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Foreign Exchange Rates

Presenter Md. Zahangir Alam Assistant Professor of Finance International Islamic University Chittagong

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Types of Exchange Rates


Cross-Exchange Rates It is an exchange rate between two currencies. Bid Rate It is a buying rate. Ask Rate It is a selling rate. Freely Floating Exchange Rate It is one whose level is determined exclusively by the underlying balance of supply and demand for the currencies involved, with no outside intervention.

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Fixed Rates Fix the exchange rate at an acceptable level. Managed Floating A fixed rate with fluctuation bands.

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Determinants of Exchange Rates


Differentials in Inflation As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Differentials in Interest Rates Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to decrease. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the currency down.

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The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates that is, lower interest rates tend to increase exchange rates. Current-Account Deficits The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows the country is spending more on foreign trade than it is earning, and that it is borrowing capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit.

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In other words, the country requires more foreign currency than it receives through sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than foreigners demand for its products. The excess demand for foreign currency increases the country's exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheap enough for foreigners, and foreign assets are too expensive to generate sales for domestic interests.

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Public Debt Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects and governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? A large debt encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately paid off with cheaper home currency in the future.

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In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a large debt, but increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not able to service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bond, increasing the money supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby lowering their prices.

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Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe the country risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own securities denominated in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the country's debt rating is a crucial determinant of its exchange rate.

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Terms of Trade A ratio comparing export prices to import prices, the terms of trade is related to current accounts and the balance of payments. If the price of a country's exports rises by a greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved. Increasing terms of trade shows greater demand for the country's exports. This, in turn, results in rising revenues from exports, which provides increased demand for the country's currency (and an increase in the currency's value).
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If the price of exports rises by a smaller rate than that of its imports, the currency's value will decrease in relation to its trading partners. Political Stability and Economic Performance Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with strong economic performance in which to invest their capital. A country with such positive attributes will draw investment funds away from other countries perceived to have more political and economic risk. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency and a movement of capital to the currencies of more stable countries.
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Reasons to Forecast Exchange Rates


Hedging Decisions Short-term Financing Decisions Short-term Investment Decisions Capital Budgeting Decisions Long-term Financing Decisions Earnings Assessment

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Forecasting Techniques
Technical Forecasting
Involves the use of historical data to predict future values. It includes statistical analysis and time series models. Speculators may find the models useful for predicting day-today movements. However, since they typically focus on the near future and rarely provide point/range estimates, they are of limited use to MNCs.

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Fundamental Forecasting It is based on the fundamental relationships between economic variables and exchange rates. A forecast may arise simply from a subjective assessment of the factors that affect exchange rates. A forecast may be based on quantitative measurements (with the aid of regression models and sensitivity analysis) too.

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Known relationships like the PPP can be used for the regression models. However, problems may arise. In the case of PPP: the timing of the impact of inflation on trade behavior is not known for sure, prices may be measured inaccurately, trade barriers may disrupt the trade patterns that should emerge, and other influential factors may exist.

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In general, fundamental forecasting is limited by the uncertain timing of the impact of the factors, the need for forecasts for factors with instantaneous impact, the possibility that other relevant factors may be omitted from the model, and changes in the sensitivity of currency movements to each factor over time.

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Market-based Forecasting It involves developing forecasts from market indicators. Usually, either the spot rate or the forward rate is used, since speculation should push the rates to the level that reflect the market expectation of the future exchange rate. Since forward contracts have low trading volumes and are not widely quoted, the interest rates on risk-free instruments can be used to determine what the forward rates should be according to IRP for long-term forecasting.

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Mixed Forecasting
It refers to the use of a combination of forecasting techniques. The actual forecast is a weighted average of the various forecasts developed.

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Evaluation of Forecast Performance


One measure of forecast performance is the absolute forecast error as a percentage of the realized value: | forecasted value realized value | realized value Over time, MNCs are likely to have more confidence in their forecasts when they know the mean error for their past forecasts. In particular, the value of a less volatile currency is likely to be forecasted more accurately.

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