BUDGET PREPARATION FOR

FUEL SUBSIDY

NON-TAX Revenue Directorate – Directorate General of Budget

Fuel Subsidy Policy
 Ensure the availability of fuel for domestic use
 Reduce the subsidy amount to lessen the burden
for state finance by:
Adjusting the domestic retail price for fuel per 24 May
2008 close to administered price based on Minister of
Energy and Mineral Resources Num.16/2008
Reduce the type of subsidized Fuel from 5 type in 2005
into 3 type only i.e.: diesel oil, kerosene and gasoline
while Minyak Diesel and Minyak Bakar is adjusted with
market price

Fuel Subsidy Policy.. continued
 Limitation of subsidized user:
 Households
 Small-size Industries
 Traditional Fisheries
 Public Transportations
 Public Services

 Continuing Energy conversion, from Gasoline to LPG
 Distribution of subsidized fuel through closed system and
focus
 Energy Sources Diversification i.e: gas, coal, geothermal,
water and fuel from plants
 Distribution Cost Efficiency through reduction of alpha
number

Determine the Subsidy Cost
1.
2.

Cost and Fee
Public Service Obligation

FUEL SUBSIDY MODEL WITH COST AND FEE
BASIS
1.

Net Revenue from Petroleum

2.

Is the positive difference from net fuel sales less fuel cost
(Petrol Sales – Petrol Production Cost) > 0

Fuel Subsidy

Is the negative difference from net fuel sales les fuel cost
(Petrol Sales – Petrol Production Cost) < 0

FUEL SUBSIDY MODEL WITH COST
AND FEE …….continued
Main Component of Fuel Cost and Sales
I. Cost of Fuel Supply and Product
1. Crude oil Pro-rate PERTAMINA and Contractor
2. Crude oil inkind PERTAMINA and Contractor
3. Purchase of Crude oil and gas
4. Purchase of Product
5. Variation of Crude oil and product stock
6. (Reducing Factors) - Non Fuel
II. Operating Cost
1. Refinery
2. Distribution
3. Marine Transportation
4. Interest
5. General:Head Office
6. Depreciation
III. Sales and Self usage of Fuel
 IV. Fuel Subsidy and or Fuel Net Income

BIAYA BBM
HASIL PENJUALAN
(VOL X HARGA)

BIAYA PENYEDIAAN MINYAK MENTAH DAN PRODUK

BIAYA OPERASI

BIAYA
PENGOLAHAN

MINYAK MENTAH
PRORATA
MINYAK MENTAH
INKIND

PREMIUM

M. TANAH

BIAYA
DISTRIBUSI

M. DIESEL

M. SOLAR

BIAYA
ANGKUTAN LAUT

KONTRAKTOR
PERTAMINA

KONTRAKTOR
PERTAMINA

PEMB. M. MENTAH
•IMPOR
•DALAM NEGERI

BIAYA
BUNGA
M. BAKAR

BIAYA
KANTOR PUSAT

PEMB. PRODUK
• IMPOR
• DALAM NEGERI

BIAYA
PENYUSUTAN

(dikurangi)
(dikurangi/ditambah)

STOCK VARIANCE
MARGIN
PEMEGANG
POMPA

PPN

Subsidy Calculation

PBBKB

(dikurangi)

Cost and Fee Scheme
NILAI PRODUK SURPLUS

LBM /
(SUBSIDI) BBM

Determine the Subsidy Cost, based on
Public Service Obligation Scheme
Based on the conclusion made in Budget Comitte’s High
Level Meeting with Minister of Finance and Bank Indonesia
concerning State Budget Proposal and Financial Note for
2006, it is agreed that Start from Fiscal Year 2006, subsidy
cost determined by new scheme, to replace the previous
cost + fee scheme (based on agreement between
government and parliament, Oct 2005)
The new formula, introduced since FY 2006
[(Fuel Retail Price - Tax) – Fuel Benchmark Price] x
Projection Consumption Volume

Determine the Subsidy Cost, based on Public
Service Obligation Scheme
Note :
• Fuel Retail Price is Domestic Retail Price per litre
• Tax includes VAT Motor-Vehicle Tax
• Benchmark Price is Price calculated based on MOPS plus Distribution Cost
and Margin
• Benchmark = MOPS + alpha
• Alpha = distribution cost + margin
• MOPS = Mid Oil Platt’s Singapore, Singapore oil fuel market price

