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Uncommon Opportunities: Roadmap for Employment, Food & Global Security
November 21, 2004
International Center for Peace & Development, USA The Mother’s Service Society, Pondicherry
20M 1999-00 27M Twice as high for lower consumption classes On daily basis 35M Youth Unemployment 13%
Natural Employment Generation
New entrants to labour force Urban migration Agriculture employment is flat Less growth in unemployment Natural job generation
7-8M/yr 1M/yr -1M/yr 7-8M/yr
The absence of social unrest and the fact that urban migration continues and
urban unemployment does not rise enormously indicate the surpluses are being absorbed.
This is unorganized, unconscious process akin to education without schools
Make the unconscious process CONSCIOUS
How society stimulates employment
New products New services Growth in demand Technological innovation Higher quality &/or productivity Organizational innovation Higher skills Better access to information Increased speed Legislation & law enforcement Administrative responsiveness Environment/health consciousness Change of attitudes
tutorial institutes.Three Approaches to Employment Generation Expand existing activities Nursery schools. English teaching Borrow from other countries Credit rating & collection agencies Trade shows & network marketing Health clinics STD & chit funds Marriage halls Mini-power plants Rural information centres Contract farming agencies 5 Promote culturally compatible activities .
Available Modes of Action Increase access to credit Provide incentives for new initiatives Strengthen or enforce legislation Impart training Use insurance as a stimulus Publicize opportunities in the media 6 .
Where are the untapped potentials Raise farm productivity Renewable energy Agro-industrial linkages Service sector Employable skills Application of IT 7 .
Prosperity 2000 Strategy Agriculture as engine for industrialization & employment growth Shift focus from meeting minimum production needs to maximumizing profit per unit land & water Projecting market growth based on nutritional requirements Raise productivity of soil & water Shift to commercial crops which absorb more labour Develop industry linkages with industries Create 4.5 million direct & 5.5 million indirect employment opportunities per annum 8 .
India’s Crop Productivity Gap (kg/ha) Crop Maize Paddy Soy beans Seed Cotton Tomato USA 8900 7500 2250 2060 6250 China 4900 6000 1740 3500 2400 India 2100 3000 1050 750 1430 9 .
g. cotton) 10 .Low farm productivity results in High unit cost of production High priced food Low farm incomes & purchasing power Low labour absorption High water consumption/unit of produce Limited export potential & threat from imports (e.
Technology Strategies Raise crop yields Raise water productivity Improve post-harvest storage & transport Expand & upgrade processing industries Raising productivity can create millions of on-farm and off-farm employment opportunities. 11 .
Horticulture Labour content 6 times cereals Generates 10-30 times earning / unit area Filling India’s nutritional gap requires 40% growth Add 4M ha horticulture to raise production 40% Generate 8 million jobs 12 .
000 crores in crop losses Global share of processed food exports is rising India processes only 2% fruits & vegetables vs. Philippines & Malaysia 78-80%) India projected to process 10% fruit & veg by 2010 Industry directly employs 1. Thailand 30%.Food Processing Improve storage & processing to reduce Rs 70.6M 13 . Brazil 70%.
Power Demand to Triple by 2020 1997 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Industry Transport Agriculture Commercial Residential 14 BAU 2020 BCS 2020 Total .
Oil Demand to Triple by 2020 1997 Total Domestic Commercial Agriculture Transport Industry Power 0 50 100 150 200 250 BAU 2020 BCS 2020 16 Projected demand for oil in million tonnes .
Cotton & Textile Industry India is 3rd largest producer of cotton Domestic demand projected to grow 70% by 2010 Export demand projected to triple by 2010 Double productivity of cotton Double area under irrigated cotton 12 million additional jobs in textile industry 21 .
Herbs. including half of India’s 70M tribals Objective to raise forest cover 50% in 10 ys Introduce corporate contract farming with bonded performance guarantees & assured employment for local population 22 . Medicinal Plants 100 M rely on forests for main source of livelihood.Forestry.
3M Shrimp farming -.4 direct & 4 indirect jobs per ha 1999 – 161.3M Additional 120.Fisheries World seafood market doubled in the 1990s India’s marine & inland fisheries employ 6M 1/3rd of India’s marine fishery potential untapped China full-time employment in rural aquaculture 1989 – 1.5M 1997 – 3.000 ha generates employment for 1.000 ha would create 1M jobs 23 .
