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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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Content

Introduction History of Aristo Logic and Fuzzy logic Stages of fuzzy modeling An Academic example Conclusion References

Fuzzy Logic

ARSTO LOGIC

FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy Logic

A(x)

a1

a2

a3

a4

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Fuzzy Logic

Intuition Logic Experience

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Discuss with people who know about the subject and than make an arrangement Trial and error Use the data directly and make arrangement.

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AUB(x) = maks {A(x) , B(x)} AB(x) = min {A(x) , B(x)}

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Rule Base

AND OR A B = min (A, B) A B = maks (A, B)

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Example

The users of the heating system wants Less fuel consumption Easy to use Inexpensive More warranty period

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Company A: Fuel consumption is good Company B: Fuel concumption is high Company C: Fuel consumption is low Company D: Fuel consumption is normal Company E: Fuel consumption is good

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Company A: Usage is quite hard Company B: Usage is quite easy Company C: Usage is easy Company D: Usage is easier Company E: Usage is hard

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Company A: 7 years. Company B: 8 years. Company C: 5 years. Company D: 6 years. Company E: 8 years

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(x)

M M M M M

1,0

0,8

0,8

0,6 0,5 0,5 5 0,4

x

c b e a d

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We should choose the max mambership value from this set. Best heating system company is D.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 18

Maximum membership method The center of gravity method Weighted average method Avarage maximum membership method.

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All inputs and outputs are fuzzy functions. can easily create compatible with human behavior

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Most comman defuzzification system for this model is the center of gravity method

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Duductive part (THEN) of the system is a simple mathematical function of the premise part. It can be a constant or a linear function. IF x=A AND y=B THEN z=f(x,y)=px+qy+r

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ADVANTAGES Easy to compute Works well with the other techniques suitable for mathematical analysis

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Thesis

Modeling Bid Mark-up of International Construction Projects with Fuzzy Logic

Gen, A., 2012 Uluslararas naat Projelerinde Katk Paynn Bulank Mantk ile Modellenmesi, T Yap letmesi.

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The goal of the survey is determining importance levels of factors that affects amount of bid mark-up.

The other goal is to create a fuzzy logic model to estimate amount of bid mark-up in the light of the obtained datas.

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Bid mark-up is a component of bidding price which is prepared by construction companies in bidding period.

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Factor Titles

61 factors which is contained with the literature survey are divided into 5 titles. 1-Factors associated with the employer 2-Factors associated with the project 3-Factors associated with the firm 4-Factors associated with the bidding period and the contract 5-Factors associated with the economical milieu and the risk

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Survey

16 firms with 39 different project participated to survey. The questionnaire which is generally answered by bidding department managers, is provided a reliable database.

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Ranking

The factors that affects amount of bid markup, ranked on an importance scale from 1 to 5 by the company representatives. 1: very low 2: low 3: medium 4: high 5: very high

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As complexity rises, precise statements lose meaning and meaningful statements lose precision Lotfi Zadeh

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Fuzzy logic modeling doesnt need any acceptation contrary to statistical and stochastic processes. This is the most important advantage of fuzzy logic modeling. In order to create this kind of model, the logical relations between input and output datas should be exposed.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 34

Method of Working

5 input data for the fuzzy logic model (Employer Factor, Project Factor, Firm Factor, Bidding Period and Contract Factors, Economical Milieu and Risk Factors) and an output data (Total estimated amount of bid mark-up which is estimated as a percentage of construction cost).

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 35

Method of Working

Mamdani type of fuzzy logic modeling method is used because of easily creating and its compatibility with the human behaviour and senses. MATLAB package program was used for creation of the model.

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Method of Working

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Fuzzy Logic

Method of Working

Fuzzification - First of all, fuzzification of input and output datas is required in order to create a fuzzy logic model. - The fuzzification comprises the process of transforming crisp values into grades of membership for linguistic terms of fuzzy sets. The membership function is used to associate a grade to each linguistic term.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 38

Method of Working

Forming fuzzy rule base - The second step is forming a fuzzy rule base. - The fuzzy rule base is formed by rules like IFTHAN which connects input variables to the output.

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Method of Working

Fuzzy inference process - The relations that formed in fuzzy rule base between input and output fuzzy sets are collected in this process. - The process of fuzzy inference provides to get one result from the system - The form of the output is determined by all inferences of rules that are contained.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 40

Method of Working

Defuzzification - Defuzzification is the final step of fuzzy logic modeling which converts fuzzy datas to precise results. - Defuzzification is the process of producing a quantifiable result in fuzzy logic, given fuzzy sets and corresponding membership degrees.

