward a method called what's-the-earliest.Otherw i we’re stuck w ith se Industry standard definition of “Estimate” y [The common definition of estimate is] "the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true.
“How long will it take you to do this in six months?” .
Why do w e fail to estim ate ? .
The Cone of Uncertainty .
Estimate Targ et Schedu l e .
an expedient methodology for accomplishing a required effort (possibly from an estimate) within the constraints imposed by a target.“a prediction of how long a project will take or how much it will cost.” * ness yTarget . Example .Estimate. .“is a statement of a desirable bu si objective. Software Estimation y Plan -. Target or Plan y Estimate -.a schedule.”* y *Steve McConnell.
Definition of an “Estim at ” e .
The Solution y Expert Estimation during Scope Definition y “Expert judgment.” y PMBOK Guide. 4th Edition. can provide du rati estimate in f on ormation or recommended maximum activity durations from prior similar projects. y Expert Estimation can be applied to earlier phases of the project . guided by historical information. pp 149.
Method for Expert Estimation y Get as much definition of expected scope and requirements on paper as possible CWBS w ithh det ailibl yreate aas mucas posse y It helps to have a standard template with deliverables of your development process already populated y Distribute to Subject Matter Experts y Collect 3 point Estimates for each task y See PMBOK Guide 4. pp 150) .
Method for Expert Estimation y Collect estimates and compile as appropriate y Calculate Expected Values according to the PERT formula y Expected Value = (BestCase + 4*LikelyCase + WorstCase)/6 y Calculate Estimated Standard Deviation y EstStdDev = (WorstCase .BestCase)/6 y Present Estimates in terms of y Expected Effort y Uncertainty bound y(Expected + 1 StdDev) = 84% confidence .
Subway Sandwich Task Wait in Line Build Bread/Meat Subassembly Add Cheese Accessory Compile Veggie Options Process monetary exchange Complete Drink delivery Best 0 sec 20 sec 5 sec 10 sec 20 sec 30 sec Likely 45 sec 40 sec 10 sec 25 sec 100 sec 48 sec Worst Expected Estimated StdDev 180 sec 120 sec 20 sec 90 sec 200 sec 90 sec 60 sec 50 sec 11 sec 33 sec 103 sec 52 sec 30 sec 17 sec 3 sec 13 sec 30 sec 10 sec .Example .
2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 84% confidence Project will complete within 5 min 54 sec .6 04 0.2 1 220 264 309 354 398 0.98 0.Monte Carlo Analysis Certainty Time (sec) Certainty 1.Example .8 0.5 0.02 016 0.84 0.
Analysis conclusions y The sum of Best Case estimates (85 sec) probability of completion on time would be y ~ 1i n 400.000 y The sum of Likely Case estimates (268 sec) probability of completion on time would be y ~ 1 in 6 y Best estimate is 354 seconds with 84% confidence .Example .
SEDM IEEE Proceedings. 2006. . Measurement & Estimation.References and Recommended Reading y Steve McConnell. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Yourdon Press.E xpert So f tware Dev el opment yRo n R Estimation with Uncertainty Correction. Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press. 1982. June 2010 (See additional slides section) y Tom DeMarco. ammage et. al . Controlling Software Projects: Management.
For notes and Q&A .
Expert Software Dev el opment Estimation with Uncertainty Correction Ron Rammage. Hairong Lei. This process includes a mechanism to improve software estimation accuracy as historical data becomes available for more sophisticated methods. Michael Claus. Chengdu China. David Baer. .Creation of an effective metrics and estimation program is an important but daunting step for the maturing software development organization. we present a practical proposal for software estimation in industry based on software task size. June 2325. Conf #16902 Abstract. Furthermore. 2010Proceedings published by IEEE. This paper outlines a roadmap for implementing a process that establishes a program that will reap a large portion of the benefits early in the process with a minimum of implementation effort and cost. and uncertainty. complexity. Software Engineering and Data Mining Conference.