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Week 7

Dr. Hisham Madi

What is a Hypothesis?

Researchers are interested in answering many types of questions. For example, Does a new medication lower blood pressure? Does the public prefer a certain color in a new fashion line? Is a new teaching technique better than a traditional one? Do seat belts reduce the severity of injuries?

These types of questions can be addressed through statistical hypothesis testing, which is a decision-making process for evaluating claims about a population.

What is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a claim (assumption) about a population parameter. A hypothesis is making a decision about a population parameter based on the value of a sample statistic. This claim may or may not be true.

H 0 : = 12

H 0 : = 12

Begin with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true Similar to the notion of innocent until proven guilty Always contains = , or sign May or may not be rejected

Situation A

A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new medication will have any undesirable side effects. The researcher is particularly concerned with the pulse rate of the patients who take the medication. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain unchanged after a patient takes the medication? The researcher knows that the mean pulse rate for the population under study is 82 beats per minute.

H 0 : = 82

H1 : 82

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Situation B

A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobile battery. The mean lifetime of the automobile battery without the additive is 36 months. The hypotheses for this situation are

H 0 : = 36

H1 : > 36

Situation C

A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type of insulation in houses. If the average of the monthly heating bills is $78, her hypotheses about heating costs with the use of insulation are The hypotheses for this situation are

H 0 : = 78

H1 : < 78

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Claim

When a researcher conducts a study, he or she is generally looking for evidence to support a claim. claim Therefore, the claim should be stated as the alternative hypothesis, or research hypothesis. hypothesis A claim, though, can be stated as either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis; however, the statistical evidence can only support the claim if it is the alternative hypothesis. Statistical evidence can be used to reject the claim if the claim is the null hypothesis. These facts are important when you are stating the conclusion of a statistical study.

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Hypothesis Testing

After stating the hypotheses, the researchers next step is to design the study. The researcher selects the correct statistical test, chooses an appropriate level of test significance, and formulates a plan for significance conducting the study.

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Hypothesis Testing

A statistical test uses the data obtained from a sample to make a decision about whether the null hypothesis should be rejected. The numerical value obtained from a statistical test is called the test value. value In the hypothesis-testing situation, there are four possible outcomes

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Hypothesis Testing

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Type I Error

A Type I error will occur when H0 is actually true (that is, the cans do contain, on average, 12 ounces of soda), but it just happens that we draw a sample with a mean that is much less than 12 ounces and we wrongfully reject the null hypothesis, H0 . A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected. The value of represents the probability of committing this type of error; that is = P(H0 is rejected / H0 is true) The value of represents the significance level of the test.

Hypothesis Testing

In reality, the null hypothesis may or may not be true, and a decision is made to reject or not to reject it on the basis of the data obtained from a sample. A type I error occurs if one rejects the null hypothesis when it is true. A type II error occurs if one does not reject the null hypothesis when it is false.

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Null hypothesis is rejected for any (significance level) greater than this value and it is not rejected for any less than this value. P-Value is defined as the smallest level of significance at which the given null hypothesis is rejected. Using the p-value approach, we reject the null hypothesis if p-value or > p-value

Steps to Perform a Test of Hypothesis Using the pValue Approach 1. State the null and alternative hypothesis. 2. Select the distribution to use. 3. Calculate the p-value. 4. Make a decision.

Example

At Canon Food Corporation, it used to take an average of 90 minutes for new workers to learn a food processing job. Recently the company installed a new food processing machine. The supervisor at the company wants to find if the mean time taken by new workers to learn the food processing procedure on this new machine is different from 90 minutes. A sample of 20 workers showed that it took, on average, 85 minutes for them to learn the food processing procedure on the new machine. It is known that the learning times for all new workers are normally distributed with a population standard deviation of 7 minutes. Find the p-value for the test that the mean learning time for the food processing procedure on the new machine is different from 90 minutes. What will your conclusion be if = 0.01?

A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36 four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950. The population standard deviation is $659. Is there evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value method. Step 1: State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36 four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950. The population standard deviation is $659. Is there evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value method. Step 2: Compute the test value.

A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average cost of tuition and fees at a four-year public college is greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36 four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be $5950. The population standard deviation is $659. Is there evidence to support the claim at a 0.05? Use the P-value method.

Step 3: Find the P-value. Using Table, find the area for z = 2.28. The area is 0.9887. Subtract from 1.0000 to find the area of the tail. Hence, the P-value is 1.0000 0.9887 = 0.0113.

Step 4: Make the decision. Since the P-value is less than 0.05, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. Step 5: Summarize the results. There is enough evidence to support the claim that the tuition and fees at four-year public colleges are greater than $5700. Note: If = 0.01, the null hypothesis would not be rejected.

The t-Distribution

The t distribution is similar to the normal distribution in some respects. Like the normal distribution curve, the t distribution curve is symmetric (bell shaped) about the mean. The total area under a t distribution curve is 1.0. The t distribution curve has a lower height and a wider spread.

The t-Distribution

As the sample size increases, the t distribution approaches the standard normal distribution The shape of a particular t distribution curve depends on the number of degrees of freedom (df )

The t-Distribution

The number of degrees of freedom is defined as the number of observations that can be chosen freely.

Example

Suppose we know that the mean of four values is 20. Consequently, the sum of these four values is 20(4)=80 How many values out of four can we choose freely so that the sum of these four values is 80? The answer is that we can freely choose 4-1=3 values

The t-Distribution

Example

Find the value of t for 16 degrees of freedom and .05 area in the right tail of a t distribution curve.

The t-Distribution

Because of the symmetric shape of the t distribution curve, the value of t for 16 degrees of freedom and .05 area in the left tail is -1.746.

A psychologist claims that the mean age at which children start walking is 12.5 months. Carol wanted to check if this claim is true. She took a random sample of 18 children and found that the mean age at which these children started walking was 12.9 months with a standard deviation of .80 month. It is known that the ages at which all children start walking are approximately normally distributed. Find the p-value for the test that the mean age at which all children start walking is different from 12.5 months. What will your conclusion be if the significance level is 1%?

Now we can find the range for the p-value. we go to Table of t distribution table) and find the row of In this row, we find the two values of t that cover t=3.578 Note that we use the positive value of the test statistic t, although our test statistic has a negative value. From Table, df=44 the largest value of t is 3.286, for which the area in the tail of the t distribution is .001. This means that the area to the left of t=-3.286 is 0.001. Because -3.578 is smaller than -3.286, the area to the left of t =-3.578 is smaller than 0.001. therefore the pvalue for t= -3.578 is less than 0.00. the p value for this example is less than 0.001

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