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Fuzzification

en (2009) states that personal feelings, logic and experiences are prominent references for assigning degree of membership and membership functions. Its quite helpful to overcome so many problems. Therefore, the assignments was made according to this principle. Input values assigned to membership functions and fuzzificated through expert opinions in this study.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 42

Fuzzification

In survey study, input datas ranked in 1-5 interval. According to this scale: value 1 is very low, value 2 is low, value 3 is medium, value 4 is high and value 5 is very high.

In model study, 5 levels are handled again for fuzzification of input datas. Input datas are fuzzificated with the same sets.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 43

Fuzzification

Output variable(bid mark-up) is also fuzzificated into 5 level. Triangle membership function is used at 4 set. Trapeze membership function is used at 1 set.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 44

Fuzzification

Very low set: Full membership (=1) for 10 value. =0 for 17.5 value.

Low set: Parameters of the set are *13.5, 18.75, 24+. Medium set: Parameters of the set are *20.5, 25.75, 31+. High set: Parameters of the set are *27.5, 32.75, 38+. Very high set: Trapeze membership function. Starts from 35 value. =1 from 40 to 50 values.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 45

A systematic has developed by considering possible combinations. The rules are based on this systematic.

675 IF-THEN rule has written down for the model.

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The distribution of the rules by output fuzzy sets:

The distribution of the rules by output fuzzy sets. Gen, A., (2012)

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For an example, randomly selected 2 rules are shown. 1) IF Employer Factors is LOW and Project Factors is VERY LOW and Firm Factors is LOW and Bidding Period Contract Factors is VERY LOW and Economical Milieu Risk Factors is HIGH then Bid Mark-up is VERY LOW. 2) IF Employer Factors is HIGH and Project Factors is VERY HIGH and Firm Factors is VERY HIGH and Bidding Period Contract Factors is LOW and Economical Milieu Risk Factors is LOW then Bid Mark-up is HIGH.

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In the light of the given datas fuzzy inference engine provides the calculations for finding the answers of the problems. Fuzzy Inference Engine applies intersection (MIN) or union (MAX) processes for input datas according to structure of rule.

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Deffuzification is re-quantification of fuzzificated linguistic datas. The composite output fuzzy set is built by taking the union of all output fuzzy sets. Deffuzification is a kind of interpolation that requires approximate solution and smoothing a lot. The most commonly used defuzzification method for Mamdani type of fuzzy systems is center of gravity method. This method is also usable for asymmetrical membership functions.

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Fuzzy Logic

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 51

Employer=2.5 Project=2.5 Firm=2.5 hale=2.5 Risk=2.5 Bid Mark-up=22.3

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 52

Comparing the survey with the real system. Gen, A., (2012)

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Fuzzy Logic

Comparing the survey with the real system. Gen, A., (2012)

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As a result of comparison of fuzzy logic model and estimated amount of bid mark-up, the mean absolute error is determined as 7.77%

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Comparison between model estimations and survey datas. Gen, A., (2012)

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 56

Distribution graph of model estimations and survey datas. Gen, A., (2012)

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 57

R2 value which determined between data sets, is calculated as 0,916. This result tells us that there is a strong correlation between bid mark-up values which comes from the survey and estimated bid markup values which comes from fuzzy logic model. This point should be emphasized in terms of success of the model.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 58

Distribution of model and survey datas on x=y line. Gen, A., (2012)

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x=y line shows R2=1 condition. In other words if the estimations of model were totally true, the blue dots would be on the line.

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Conclusion

Fuzzy logic provides an alternative way to represent linguistic and subjective attributes of the real world in computing. It is compatible with human behavior and human logic. It doesnt need a mathematical model for its applications. The software is easy and economical. Its easy to learn, flexible than other techniques.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 61

Conclusion

Because of the complex and uncertain charachter of construction sector, fuzzy logic is a better solution for decision-making phase.

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References

en, Z., 2009. Bulank Mantk ilkeleri ve Modelleme, 3. Bask, Su Vakf Yaynlar, stanbul, Trkiye Gen,A., 2012, Uluslararas inaat projelerinde katk paynn bulank mantk ile modellenmesi, Yksek Lisans Tezi, stanbul Teknik niversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstits, stanbul Suba, S., Beyciciolu, A., Emirolu,M., 2008, Hafif betonlarda donat aderans dayanmnn bulank mantk yntemiyle modellenmesi, Yap Eitimi Blm Teknik Eitim Fakltesi Dzce niversitesi, DZCE Sar, M., Murat, Y.., Krabal, M., Fuzzy modeling approach and applications

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management Fuzzy Logic 63

Thank You.

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