Dairy Rs 100.000 crores by 2005 India is largest and lowest cost producer 70M dairy farmers Cooperatives provide employment for 11M families Potential for 42M jobs 24 .
000 25 .000 6.Employment Potential -.000.000 12.summary Crop productivity growth Horticulure Biomass power & bio-fuels Agro-forestry Cotton & Textiles Dairy.000.000 8.000.000 60.000.000 21.000.000 8.000. fisheries Total 5.000. animal husbandry.
Organization for Rural Prosperity Self Help Groups Contract Farming Rural Information Centers Farm Schools 27 .
Self Help Groups 1 million created in 3 years 15 million members benefit 90%+ repayment of loans Mostly for non-farm activities Commodity-wise SHGs for agriculture Appachi Foundation & ICICI – 60 SHGs for cotton growers in Tamil Nadu 28 .
sugar mills Organize SHGs of farmers Role of the Contractor Provide quality inputs Arrange credit with banks Arrange crop insurance Deliver extension services Tie-up market with industry Operate farm schools 29 .Contract Farming Successful Indian model -.
Farm Schools cum Extension Objective: double farm yields in 3 years Lead farmers act as paid field training & extension staff for the contractor Lead farmers run Farm Schools on village lands Demonstrate methods on farmers’ lands Train farmers & disseminates information Operate or link to Village Information Centre Link to soil test labs Link to agro-service centres 30 .
expert system for advice Multi-media farm training Input supply information Market information Educational information Health information E-government services Other vocational training 31 .Rural IT Knowledge Centres Mission 2007 – 500.000 village centres Can create 5 jobs per centre Can charge for services Soil analysis -.
Ag Enterprises -. Tax credits for contractors who raise farm productivity Strengthen crop insurance program Penalties for false documentation by officials Penalties for adulteration of ag inputs Railways to provide refrigerated storage & transport 32 .Policy Issues On-farm training system Enforce sanctity of contracts Expand access to credit through SHGs with group guarantees & postdated checks. Extend powers of Revenue Recovery Act to ensure repayment by SHGs. including present defaulters.
Service Sector USA: provides 80% of jobs India: Grew by 60M jobs in 18 yrs Rose from 25% to 32% of total employment High potential fields Tourism Transport. communication Education Health care Financial services Internet-based activities 33 . storage.
Internet-based Self-Employment Desktop publishing Web design Web research E-books Translation Technical writing Engineering & technical services Opportunities from Rs 5000 to 1 lakh per month 34 .
India’s problem is not lack of employment opportunities but lack of employable skills. 35 .Vocational Skills 50% of firms in developing and industrialized countries report severe shortage of skilled workers. Skills create employment and self-employment opportunities.
Vocational Skills Gap Only 5% of India’s workforce (20-24 years) have vocational training compared with 28% in Mexico and 96% in Korea. Upgrading skills essential to tap global markets 36 . By 2010 major labour shortages will emerge in the industrialized nations forcing movement of both manufacturing & service jobs to wherever the skills are best.
3 lakhs State enterprise programmes – 1.620 private Courses offered 43 engineering & 24 non-engineering trades Capacity – 6.7 lakh Including agriculture & other – 20 lakh 37 .Vocational Training in India 4200 ITIs 1.654 government run 2.
Vocational Training Deficit Students completing 8th-9th standard 300 lakhs Students entering 10th-11th New entrants to workforce (per year) Vocational training in engineering. agriculture & other fields 150 lakhs 70 lakhs 20 lakhs New entrants to workforce w/o training Existing unemployed youth (15-29) of which 80% are educated up to 10th 50 lakhs 150 lakhs Existing workers to be trained to raise non-ag skilled portion to 25% 350 lakhs 38 .
Three Models Farm Schools in every revenue village Vocational Schools Computerized & Televised Vocational Training 39 .
Vocational Schools Promote vocational institutes at block and district level 5000 govt 50.g.000 private Conduct exams for every skill as for drivers licenses Certify approved training centres. BPO Provide scholarships & incentives for trainees 40 . e.