Parameters in Calculating Fuel
Subsidy Within PSO Scheme
1. ICP = Estimation of Indonesian Crude Oil Price
2. Projection of Exchange Rate
3. Projection the type and the volume certain fuel
product to be subsidized
4. Retail Price for Certain type of Fuel Product

5. α (alpha) = Distribution Cost and Margin
6. Projection of MOPS change/delta

DIAGRAM PENETAPAN PERKIRAAN
SUBSIDI JENIS BBM TERTENTU
Berdasarkan
koordinasi bersama

Depkeu

BPH Migas
Depkeu

Bank Indonesia
+

DESDM




+

KOMISI VII DPR-RI

Bappenas

Perkiraan volume BBM yang disubsidi

Jenis BBM yang disubsidi

Harga Minyak Mentah (kisaran)

+

Penetapan :
a. Volume dan jenis BBM yang disubsidi serta volume minyak tanah yang disubstitusi ke LPG
b. Harga Minyak Mentah (kisaran)

2.
3.

Nilai tukar (kisaran)

Perkiraan Volume LPG atau setara volume minyak tanah yang
disubstitusi ke LPG

Pemerintah

1.

KOMISI XI
DPR-RI

c. Nilai tukar (kisaran)
Besaran alpha BBM (biaya distribusi dan margin) dibahas dalam Panja  DESDM yang menyampaikan presentasi
Berdasarkan angka 1 dan 2, Departemen ESDM dan Departemen Keuangan membuat perhitungan besarnya perhitungan subsidi BBM

Panitia
Anggaran DPRRI

SUBSIDI BBM

DIAGRAM OF OIL FUEL SUBSIDY CALCULATION
Harga Jual Eceran
BBM

Harga Patokan
MOPS

+

Alpha

(biaya distribusi dan
margin)

Premium

Premium
Delta MOPS

CRUDE

Minyak Tanah

Minyak Tanah

ICP

Biaya
pengolahan
di kilang

Transportasi,
Pelayanan Umum,
Usaha Kecil dan Usaha
Perikanan

Minyak Solar

Minyak Solar

Rumah Tangga dan
Usaha Kecil

Transportasi dan
Pelayanan
UmumUsaha Kecil dan
Usaha Perikanan

Antara lain : biaya tenaga kerja, depresiasi,
bunga, asuransi, biaya pengangkutan

Product

Konsumen

FUEL RETAIL PRICE

Jenis BBM

Harga Jual BBM Lama
(Sesuai Perpres No.
55/2005 jo Perpres No.
9/2006)

Harga Jual BBM Baru
(Sesuai Permen ESDM No.
16/2008)

1. Premium *)

4.500

6.000

2. Minyak Tanah **)

2.000

2.500

3. Minyak Solar *)

4.300

5.500

*) Termasuk Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) dan Pajak Bahan Bakar Kendaraan Bermotor (PBBKB) **) Termasuk PPN

Berlaku sejak tanggal 24 Mei 2008
Pukul 00.00 wib.

FUEL AND LNG SUBSIDY CALCULATION FOR FISCAL YEAR 2008
AND 2009
No.

Keterangan

2008
APBN-P

APBN
Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl)
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1)
c. Volume BBM (KL)
- Premium
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
- Minyak Solar

1.

d. Vol. Mitan yg disubstitusi ke LPG (kg)
(setara dengan KL)
e. Alpha BBM (%)
(dalam Rp. Miliar)
Subsidi BBM
a. Premium
b. Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
c. Minyak Solar

2.

Subsidi LPG

3.

Subsidi BBM dan LPG (1+2)

4.

Kekurangan TA 2007
a. Premium
b. Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
c. Minyak Solar
d. Sub Jumlah (a+b+c)
e. LPG
f. Jumlah (d+e)

5.

Jumlah (3+4)

Proyeksi

2009
Skenario

60,00
9.100,00
35.836.525
16.950.000
7.886.525
11.000.000

95,00
9.100,00
35.537.746
16.976.292
7.561.454
11.000.000

110,00
9.000,00
35.696.631
16.470.000
8.526.631
10.700.000

120,00
9.100,00
38.854.448
20.444.354
5.804.911
12.605.183

1.144.019.930
2.013.475
13,50%

1.144.019.930
2.013.475
9,00%

286.920.188
503.369
9,00%

1.600.000.000
4.000.000
9.00 (fixed US$100)

(17.478,31)
(3.267,80)
(10.049,07)
(4.161,44)

