Newt's Second Comeback

How Newt Gingrich came back (again) to win the South Carolina presidential primary in 2012.

The PR Issue
How does a presidential candidate who has been out of politics for more than a decade and also has a lot of personal/professional baggage return to win a crucial primary and make himself into a viable GOP contender in 2012?

Overview
Career Timeline
SWOT: Newt as a Candidate Three campaign issues in South Carolina and the tactics used to deal with them Results SWOT: Campaign Analysis Lessons

Newts Career

1978 Elected to House of Representatives.

1994 Contract With America.

1995 Elected Speaker of the House.

1998 Decides not to run for re-election after ethics scandal.

Primary Season

May 2011 Announces his bid for presidency.

Jun. 2011 Senior campaign staff resigns en masse.

Dec. 2011 Surges in polls to become GOP frontrunner.

Jan. 2012 Finishes 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.

SWOT: Newt as a Candidate

STRENGTHS Good public speaker. History of bipartisan accomplishments. OPPORTUNITIES Frontrunner position up for grabs. Romney has enthusiasm problem with conservatives. THREATS
1990s ethics scandal and other Congressional baggage.

WEAKNESSES:

History of cheating and divorces and erratic behavior. Lack of business experience.

Media attention on personal scandals. Many personal critics.

Issue 1: Newt Starts From Behind in South Carolina

NYT: 10 days before the primary, Mitt Romney has a 55% chance of winning and a projected 8-point lead over Newt Gingrich in the polls.

Newts Response: Momentum

Endorsements: Sarah Palin, Rick Perry and S.C. state legislative leaders. Surging poll numbers creates a momentum narrative for the news media. Uses Southern messaging strategy to appeal to S.C. Republicans, especially Tea Party, rural and evangelical voters.

Issue 2: The Wives

Cheating, scandal and an allegation of a request for an open marriage.

Newts Response: South Carolina Debate

During the South Carolina primary, moderator John King opened up the debate with Ginther's comment that Gingrich wanted an "open marriage. Gingrich managed to turn the liability into an asset and lashed out at what he described as "the destructive, vicious, negative nature" of the media.

The Strength of Newts Response

Of the S.C. voters that had watched almost all of the 16 debates, 48% supported Gingrich. Of the voters who had not seen any of the debates, only 9% supported Gingrich.

Issue 3: Romneys Attacks in the Media

Anti-Gingrich Advertisements
Of 46% of negative ads, 22% were targeted at Gingrich.
Romneys antiGingrich ads included testimonies from former Congressmen and Senators.

Newts Response: AntiRomney Advertisements

Funded by super PAC money
Billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson gave Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future $5 million boost before S.C. primary to buy TV ads

Anti-Romney ads
Abortion Capitalist ventures Inconsistent Massachusetts Moderate

When Mitt Romney Came to Town, a 28-minute short film attacking Romney.

Spending

Gingrich Attacks Romney at the S.C. Primary

Gingrichs performance: aggressive, impressive.
Tax returns
Gingrich released his tax returns before the primary. Romneys response: uncomfortable, never answered the questions.

Criticism of Bain Capital

Accused Romney of capitalist exploitation. Reiterated short film points. Romneys response: awkward.

The Importance of South Carolina

FACT: No Republican has gone on to win the partys presidential nomination without winning South Carolina since before 1980.

Results of the South Carolina Primary

The 2012 Republican Primary generated a record voter turnout in South Carolina. Gingrich won 40% of the vote.

Exit polls showed Gingrich led among voters who said their top priority was picking a candidate who could beat Obama. Voters were extremely impressed with Gingrichs performance during the S.C. debate.

SWOT: Campaign Analysis

STRENGTHS Strong debate performances. Good campaign messaging. Rose 12 points in Florida polls to have a 5-point lead. OPPORTUNITIES Super PAC money. Media narrative easy to manipulate. Role of S.C. primary in securing the party's presidential nomination.
THREATS
Attacks by Republican establishment. Romney can outspend Gingrich and Santorum can consolidate conservatives. Losing SC Primary could force him out of the running for GOP

Endorsements
WEAKNESSES Disorganized campaign.

Low on money.
Fundraising issues. Not viewed as a credible candidate.

Takeaways and Recommendations

TAKEAWAYS: Can still win a primary even if the campaign is weak on money and organization. Take the high ground: when the media questions personal life emphasize that those are not the issues at hand. Exploit the weaknesses of rivals. RECOMMENDATIONS: As soon as Gingrich saw he was going to win South Carolina, he should have focused more on winning the Florida primary. More focus on rebranding himself as a national candidate.

Discussion Questions
Who is planning on voting for Gingrich in the May primary in North Carolina? Why or why not?
What could Gingrich do to win your vote? Why do you think Gingrichs bid has failed since his South Carolina victory? What differences do you see in how political campaigns use PR strategies versus corporations, NGOs, etc.?

Works Cited
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/poll-romney-leads-gingrichgains-in-sc-111336.html http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/poll-romney-leads-gingrichgains-in-sc-111336.html http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/for-gingrich-an-endorsement-ofsorts-from-sarah-palin/?scp=3&sq=Sarah%20Palin&st=cse

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/for-gingrich-an-endorsement-ofsorts-from-sarah-palin/?scp=3&sq=Sarah%20Palin&st=cse
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/for-gingrich-an-endorsement-ofsorts-from-sarah-palin/?scp=3&sq=Sarah%20Palin&st=cse http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57363403-503544/how-newt-gingrichwon-the-south-carolina-primary/?tag=contentMain;contentBody http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71645.html