Ticker: NROM Current PPS of $.73 $14.5M Market Cap Avg Volume (3 month): 31,053 Trades Over the Counter Headquartered in Indiana, USA
Began in 1972 as a small Indiana pizza operator In the 1980s and 90s phased out of the operating store business In the 1990s and early 2000s, the company morphed into a franchising and supply chain pizza business In 2008, the company was sued by many of their franchisees who accused Noble Romans of fraud as a result of the dramatic failure of most the of the franchises
Traditional Franchises 12% of Revenue expected for 2012
Non-Traditional Locations 62% of Revenue
Take-and-Bake 18% of Revenue Super Market / Distributors Stand alone franchises
In June 2008 the company was sued by former franchise owners for Fraud In December of 2010, a court issued a summary judgment in favor of Noble Romans and all appeals were rejected Noble Romans countered sued claiming the franchise owners had breached their contracts and owe substantial damages. This claim has been granted summary judgment but the final amounts are pending. The Court ordered mediation for September 14, 2012 $3.6M for damages and $1.4M for legal expenses
Conservative DCF: that does not factor in legal payments, non traditional unit growth, or stand alone unit success: $1.13 PPS (46% upside) EPV of Current FCF (with no taxes): $1.07 PPS (46% upside)
Worst: $.72 (-6%)
Base: $1.13 (46%)
0 grocery per year added Flat non-traditional stores Precipitous 35% decline in franchise stores No legal payout 100 grocery added per year Non-traditional stores growing at inflation (3%) Franchise stores declining at 20% per year $1M out of $5M in legal payout 400 grocery store per year Non-traditional stores growing at inflation (3%) Franchise stores staying flat $4M out of $5M in legal payout
Best: $1.67 (116%)
Indiana Franchise Act
Legal Payment decision less than expected
Company has vigorously defended itself on this accusation. Furthermore, $5M in expected legal gains is not counted into the model and could more than offset any liability As stated above, not in model
Cannot Sign new Grocery Stores
Wastes money on stand alone Take-and-Bake concept
Stated that they will use all FCF to pay down debt
Has experienced great growth in this area, providing grocery stores a high margin product with a favored brand
Ways to win: Continued expansion in Take-and-Bake Legal payment award Any growth in non-traditional franchise Capital Structure Improvements Stand alone concept success
Ways to lose: Indiana Franchise Act Management missteps Grocery store estimates too aggressive
Buying a good business at a great price Major catalysts in the expected $5M in legal payment Huge area of expansion in take-and-bake market Conservative Estimated upside: 46% with a target price of $1.13
