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FEWS NET Afghanistan

Outline

Description Population distribution poverty Food Insecurity Livelihood zones Agroclimatic factors

Special events and FS Conflict Drought

Rainfall/snow Agriculture Water

FEWS NETs food security Monitoring tools Snow pack Supply-demand ground water NDVI Rainfall Water equivalent wrsi Monitoring 2003-2004 Agriculture Hazard Index by District

Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-

Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-

Poverty Distribution
cost of a typical rural Afghan household Af8,450 per person per year, equivalent to Af23 or US$0.43 per person/day for subsistence food consumption. 52.8% of the rural population in Afghanistan is poor lack of access to food is due to low incomes, as opposed to lack of food supply. (NRVA) Income: Employment, livestock, remittances and petty trade accounts for a significant portion of rural household income

The distribution of poverty, as measured by food consumption is 2,100 kilocalories per day per person

Food Insecurity (FI)


20+ years of war and 4 years of drought has destroyed the economic structure of the people.
Large amount of the pop is vulnerable. 2002-03 WFP 300,000MT of food aid for 20% of pop. The main reasons for FI : reliance on underground water for irrigation cold spells early in the planting season lack of off-farm income and limited employment reduction of livestock and herds limited access to fertilizer and improvedseeds the inflow of returnees and insecurity.

Rainfall/snow

Starts on Sep on the north-east and going to the south and west by Nov, the peak months for rainfall are Feb, March, April which build up the snow.

Agriculture

Agriculture is the main economic activity 12% of land is cultivated 46% is pasture Wheat is the main crop, other cereal maiz, barely and rice Specialty crops, such as fruit and nuts are consumed locally and are the main agricultural food export Opium poppy is the main cash generator 90% of wheat is planted in the fall, 80% is irrigated

Water

Most of Afghanistans agricultural land is irrigated and depend not on the immediate rainfall but on water released in the spring from snow that builds up during the winter. So it is possible to get a good idea on water availability for the fall harvest, many months ahead of time, by analyzing the snow build up.

Drought 1998-2001(02)
A dried up kariz (subtarranean canal)

Recent drought (1999-2001) Studies conducted by FAO, DCAAR and SCA 60-70% of the under water channels and 85% of the shallow wells dried out during the drought.

dried agriculture land

Food Security Monitoring


FEWS NET Agroclimatic Monitoring Tools

Irrigation Supply and Demand


Irrigation Supply & Demand Anomaly (Median Year)

Seasonal Irrigation Supply & Demand

WRSI

Produces a graph for present period, would be good to have a historical

irrigated

rain fed

Rangelands

Wells being monitored since 2004

Monitoring 2003-04

A story of monitoring

Good snow build up

Fall-03

Winter-04

Fall-04

Winter-05

Fall-05

Winter-06

farmers reportedly satisfied with the level of rainfall and expecting a good season if climate conditions remain similarly favorable in coming months.

Unseasonably high temperatures have caused the melting of the snow cover in much of the country. Rapid melting of snow shortens the period of percolation for ground water recharge

By Late Feb accumulated precipitation levels were similar to 2003, though well below the long-term average

A story of monitoring

Fall-03

Winter-04

Fall-04

Winter-05

Fall-05

Winter-06

By the end of March The Water supply and demand model was showing the impact of the early snow melting

Watersheds started to show water deficit to support crop.

A story of monitoring

Agricultural crop failure in most of the provinces. As shown by the NDVI comparison with to 2003

Fall-03

Winter-04

Fall-04

Winter-05

Fall-05

Winter-06

By June, Most of the shallow wells providing water for human and livestock consumption had dried out and some rivers had no water.

Most of the karizes that were fully or partially functioning needed to be cleaned or rehabilitated. Two dams in Ghazni Province (Sardeh and Zana Khan Dams) were under rehabilitation and Sultan Dam needed to be rehabilitated.

A story of monitoring
High temperature as well as very low precipitation had caused a severe shortage of drinking and irrigation water in many parts of the country.

Fall-03

Winter-04

Fall-04

Winter-05

Fall-05

Winter-06

Field assessments indicated further declines in water sources compared to 2003 and recent drought years.

About 8000 families were reported as displaced due to water shortage

A story of monitoring

Snow Depleation History, Basin 102


Fall-03 Winter-04

1.2000 Winter-05 Fall-04 1.0000

Fall-05

Winter-06

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

% of Snow

By Dec 2004 large amounts of snow had fallen in most of the country.

0.8000 0.6000 0.4000 0.2000 0.0000

1 12

25

49

73

27

29

32

34

97

Julian dates

14

Agriculture Hazard Index by District

irrigated

rain fed

Rangelands

The Supply and demand ration gives a percent measurement of the correspondence between water supply and demand.

The supply and demand (SD) Hazard Index (SDHI) is calculated as I=1-0.02(SD-50) for SD<100, (SD is the anomaly). This index measures the risk for those areas that present deficit of water.

The SDHI is then multiplied by the %irrigated crop by district to obtain the Irrigated crop Hazard Index.

The NDVI Hazard Index (NDVIHI) is calculated as I=10.02(NDVI-50) for NDVI<100, (NDVI is the anomaly).

Name: Shahrak

Name: Khosh Wa Firing LVZ: Salangi Plains Mixed Farming Pop: 95076

LVZ: West-Central Highlands Agro-Pastoral


Pop: 83916 Name: Badhlani Jadid LVZ: High cereal production

Pop:70273

References

FEWS NET monthly reports 2003-2006 Documentation for FEWS tools National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) in Rural Afghanistan