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GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2013

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Prepared by: Patrick DeHaan, Senior Petroleum Analyst Gregg Laskoski, Senior Petroleum Analyst

SUMMARY

About Our Annual Outlook
GasBuddy has become a highly recognized forecaster in recent years, having made appearances on/in NBC’s Today Show, ABC World News Tonight, ABC Nightline, CBS Evening News, Fox Business, Fox, NBC’s Evening News, NPR, USA Today, L.A.Times, N.Y. Times, and many others. ® Accuracy, reliability, and neutrality are GasBuddy ’s mission with price forecasting, and it is achieved with independent analysis featured in this outlook. GasBuddy ’s service has won multiple awards from publications such as ® Time Magazine and PC World. In addition, GasBuddy ’s smartphone app has been mentioned in hundreds of print publications as well as major media outlets, and has been downloaded nearly 25-million times. It should be noted that this outlook is not indicative of what will happen, rather what we believe could happen, given specific inputs and different impacts and scenarios on production, supply, and demand. It should also be ® noted 2013 is the first time GasBuddy is including diesel forecasts in its release. Gasoline markets are complex, and this analysis is intended to take current factors and speculate on how today’s events may impact gasoline prices in ® the future. GasBuddy has worked to make these forecasts as reliable as possible and to be understood by anyone with little or no background on oil and petroleum markets and economics.
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About the Authors
Patrick DeHaan has been cited by the San Jose Mercury News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and has been forecasting gasoline prices since 2004. Gregg Laskoski, a former reporter, was Managing Director at AAA Auto Club South before joining GasBuddy in 2011. 2

Gasoline Forecast

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GASOLINE FORECAST

2013 Gasoline Forecast
Part 1
Month January Lowest $3.21 Highest $3.43 Median $3.29

February
March April May June

$3.25
$3.53 $3.80 $3.73 $3.49

$3.52
$3.81 $4.05 $3.94 $3.69

$3.39
$3.67 $3.95 $3.85 $3.60

July
August September October November

$3.63
$3.54 $3.46 $3.29 $3.26

$3.87
$3.78 $3.72 $3.61 $3.54

$3.73
$3.65 $3.58 $3.45 $3.40

December

$3.18

$3.48

$3.33

Numbers reflect bottom, top, and median U.S. average for given month

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GASOLINE FORECAST

2013 Gasoline Forecast
Part 2
Data © GasBuddy $4.40

$4.20

$4.00

$3.80

$3.60

$3.40

$3.20

$3.00

Red line represents middle of expected range for each respective month. Black vertical boxes represent expected range for each month.

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GASOLINE FORECAST

2013 Peak Gas Prices
Selected Major Cities
City Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Columbus Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Los Angeles Memphis Miami Minneapolis New York City Philadelphia Phoenix San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Expected Averages $3.80-$4.10 $3.85-$4.15 $3.75-$4.05 $4.35-$4.60 $3.95-$4.25 $3.80-$4.05 $3.80-$4.05 $3.95-$4.25 $3.85-$4.15 $4.00-$4.35 $3.85-$4.15 $4.35-$4.65 $3.75-$4.00 $3.95-$4.30 $3.85-$4.20 $4.10-$4.40 $3.90-$4.20 $3.90-$4.25 $4.25-$4.60 $4.10-$4.50 $3.85-$4.10
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Prices represent possible 2013 price peaks for selected U.S. cities

GASOLINE FORECAST

2013 Forecast Expected Volatility
Volatility is a given for any gasoline price forecast as unpredictable geopolitical issues arise, as well as refinery outages and problems, and weather impacts production of products.

We can expect significant volatility in gasoline prices during 2013, but most notably during the following periods for the following reasons:
April 1 through May 15: Refineries begin producing cleaner burning summer gasoline and perform maintenance. Problems typically arise from plant restarts and low supply of mandated blends until maintenance season is over, usually in mid/late May. August 1 through September 15: Hurricane season has brought significant harm to oil infrastructure in the last decade, and while hurricanes are not guaranteed to impact such facilities, such an event could interrupt notable infrastructure: Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), Gulf Coast refineries, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Offshore oil drilling. The fear of a storm impacts oil prices. October 15 through November 15: Winter gasoline phase-in will likely lead to some downward direction, but could also result in some volatility surrounding refinery maintenance. This time frame will likely see lower volatility in prices compared to the previous two time frames listed.

