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CHAPTER 6: The Human Population and Urbanization

6-1 How Many People Can the Earth Support?

Concept 6-1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earths carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the lifesupport system that keeps us and many other species alive.

Human Population Explosion

Exponential growth (J-curve) in past 200 years Three major reasons
Ability to expand into diverse habitats Emergence of agriculture Sanitation systems and control of infectious diseases decreased death rates

How Long Can the Human Population Grow

Rate slowing, but still exponential Uneven global growth No population can grow indefinitely 2050: 9.5 billion people at current growth rates Most growth in developing countries, least likely to cope

13 12 11 10 9 ? 8 7 6 5 4 Industrial revolution Black Deaththe Plague 3 2 1 0 2-5 million 8000 years Hunting and gathering 6000 4000 2000 2000 2100 B.C. A.D. Agricultural revolution Industrial revolution Fig. 1-1, p. 16 Fig. 1-10, p. 1

6-2 What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population?

Concept 6-2A Population size increases through births and immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration. Concept 6-2B The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines the population size.

Population Change
Population change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) Demographers look at birth rates and death rates 2009:
China, 1.3 billion people India, 1.1 billion people USA, 306 million people

Number of Children
Fertility rates affect population size and growth rate Total fertility rate (TFR) 1950-2009: Global TFR fell to:
1.6 from 2.5 in developed countries 2.8 from 6.5 in developing countries

Factors Affecting Birth Rates (1)

Importance of children as part of labor force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of retirement systems Urbanization Educational and employment opportunities for women

Factors Affecting Birth Rates (2)

Average marriage age Availability of legal abortion and reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms

Factors Affecting Death Rates

Population growth is also response to decline in crude death rate Life expectancy and infant mortality rate important indicators of overall health Average life expectancy increased Infant mortality barometer of a societys quality of life

Supplement 3, Fig. 8, p. S10

Migration driven by economic desires Other reasons
Religious persecution Political oppression Ethnic conflicts Wars Environmental degradation

6-3 How Does a Populations Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline? Concept 6-3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast populations grow or decline.

Age Structure
Distribution of population
Prereproductive Reproductive Postreproductive

Country with many young people grows rapidly Country with many older people will decline Developing countries: >30% under 15 years old

Fig. 6-6, p. 102

Fig. 6-6, p. 102

Fig. 6-7, p. 102

6-4 How Can We Slow Human Population Growth?

Concept 6-4 We can slow population growth by reducing poverty, encouraging family planning, and elevating the status of women.

Stages of Demographic Transition

Preindustrial Transitional demographic trap Industrial Postindustrial

Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Low Increasing

Total population Birth rate

Death rate

Very high






Growth rate over time

Fig. 6-10, p. 105

Relative population size

(to compensate for high infant mortality) and 80 a high death 70 rate

Stage 2 Transitional Population grows rapidly because birth Population grows very rates are high and death rates drop slowly because of improved food production because of a and health high birth rate

Stage 1 Preindustrial

Stage 3 Industrial
Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved food production, health, and education

Stage 4 Postindustrial Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates

Family Planning (1)

Birth spacing, birth control, health care Increased availability of contraception 55% drop in TFR of developing countries Developing countries
Almost half pregnancies unplanned Often lack access to family planning

Family Planning (2)

Invest in family planning Reduce poverty Elevate the social and economic status of women

Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth (1)

Women tend to have fewer children if they:
Are educated Control their own fertility Have a paying job outside the home Do not have their rights suppressed

Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth (2)

Women do almost all domestic housework and childcare Women do 60-80% of agriculture, wood gathering, water hauling Globally, women do 2/3 of all work for 10% of income

Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth (3)

Illiterate woman 64% of worlds population, 70% of the poor When daughters considered less valuable, not sent to school Poor conditions for women leads to environmental degradation

6-5 What Are the Major Urban Resource Environmental Problems?

Concept 6-5 Most cities are unsustainable because of high levels of resource use, waste, pollution, and poverty.