(114.646,65)
(44.048,54)
(37.949,12)
(32.649,00)

(126.539,07)
(44.238,67)
(47.777,51)
(34.522,89)

(133.942,75)
(56.159,28)
(34.950,13)
(42.833,34)

(3.721,44)

(9.565,27)

(2.991,54)

(19.285,16)

(21.199,75)

(124.211,92)

(129.530,61)

(153.227,91)

(689,71)
(742,44)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,30)
(149,93)
(2.604,23)

(689,71)
(742,44)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,30)
(149,93)
(2.604,23)

(689,71)
(742,43)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,29)
(2.454,29)

(126.816,15)

(132.134,84)

(155.682,20)

(21.199,75)

Catatan :
1. Delta MOPS adalah periode Januari s.d Desember 2007.
2. Kekurangan subsidi BBM dan LPG TA 2007 secara keseluruhan berjumlah Rp5.058,53 miliar (unaudited).
3. H arga jual B B M s ebagai berikut :
1 J an-23 Mei 2008
24 Mei s .d s ekarang
- P remium
4.500,00
6.000,00
- Minyak T anah
2.000,00
2.500,00
- Minyak S olar
4.300,00
5.500,00

FUEL SUBSIDY PATTERN YEAR 2003-2005 ( COST ‘N FEE SCHEME)

No.

Keterangan
APBN

1.
2.
3.

Perhitungan Subsidi BBM
(dalam Rp. Miliar)
Hasil Penjualan Bersih
Jumlah Biaya Pokok BBM
Jumlah (Subsidi BBM)/LBM (1-2)

2003
APBN-P

Audit

APBN

Tahun
2004
APBN-P

Audit

APBN

2005
APBN-P I
APBN-P II

Audit

76.783,69 76.719,57 76.807,08
89.993,74 101.231,68 107.673,40
(13.210,06) (24.512,11) (30.866,33)

78.121,10
92.648,24
(14.527,14)

78.058,40 84.149,50 79.278,93
98.986,93
139.085,44
141.141,30 160.923,79 98.279,35 175.501,85
243.862,41
(63.082,90) (76.774,29) (19.000,42) (76.514,92) 89,194.00 *) (104.776,97)

13.956,86
11.841,72
25.612,20
1.645,51
7.256,02
60.312,31

13.916,94
11.750,48
24.508,90
1.467,24
6.936,35
58.579,90

14.581,54
11.800,49
24.118,66
1.271,55
6.404,57
58.176,82

14.470,91
11.577,02
25.396,40
1.395,79
7.300,00
60.140,12

15.056,00
11.594,00
25.274,00
1.345,00
6.365,00
59.634,00

16.452,58
11.936,20
27.468,06
1.222,95
6.036,31
63.116,10

15.173,45
10.503,13
26.296,18
1.296,71
6.364,87
59.634,34

17.207,22
10.476,88
26.373,36
736,63
4.840,28
59.634,37

17.207,22
10.476,88
26.373,36
736,63
4.840,28
59.634,37

17.515,25
11.403,84
27.896,44
1.000,07
5.202,13
63.017,73

Parameter :
1.

Volume penjualan BBM (ribu KL)
a. Premium
b. Kerosene
c. Minyak Solar
d. Minyak Diesel
e. Minyak Bakar
f. Jumlah

2.

Harga MM Indonesia/ICP (US$/bbl)

22,00

27,50

28,77

22,00

36,00

37,58

24,00

45,00

56,58

53,40

3.

Nilai Tukar Rp per US$1

9.000

8.500

8.551 a)
8.424 b)

8.600

8.900

8.891

8.600

9.300

9.800

9.662

Catatan :
a) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 1 Januari s.d 16 September 2003
b) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 17 September s.d 31 Desember 2003
Hasil audit exclude koreksi tahun lalu.

FUEL SUBSIDY PATTERN YEAR 2006-2008 (PSO SCHEME)
Tahun
No.

A.

B.