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Diesel Forecast

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DIESEL FORECAST

2013 Diesel Forecast
Part 1
Month Lowest Highest Median

January

$3.79

$4.05

$3.90

February
March April May June

$3.83
$3.94 $3.91 $3.84 $3.79

$4.09
$4.18 $4.14 $4.03 $3.92

$4.01
$4.09 $4.04 $3.91 $3.74

July
August September October November

$3.75
$3.71 $3.82 $3.93 $3.81

$3.88
$4.00 $4.10 $4.20 $4.11

$3.63
$3.83 $4.01 $4.12 $4.04

December

$3.77

$4.04

$3.97

Numbers reflect bottom, top, and median U.S. average for given month

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DIESEL FORECAST

2013 Diesel Forecast
Part 2
Data © GasBuddy $4.40

$4.20

$4.00

$3.80

$3.60

$3.40

$3.20

$3.00

Red line represents middle of expected range for each respective month. Black vertical boxes represent expected range for each month.

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2013 Fuel Forecast Energy Issues
Issues likely to have a significant impact on gasoline prices:

 Federal policies: One of the consequences of the
quantitative easing programs is that it weakens the value of the U.S. dollar versus global currencies. Where crude oil is concerned, that's especially important since global crude oil transactions use the U.S. dollar as the prime currency. When the dollar loses value, crude oil climbs higher and Americans pay more for gasoline.

 Record exports of oil and petroleum products have kept pressure on domestic prices. As of January, 2013, the Energy Information Administration reports that exports have risen 217% in the last ten years, most recently rising to nearly three million barrels per day. The amount of products exported amounts to over 16% of what Americans consume everyday.  Refinery issues from coast to coast illustrated our infrastructure vulnerability in 2012... In 2013 we'll need to see improvements in addressing safety issues. We'll also see whether refineries have sufficiently addressed the weaknesses that were exposed last year. A focus on safety and flexibility may help mitigate the spikes that are inevitable during the spring transition from winter blend gasoline to summer blend production.

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2013 Forecast Quotes
“A good year for many of us will simply mean the absence of new record high gasoline prices” -Gregg Laskoski, Senior Petroleum Analyst

“The saying goes that all you can be sure of in life is death and taxes. I’d add the seasonal run-up in gas prices every spring as something I’m sure of in life” -Patrick DeHaan, Senior Petroleum Analyst
“Even with increasing energy production in the U.S., declining fuel consumption, and improving fuel efficiency, Americans may still face rising gasoline prices in 2013... and that appears to be closely tied to the nation's $16 trillion debt” -Gregg Laskoski, Senior Petroleum Analyst “We’ve taken dozens of hours assembling something that may frustrate motorists in minutes, but we believe our forecast is necessary to aid motorists in understanding where gasoline prices may be headed in the upcoming year” -Patrick DeHaan, Senior Petroleum Analyst

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About GasBuddy
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GasBuddy was founded in 2000 to save motorists money at the pump and has become a leading source of gasoline price data. Pricing data is derived from both its large number of volunteer price spotters and stations that participate by ® sending pricing data directly to GasBuddy . Average gasoline prices are continuously updated using new data inputs, and ® GasBuddy is the only source of near real-time pricing data, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. GasBuddy runs over 250 gasoline price-tracking websites covering all of the ® United States and Canada. In addition, GasBuddy offers free smartphone apps for mobile phone users, and has seen over 25 million downloads since its release for iPhone, Android, Blackberry, and Windows phones. The app has consistently been the top travel app downloaded by smartphone users. Market-specific and other custom forecasts are available from GasBuddy for a nominal charge. GasBuddy has provided forecasts for large end-users as well as smaller businesses, as well as custom alerts before price spikes are expected. For more information, see contact information below.
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Contacts:
Patrick DeHaan, Senior Petroleum Analyst Chicago, IL (o) 773-644-1427 (skype) gasbuddypd
Gregg Laskoski, Senior Petroleum Analyst Tampa, FL (o) 813-436-9422 (skype) gregg.laskoski
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