Urban Living
Half the world lives in urban areas 50% of world population lives in cities Urban areas continue to grow
Natural increase Immigration

Major Trends in Urban Growth

Proportion of urban global population growing Number and sizes of urban areas mushrooming Rapid increase in urban populations in developing countries Urban growth slower in developed nations Poverty increasing

Karachi 10.4 million Dhaka 16.2 million 13.2 million Beijing 22.8 million 10.8 million 11.7 million Los Angeles 13.3 million 19.0 million Mexico City 18.3 million 20.4 million New York 16.8 million 17.9 million Sao Paulo 18.3 million 21.2 million Cairo 10.5 million 11.5 million Lagos 12.2 million 24.4 million Tokyo 26.5 million 27.2 million Osaka 11.0 million 11.0 million Manila 10.1 million 11.5 million

Mumbai (Bombay) 16.5 million 22.6 million Delhi 13.0 million 20.9 million

Calcutta 13.3 million 16.7 million Jakarta 11.4 million 17.3 million

Key 2004 (estimated) 2015 (projected)

Buenos Aires 12.1 million 13.2 million

Shanghai 12.8 million 13.6 million

Fig. 6-11, p. 108

Advantages of Urbanization (1)

Economic development Innovation Education and jobs Technological advances Longer life spans

Advantages of Urbanization (2)

Better social and medical services Recycling more feasible Biodiversity increased Increased energy efficiency

Disadvantages of Urbanization (1)

Unsustainable systems Lack of vegetation Water problems Pollution and health problems

Disadvantages of Urbanization (2)

Noise pollution Climate and artificial light Urban heat islands Light pollution

6-6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban Environmental Impacts? Concept 6-6 In some countries, most people live in dispersed urban areas and depend mostly on motor vehicles for their transportation.

Cities Can Grow Outward or Upward

Compact cities
Transportation by walking, biking, or mass transit Hong Kong, Tokyo

Dispersed cities
Transportation by automobile Most American cities

Reduce Automobile Use

User-pays system Full-cost pricing Tax revenues to finance mass transit, bike paths, sidewalks High gasoline tax unlikely Need to discourage automobile use

Alternatives to Cars
Bicycles Mass transit systems in urban areas Bus systems Rapid rail

Are quiet and non-polluting

Provide little protection in an accident

Take few resources to make Burn no fossil fuels

Provide no protection from bad weather

Are impractical for long trips

Require little parking space

Secure bike parking not yet widespread

Fig. 6-18, p. 115

Mass Transit Rail
Uses less energy and produces less air pollution than cars do Reduced need for more roads and parking areas Causes fewer injuries and deaths than cars do Reduces car congestion in cities

Is expensive to build and maintain

Is cost-effective only in densely populated areas Commits riders to transportation schedules

Can cause noise and vibration for nearby residents

Fig. 6-19, p. 116

Can greatly reduce car use and air pollution

Can lose money because they require affordable fares Can get caught in traffic and add to noise and pollution Commit riders to transportation schedules

Can be rerouted as needed Cost less to develop and maintain than heavy-rail system

Fig. 6-20, p. 116

Rapid Rail
Is much more energy efficient per rider than cars and planes are Produces less pollution than do cars and planes Can reduce need for more air travel, cars, roads, and parking areas

Is costly to run and maintain Causes noise and vibration for nearby residents Has some risk of collision at car crossings

Fig. 6-21, p. 116

6-7 How Can Cities Become More Sustainable and Livable?

Concept 6-7 An ecocity allows people to choose walking, biking, or mass transit for most transportation needs; recycle or reuse most of their wastes; grow much of their food; and protect biodiversity by preserving surrounding land.

Environmentally Sustainable Cities

Smart growth Ecocities
Use renewable energy as much as possible Build and design people-oriented cities Use energy and matter efficiently Prevent pollution and reduce waste Recycle, reuse, and compost Protect and encourage biodiversity Promote urban gardens and farmers markets Zone for environmentally stable population levels

Smart Growth Tools
Limits and Regulations Limit building permits Urban growth boundaries Greenbelts around cities Public review of new development Zoning Encourage mixed use of housing and small businesses Concentrate development along mass transportation routes Promote high-density cluster housing developments Planning Ecological land-use planning Environmental impact analysis Integrated regional planning State and national planning Protection Preserve existing open space Buy new open space Buy development rights that prohibit certain types of development on land parcels Taxes Tax land, not buildings Tax land on value of actual use (such as forest and agriculture) instead of on highest value as developed land

Tax Breaks For owners agreeing not to allow certain types of development (conservation easements) For cleaning up and developing abandoned urban sites (brownfields) Revitalization and New Growth Revitalize existing towns and cities Build well-planned new towns and villages within cities

Fig. 6-22, p. 117

Three Big Ideas from This Chapter - #1

The human population is increasing rapidly and may soon bump up against environmental limits.

Three Big Ideas from This Chapter - #2

We can slow human population growth by reducing poverty, encouraging family planning, and elevating the status of women.

Three Big Ideas from This Chapter - #3

Most urban areas, home to half of the worlds people, are unsustainable, but they can be made more sustainable and livable within your lifetime.