Keterangan

Subsidi BBM
a. Premium
b. Minyak Tanah
c. Minyak Solar
d. Jumlah (a+b+c)

APBN

APBN-P

(9.333,43)
(29.939,38)
(15.002,87)
(54.275,67)

(20.966,37)
(29.984,75)
(13.260,96)
(64.212,08)

2006
Real. Pembyr.
(Unaudited)

(19.759,07)
(31.578,69)
(12.874,32)
(64.212,08)

Audit

(12.014,93)
(34.084,49)
(13.403,42)
(59.502,84)

Subsidi LPG

C. Jumlah (A+B)

(54.275,67) (64.212,08)

(64.212,08) (59.502,84)

APBN-P

2007
Revisi
Real. Pembyr. s.d
Pagu
25 Des (unaudited)

(14.528,34)
(31.209,30)
(14.278,91)
(60.016,55)

(13.131,18)
(31.745,14)
(10.163,89)
(55.040,21)

(26.384,74)
(40.509,86)
(21.179,73)
(88.074,33)

(1.821,35)

(564,04)

(125,91)

(61.837,90)

(55.604,25)

(88.200,24)

APBN

2008
APBN

APBN-P

(26.666,54)
(40.935,04)
(21.099,33)
(88.700,91)

(7.868,52)
(24.197,11)
(10.020,30)
(42.085,93)

(44.738,25)
(38.691,55)
(33.671,15)
(117.100,95)

(149,93)

(3.721,44)

(9.715,21)

(83.792,32)

(88.850,84)

(45.807,37)

(126.816,15)

(25.287,12)
(39.450,17)
(19.055,03)
(83.792,32)
-

Perk. Real.
(Unaudited)

Parameter :
1.

Vol. penjualan BBM (ribu KL)
a. Premium
b. Kerosene
c. Minyak Solar
d. Minyak Diesel
e. Minyak Bakar
f. Jumlah

17.080
10.000
14.498

17.000
9.900
11.000

16.770
10.014
11.037

16.807
9.959
10.667

17.000
8.912
11.000

16.582
9.591
9.858

17.645
9.787
10.812

17.599
9.689
10.150

17.930
9.852
10.884

16.950
7.887
11.000

16.976
7.561
11.000

41.578

37.900

37.821

37.433

36.912

36.031

38.244

37.437

38.665

35.837

35.538

567.767.000 181.274.250
988
319

20.638.836
36

-

2.

Vol. Mitan ke LPG (kg)
setara dengan ribu KL

21.498.189 1.144.019.930 1.144.019.930
38
2.013.475
2.013.475

3.

ICP (US$/bbl)

57,00

64,00

63,80

64,26

63,00

60,00

72,59

72,31

72,31

60,00

95,00

4.

Nilai Tukar Rp per US$1

9.900

9.300

9.123

9.119

9.300

9.050

9.125

9.093

9.094

9.100

9.100

CHART OF FUEL SUBSIDY AND VOLUME YEAR 2003-2008
120.000

70.000

60.000
100.000

50.000
80.000

40.000
60.000
30.000

40.000
20.000

20.000
10.000

-

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007 *)

2008 *)

Nilai Subsidi APBN (Rp. Miliar)

Nilai Subsidi APBN-P (Rp. Miliar)

Nilai Subsidi Hasil Audit (Rp. Miliar)

Volume BBM APBN (ribu KL)

Volume BBM APBN-P (ribu KL)

Volume BBM Hasil Audit (ribu KL)

PROJECTION FOR OIL FUEL AND LPG SUBSIDY YEAR 2010-2012
(MTEF)
(Rp. Miliar)

No.

1.
2.
3.
4.

Keterangan
Subsidi BBM
Premium
Minyak Tanah
Minyak Solar
Jumlah (1+2+3)

5. Subsidi LPG Tabung 3 Kg
6. Jumlah (4+5)
7. Kekurangan Tahun 2009
8. Jumlah (6+7)

Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl)
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1)
c. Volume BBM (KL)
- Premium
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
- Minyak Solar
d. Vol. Mitan yg disubstitusi ke LPG (kg)
(setara dengan KL)
e. Besaran alpha (%)

2010

2011

2012

(45.724,39)
(22.990,93)
(42.562,80)
(111.278,12)

(47.448,58)
(23.339,18)
(43.720,04)
(114.507,80)

(58.245,28)
(25.294,62)
(50.293,98)
(133.833,89)

(60.105,57)
(25.667,92)
(51.535,25)
(137.308,74)

(47.574,04)
(13.421,82)
(44.265,31)
(105.261,17)

(49.367,98)
(13.625,13)
(45.468,83)
(108.461,94)

(60.601,43)
(14.766,69)
(52.305,74)
(127.673,86)

(62.536,97)
(14.984,62)
(53.596,66)
(131.118,25)

(48.525,52)
(4.173,05)
(46.921,23)
(99.619,80)

(50.355,34)
(4.236,26)
(48.196,97)
(102.788,57)