Computer-based learning is twice as fast @ half the cost Multimedia Interactive Immediate Feedback Self-paced learning Eliminates need for trained teachers Responds rapidly to changing skill needs Uniform testing 41 .
000 training centres at engineering and arts colleges. NGOs. etc. high schools. Partnership with industry to develop multimedia training software Provide training to a minumum of 4 million students per annum Government certification of courses Generate self-employment opportunities for 50.000 entrepreneurs 42 .000 in private sector 50.Computerized Vocational Training Establish 1 lakh CVT Institutes like internet cafes 50. ITIs. polytechs.
Multimedia vocational courses RWH Child care Nutritionist Selling skills Telemarketing Catering Farm mgmt Reporter Travel agent Real estate Insurance agent Video editing Pharma rep Dry cleaning Internet research Law clerk Quality manager Furniture design Textile design Electrical repair Graphic design Bookkeeper Organic farming Interior design 43 .
CVT Job Shops Privately owned. self-employment Each centre with 1 to 10 computers Stocked with a library of training software Training material on CD-Rom format Fees based on an hourly rate 44 .
000 per month 45 . electricity may range from Rs 15.CVT Job Shop: Assumptions Three computers per Job Shop 20 training programmes per Job Shop Each computer utilized 300 hours per mo Operating expenses for rent. two paid employees.000 to 20. phone.
would cost the student only Rs 2500.CVT Job Shop: Economics Capital investment Rs 1. Cost of amortising of computers and software over two years = Rs 14 per hour Average cost of training = Rs 35 per hour Average retail price of training = Rs 50 per hour Net profit = Rs 15 per hour or Rs 1.5 lakh. equivalent to about 250 hours of classroom training.5 lakhs / yr 50 hours of computerized vocational training. Cost of operations per computer hour = Rs 20 / hour. 46 .
000 sets generates Rs 50 lakhs profit Offer 50% government subsidy for development of approved courses 47 .Training Software: Economics Cost Rs 50 lakhs per course Retail price Rs 1000 per set Sale of 10.
Finance bulk purchase of approved training software with 50% subsidy to minimize the cost of training. Provide scholarships to low income youth to cover training fees. 4. Delivery CVT through all state-owned engineering colleges. other institutions. Provide financial assistance/ incentives under Central Government selfemployment schemes to promote private training institutes. Recognized institutional authorities to certify course contents. 6. Train entrepreneurs to set up/manage private institutes. 5. high schools. 3. 48 . liberal arts colleges. 8.CVT Action Plan 1. Polytechnics. Negotiate with computer software companies to develop a wide range of vocational training courses. ITIs. 7. Encourage financial institutions to provide loans to entrepreneurs. 2.
graphic and animation design services Computer repair and maintenance services International Internet telephony Computer hardware parts manufacturing and assembly Customer and technical support call centres Back office processing Medical transcription Digital photography.IT Incubator Business Parks Computerised vocation training Computerised tuitions institutes Computerised language training Software training Video-conferencing services High speed data transfer services Web. scanning and image processing Internet research services Accounting services Computerized testing laboratories 49 .
Who creates enterprises? Skilled experienced workers leaving existing jobs create enterprises Machinists taxi drivers hotel servers bus cleaners Printers tailors Do entrepreneurial training programmes work? 50 .
Promoting Entrepreneurship Extend bank credit & seed capital to employees with 5 years experience Require training & certification for new enterprises to reduce failure rate Existing entrepreneur to sign as guarantor Insurance companies can ensure loans based on qualifications 51 .
etc. Home delivery. masseuse Skills for national development Compile a complete list of skills needed for India’s development to next higher level Study which job categories grew rapidly in US during a comparable period? 52 Job creation in other countries Efficacy of Entrepreneurial Development Programmes . computers. VCDs.Issues for Study Natural job creation How many jobs are being created? In which sectors & fields? By what process? How can the natural process be magnified and accelerated? How are rural migrants absorbed in the cities? Identify high growth occupational categories at all levels Measure growth in pay/income levels by category Identify emerging occupations in all sectors. Occupational demand Emerging Activities Farm managers & Soil technicians Servicing for cell phones. ACs. floor cleaner.
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