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WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

A probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event in the future will happen. It can only assume a value between 0 and 1. A value near 0 means the event is not likely to happen. A value near 1 means it is likely. Example P(A) = Number of favourable outcomes Total number of possible outcomes

TERMINOLOGIES

EXPERIMENT

a process of obtaining information through observation or measurement of a phenomenon whose outcome is subject to chance.

EXAMPLE: Tossing a fair coin. Drawing a card from the pack of 52 cards. Contd

OUTCOME

EXAMPLE: On tossing a coin, the outcome is either a head or a tail.

Contd

EVENT

EXAMPLE: throwing a die and getting a six is an event.

Contd

SAMPLE SPACE

EXAMPLE:

Outcomes of the roll of a die: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Outcomes of 2 coin flips: {HH, HT, TH, TT}

TYPES OF EVENTS

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS Events are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of any one event means that none of the others can occur at the same time. Events which cannot occur together or simultaneously. EXAMPLE: if a single coin is tossed, head can be up or tail can be up, both cannot be up at the same time. Contd

INDEPENDENT EVENTS Events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of another. EXAMPLE: the outcomes of successive tosses of a coin are independent of its preceding toss.

Contd

DEPENDENT EVENTS Events are dependent if the occurrence of one event does affect the occurrence of another. EXAMPLE drawing of two cards from a pack of 52 cards without replacement. Contd

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS If A is an event of a sample space, then its complement contains all the elements of the sample space that are not part of A. If S denotes the sample space then ~A = S A

EXAMPLE on throwing a die, a face with number 1 comes up. Lets denote it as E. then, ~E = S E i.e., =61=5

RULES OF PROBABILITY

RULES OF PROBABILITY

ADDITION RULE

MULTIPLICATION RULE

DEPENDENT EVENTS

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Mutually exclusive events If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of one or the other events occurring equals the sum of their probabilities. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Partially overlapping events If A and B are two events that are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

EXAMPLE 1

Monthly Income (Rs.) A. Under Rs. 20,000 B. 20,000 to 30,000 C. 30,000 and above No. of Shops 102 61 37

(a) What is the probability that a particular shop has monthly income under Rs.20,000? (b) What is the probability that a shop selected at random has either an income between Rs.20,000 and Rs.30,000 or an income of Rs.30,000 and above?

Contd

(a). P(A) = = =

EXAMPLE 2

What is the probability that a card chosen at random from a standard deck of cards will be either a king or a heart?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) = 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52 = 16/52, or .3077

Independent events If two events are independent, then the probability of happening of one and the other event equals the product of their probabilities. P(A and B) = P(A).P(B)

Dependent events The probability of two dependent events A and B equals the probability of A multiplied by the probability of B given that A has occurred. P(A and B) = P(A).P(B/A)

EXAMPLE 1

An university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 persons, 20 of them women and 30 men, 10 of them knowing Hindi and 40 not, 15 of them being teachers and the remaining 35 not. What is the probability of the University selecting a Hindi knowing woman teacher?

Probability of selecting a woman = 20/50 Probability of selecting a teacher = 15/50 Probability of selecting a Hindi-knowing = 10/50 Since the events are independent, the probability of the University selecting a Hindi- knowing woman teacher = 20/50.15/50. 10/50 = 3/125 = 0.024

EXAMPLE 2

A bag contains 5white and 3black balls. Two balls are drawn at random one after the other without replacement. Find the probability that both balls drawn are black. Probability of drawing a black ball in the first attempt is P(A) = 3/8 Probability of drawing the second black ball given that the first ball drawn is black is P(B/A) = 2/7 Therefore, the probability that both balls drawn are black is P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) = 3/8. 2/7 = 3/28

A bag contains 30 balls numbered from 1 to 30. One ball is drawn at random. Find the probability that the number of the balls drawn will be a multiple of i). 5 or 7 ii). 3 or 7

i). Probability of the number being a multiple of 5 is P(5,10,15,20,25,30) = 6/30 Probability of the number being a multiple of 7 is P(7,14,21,28) = 4/30 Since the events are mutually exclusive, the probability of the number being a multiple of 5 or 7 will be 6/30 + 4/30 = 10/30 = 1/3 contd

ii). Probability of the number being a multiple of 3 is P(3,6,9,12,15,18,21,24,27,30) = 10/30 Probability of the number being a multiple of 7 is P(7,14,21,28) = 4/30 Since 21 is a common multiple of both, hence the probability of getting a number which is multiple of 3 or 7 = 10/30 +4/30 1/30 = 13/30. {P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)}

A box contains 3red and 7white balls. One ball is drawn at random and in its place a ball of the other colour is put in the box . Now one ball is drawn at random from the box. Find the probability that it is red. When the first ball drawn is red P(R) = 3/10 Now a white ball is put in the box in place of red ball, so the box contains 2red and 8white balls. So the probability of drawing a red ball again is P(R) = 2/10

When the first ball drawn is white P(W) = 7/10 Now a red ball is put in the box in place of white ball, so the box contains 4red and 6white balls. So the probability of drawing a red ball again is P(R) = 4/10

Hence the probability of drawing a red ball is (3/10.2/10) + (7/10.4/10) = 6/100 + 28/100 = 34/100 = 0.34

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