(61.813,46)
(4.591,19)
(55.444,08)
(121.848,74)

(63.787,71)
(4.658,95)
(56.812,46)
(125.259,12)

(21.710,45)

(22.021,29)

(25.055,92)

(25.403,12)

(27.917,95)

(28.317,67)

(32.219,96)

(32.666,44)

(34.125,45)

(34.614,04)

(39.384,01)

(39.929,75)

(132.988,57)

(136.529,09)

(158.889,81)

(162.711,86)

(133.179,13)

(136.779,61)

(159.893,82)

(163.784,68)

(133.745,26)

(137.402,61)

(161.232,74)

(165.188,87)

(1.500,00)

(1.500,00)

(1.500,00)

(1.500,00)

(134.488,57)

(138.029,09)

(160.389,81)

(164.211,86)

(133.179,13)

(136.779,61)

(159.893,82)

(163.784,68)

(133.745,26)

(137.402,61)

(161.232,74)

(165.188,87)

110,00
9.200
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494

110,00
9.300
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494

120,00
9.200
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494

120,00
9.300
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494

110,00
9.200
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953

110,00
9.300
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953

120,00
9.200
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953

120,00
9.300
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953

110,00
9.200
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711

110,00
9.300
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711

120,00
9.200
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711

120,00
9.300
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711

2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000
5.601.630
5.601.630
5.601.630
5.601.630
7.203.260
7.203.260
7.203.260
7.203.260
8.804.890
8.804.890
8.804.890
8.804.890
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00

Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012 (MTEF)
2010
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.982.255 KL (kilo
liter), with details as follows:
1.
Gasoline (Premium) : 21.639.372 KL
2.
Kerosene
: 3.981.389 KL
3.
Diesel Oil
: 13.361.494 KL
Assumptions:






-

Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,9% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated economic growth 6,5% - 6,7% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated Inflation 5,5% - 6% (DG Oil and Gas)
Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated exchange rate Rp 9.200,-/US$ - Rp. 9.300,-/US$ (DG Oil and Gas)
Conversion of Kerosene to LPG = 1.601.630 KL (PT PERTAMINA)
Control card from Inquiries of Subsidized Fuel Consumers in 2008 in 102 districs/cities
approximately 277.365 with saving assumption of 19% (cencus in 2007) (BPH
Migas)

WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 6%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
• Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2010 estimated to be 83.210 families or
around 30%
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 6%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
• Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
• Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage

Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012
2011
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.734.972 KL (kilo liter), with details as
1. follows:
(Premium) : 22.514.733 KL
2. Gasoline
: 2.324.286 KL
3. Kerosene
Diesel Oil
: 13.895.953 KL
Assumptions:
Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,8% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated economic growth 6,7% - 6,9% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated Inflation 5% - 5,5% (DG Oil and Gas)
Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated exchange rate Rp 9.200,-/US$ - Rp. 9.300,-/US$ (DG Oil and Gas)
Conversion of Kerosene to LPG = 1.601.630 KL (PT PERTAMINA)
- Control card from Inquiries of Subsidized Fuel Consumers in 2008 in 102 districs/cities
approximately 277.365 with saving assumption of 19% (cencus in 2007) (BPH Migas)

WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 4%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
• Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2011 estimated to be 55.473 families or
around 20%
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 4%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
• Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
• Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage

Fuel Volume Basis for 2010-2012
2012
Estimation of fuel consumption for APBN calculation = 38.417.394 KL (kilo liter), with details as
1. follows:
(Premium)
: 22.965.028 KL
2. Gasoline
Kerosene
:
722.656 KL
3. Diesel Oil
: 14.729.711 KL
Assumptions:
Growth Elasticity projected to be 0,7% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated economic growth 6,9% - 7,1% (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated Inflation 5% - 5,5% (DG Oil and Gas)
Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) = US$ 110 - 120/barrel (DG Oil and Gas)
Estimated exchange rate Rp 9.200,-/US$ - Rp. 9.300,-/US$ (DG Oil and Gas)
Conversion of Kerosene to LPG = 1.601.630 KL (PT PERTAMINA)
- Control card from Inquiries of Subsidized Fuel Consumers in 2008 in 102 districs/cities
approximately 277.365 with saving assumption of 19% (cencus in 2007) (BPH Migas)

WITH ASSUMPTIONS…(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 2%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
• Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
• Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
• Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
Diesel Oil
• Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 6%
• As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, there’s a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
• Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
• Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage

THANK YOU