a ppt on valuation

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a ppt on valuation

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of valuation is a fundamental method. Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future cash flows. Ignores the current level of the stock market (industry). Appropriate for comparing investments across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc). In the long run, fundamental is the correct way of value any asset.

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Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host of other multiples. Extremely popular with the press, CNBS, Stock brokers Used to value one stock against another. Can not compare value across different asset classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc). Can not answer the question is the stock market over valued? Can answer the question, I want to buy a tech stock, which one should I buy? Can answer the question, Which one of these overpriced IPOs is the best buy?

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You are investing for your retirement. You are planning to take a buy and hold strategy which involves picking some fairly priced stocks and holding them for several years. Which valuation approach should you use? Relative or fundamental?

You are a short term investor. You trade several times a week on your E-trade account, and rarely hold a stock for more than a month. Which valuation technique should you use? Relative or fundamental?

Relative Valuation

Prices can be standardized using a common variable such as earnings, cashflows, book value, or revenues. Earnings Multiples Price/Earning ratio (PE) and variants Value/EBIT Value/EBDITA Value/Cashflow Enterprise value/EBDITA Book Multiples Price/Book Value (of equity) PBV Revenues Price/Sales per Share (PS) Enterprise Value/Sales per Share (EVS) Industry Specific Variables (Price/kwh, Price per ton of steel, Price per click, Price per labor hour)

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Multiples

Relative valuation relies on the use of multiples and a little algebra.

House A B C D E Price $ 110,000 $ 120,000 $ 96,000 $ 99,000 $ 105,000 Sq ft 1,700 1,725 1,500 1,550 1,605

Average What is the price of a 1,650 sq ft house?

$65.51

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To use a multiple inelegantly you must: Know what are the fundamentals that determine the multiple. Know how changes in these fundamentals change the multiple. Know what the distribution of the multiple looks like. Ensure that both the denominator and numerator represent claims to the same group - OK: P/E Price equityholders, EPS equityholders - Not OK: P/EBIT Price equityholders, EBIT All claimants Ensure that firms are comparable.

PE Market price per share / Earnings per share There are a number of variants of the basic PE ratio in use. They are based on how the price and earnings are defined. Price - current price - or average price for the year Earnings - most recent financial year - trailing 12 months (Trailing PE) - forecasted eps (Forward PE)

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PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals To understand the fundamental start with the basic equity discounted cash flow model.

With the dividend discounted model

Div1 P0 re g

Dividing both sides by EPS

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PE Ratio: Understanding the Fundamentals Holding all else equal higher growth firms will have a higher PE ratio than lower growth firms. higher risk firms will have a lower PE ratio than low risk firms. Firms with lower reinvestment needs will have a higher PE ratio than firms with higher reinvestment needs. Of course, other things are difficult to hold equal since high growth firms, tend to have high risk and high reinvestment rates.

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Graph PE ratio

150 VW_PE 50 0

1975q1

100

1980q1

1985q1

1990q1 stata_qtr

1995q1

2000q1

2005q1

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A market strategist argues that stocks are over priced because the PE ratio today is too high relative to the average PE ratio across time. Do you agree? Yes No If you do not agree, what factor might explain the high PE ratio today?

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A Question You are reading an equity research report on Informix, and the analyst claims that the stock is undervalued because its PE ratio is 9.71 while the average of the sector PE ratio is 35.51. Would you agree? Yes No Why or why not?

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In an industry we identify 4 stocks which are similar to the stock we want to evaluate.

Stock A Stock B Stock C PE=14 PE=18 PE=24

Stock D

PE=21

The average PE = (14+18+24+21)/4=19.25 Our firm has EPS of $2.10 P/2.25=19.25 P=19.25*2.25=$40.425 Note do not include the stock to be valued in the average Also do not include firm with negative P/E ratios

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Value/Cashflow

PE ratios are for equityholders, while cash flow measures are the whole firm. Cash flow is from continuing operations before capital expenditure. FCF is uncommitted freely available cash flow after capital expenditure to maintain operations at the same economic level. FCFF (cash flow from assets) is free cash flow to total firm Value MVequity MVdebt FCFF FCFF In the US in 1999, the mean value was 24.

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Value/FCFF

For a firm with a constant growth rate

FCFF0 (1 g ) V0 wacc g

V0 (1 g ) FCFF0 wacc g

The cost of capital The expected growth rate

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Industry average is 20 Firm has FCFF of $2,500 Shares outstanding of 450 MV of debt = $30,000

Using Value/FCFF=20 value = FCFF*20 MV equity + MV debt = FCFF*20 MV equity = FCFF*20 MV debt Price = (FCFF*20-MV debt)/Shares Price = ($2,500*20-$30,000)/450 = 44.44

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Most analysts find FCFF to complex or messy to use in multiples. They use modified versions. After tax operating income: EBIT (1-t) Pre tax operating income or EBIT EBDITA, which is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

Value MVequity MVdebt EBDITA EBDITA

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Value/EBDITA multiple

The no-cash version

Value MVequity MVdebt cash EBDITA EBDITA

When cash and marketable securities are netted out of the value, none of the income from the cash or securities should be reflected in the denominator. The no-cash version is often called Enterprise Value.

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Enterprise Value

EV = market value of equity + market value of debt cash and marketable securities Many companies who have just conducted an IPOs have huge amount of cash a war chest EV excludes this cash from value of the firm Cash +MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity - Cash For example: Nasdaq AWRE (did IPO in 1996) Its 1996 cash was $31.1 million, Total assets = $40.1 million, Debt=0 EV=$9 million. For young firms it is common to use EV instead of Value.

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1. The multiple can be computed even for firms that are reporting net losses, since EBDITA are usually positive. 2. More appropriate than the PE ratio for high growth firms. 3. Allows for comparison across firms with different financial leverage.

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The measure of market value of equity to book value of equity.

P MV equity B BVequity

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Going back to dividend discount model,

Div1 P0 re g

Defining the return on equity (ROE)=EPS0/BV0 and realizing that div1=EPS0*payout ratio, the value of equity can be written as

If the return is based on expected earnings (next period)

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The ratio of market value of equity to the sales

Though the third most popular ration it has a fundamental problem. - the ratio is internally inconsistent.

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Using the dividend discount model, we have

Div1 P0 re g

Dividing both sides by sales per share and remembering that

Profit margin

We get

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The key determinant of price-sales ratio is profit margin. A decline in profit margin has a twofold effect

First, the reduction in profit margin reduces the price-sales ratio directly Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth and indirectly reduce price-sales ratio.

Expected growth rate = retention rate * ROE retention ratio *(Net profit/sales)*( sales/book value of equity)

retention ratio * (profit margin) * (sales/ BV of equity)

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Price is the value of equity While sales accrue to the entire firm. Enterprise to sales, however, is consistent.

To value a firm using EV/S Compute the average EV/S for comparable firms EV of subject firm = average EV/S time subjects firm projected sales Market value = EV market debt value + cash

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There are dozen of multiples There are three choices Use a simple average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples Use a weighted average of the valuations obtained using a number of different multiples (one ratio may be more important than another) Choose one of the multiples and base your valuation based on that multiple (usually the best way as you provide some insights why that multiple is important remember car industry video segment)

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