HEURISTICS AND BIASES

Why we occasionally make stupid choices.

The holiday season has come and gone, leaving you with seven extra pounds. In an attempt to lose weight, you decide to reduce the fat in your diet. Upon arriving at a party, you sit in front of a bowl of your favorite, high-fat treats (cashews, potato chips, caramel popcorn, etc..) One goes into your mouth, and soon the bowl is empty. You have consumed over 60 grams of fat.

The next day you regret your decision and wonder how you could have so easily ignored your resolution to cut fat.

The DOER self and the PLANNER Self

In our daily lives we constantly make choices between what we want to do and what we should do. In almost all of these (and many other cases) one of our two “selves” is in favor of a decision that provides immediate benefit rather than an alternative that provides greater rewards in the future.

The War Inside Us

The DOER self gives in to TRANSIENT concerns or needs, temporarily ignoring the PLANNER self.

The solution lies in the ability to identify actions that your planner self can take to control your doer self. We tend to give too much weight to proximal (situational) attributes (physical, sensory, emotional etc.) in decision making.

 The ―SHOULD‖ tends to take over when we have multiple options.WHEN MOTIVATION AND COGNITION COLLIDE We have preferences that put us in disagreement with ourselves.  The ―WANT‖ will tend to dominate when only one option is presented to us.  What we WANT TO DO and what we SHOULD DO collide.  .

Hypothetical Example   I offer to give each of you $7 to participate in a study that will take 40 minutes. but you know another class is getting $10 each to do the same 40minute study. – How many of you will participate? . – How many of you will participate? I offer to give you $8 to participate in a study that takes 40 minutes.

Group 3: Volunteers can to do either or not participate Results: Group 1: Group 2: Group 3: 72% volunteered for the $7 study 55% volunteered for the $8 study 16% volunteered for the $7 study 56% volunteered for the $8 study 28% chose not to participate .The test used three separate groups Group 1: Volunteers are offered $7 for a 40 minute study. Group 2: Volunteers are offered $8 for a 40 minute study but are told that another group is getting $10.

. allowing the ―SHOULD‖ self to reflect on the choices. In Group 3 there are more choices and people are more rational. there is only one option which is $8 but people focus on the affective (emotional) issue of fairness and so willingness to be involved drops. In Group 2.Group 1: Group 2: Group 3: 72% volunteered for the $7 study 55% volunteered for the $8 study 16% volunteered for the $7 study 56% volunteered for the $8 study 28% chose not to participate In Group 1. there is only one option and the ―WANT‖ self dominates.

tends to be short-term and ―Should‖ is longer-term.WANT versus Should  The  The ―Should‖ is not always right. ―Want‖ self may convey important information about emotions that is underweighted by the ―Should‖ self. need to recognize when our ―Want‖ self is disagreeing with our ―Should‖ self.  We  ―Want‖ .

Unrealistic Optimism – This refers to a bias in judgment that leads people to believe that their futures will be better and brighter than those of other people. B. the world.POSITIVE ILLUSIONS Most people view themselves. and their future in considerably more positive light than is objectively likely or that reality can sustain. Unrealistically Positive Views of Self – Individuals tend to perceive themselves as being better than others on a variety of desirable attributes. . A.

 ―Victory has a thousand fathers.F. .K.‖ J. They tend to take a disproportionately large share of the credit for collective successes.  D. They overestimate the extent to which their actions can guarantee a certain outcome. but defeat is an orphan. Self-serving attributions – People are biased in how they explain the causes of events. Illusion of Control – People falsely believe that they can control uncontrollable events.POSITIVE ILLUSIONS  C. and they accept too little responsibility for collective failures.

   Self-Serving Biases play a big role in assignment of blame.Self-Serving Biases  Studies of Negotiators found that: – – When successful they attributed success to internal / personal reasons. Failures were attributed to external reasons. Self-Serving Biases lead us to denigrate those more successful. . Self-Serving Biases extend to the groups to which we belong.

because they had the most inflated sense of self worth. rewards were insufficient to meet their expectations of their entitlements.Biases of Positive Illusions  In a simulation study done by Tyler and Hasti (1991) each member of an organization was assigned a value representing their true worth and a value based on their perceived worth to the organization. Since their expectations overestimated their true worth. In fact. the most valued employees emerged as the most dissatisfied in this simulation.    . creating a world in which the typical member engaged in a mild level of self-enhancement. and dissatisfaction resulted. Employees then received rewards based on their true value. The average employee had a perceived worth that exceeded their true worth.

Egocentrism makes everyone believe that it is fair for them to have more rewards than an independent advisor would judge. Our perceptions and expectations are biased in a self-serving manner. exposed to the same information. interpret it in a way that favors themselves. Assessments of what is fair are often biased by self-interests.EGOCENTRISM      Closely related to Positive Illusions. . People.

yet each side thought the opposition team played more unfairly and engaged in more aggressive and un-sportsman-like conduct. Researchers attempted to reduce this bias by paying participants to accurately predict a judge‘s ruling.   . and then had them write an essay arguing the other side‘s point of view. Football fans from Princeton & Dartmouth were asked to view a short film of a football game between the two schools. Both sides watched the same film. the percentages always add up to more then 100%. – This had no measurable effect on people‘s biases. what percent of household work they each performed.Examples of Egocentrism  When husbands and wives are asked individually.

B. airline flight to get home that night.M. Which is more upsetting?     . You find out the plane left on schedule at 8:30.Regret  Your out-of-town business meeting runs overtime and you are trying to make an 8:30 P. You find out that the plane was also delayed and is just pulling away from the gate. Your taxi gets caught in traffic and you do not get to the gate until 8:52 A. If you miss it you have to find a hotel and spend the night.

When feedback is expected on both what the decision maker did and did not do. people hold positive illusions about the quality of their decisions and their outcomes.    .Avoidance of Regret  Avoiding regret has clear effects on decision making. individuals change their behavior to avoid unfavorable feedback. In the absence of feedback. We tend to choose options that shield us from feedback on alternatives we do not choose.

Situation 2: Some of your friends go to Bermuda and some decide to go to Cancun. You have some concern that if you go to Bermuda. you will find out later from your friends that Cancun would have been a better choice.       Situation 1: Your group of friends all go to Bermuda. .Example: You could go with your friends to Cancun or to Bermuda for spring break. Consequently you may decide to spend more time and effort researching than you would have otherwise in order to insure that your choice is the best one. You don‘t worry about getting feedback about what might have happened if you went to Cancun since no one went there.

 We tend to avoid the possibility of negative feedback when making decisions.REGRET AVOIDANCE People feel greater regret for actions than for inactions. we tend to adjust our decisions in order to avoid afterthe-fact.   When feedback is inevitable. unfavorable comparisons between what we did do and did not do. .

. Scenario 2: Bob‘s parents don‘t care about seeing his grades.REGRET EXAMPLE     Bob is a freshman at TCNJ. so he doesn‘t have to worry about it. His parents are paying all of his expenses. Bob will probably decide to do more studying than he will in Scenario #2. Scenario 1: Bob‘s parents insist on seeing his grades at the end of each semester. He is having trouble balancing his need to study and his desire to party and have fun. Faced with the possibility of unfavorable feedback in Scenario #1.

Sadness makes people eager to buy things.  Disgust makes people unlikely to buy anything at all. .  When you are sad you‘re trying to change your circumstances. Fear makes people pessimistic and risk-averse in their decision making.Emotions and Decisions    Anger makes people optimistic and riskseeking in their decision making. – When you are disgusted you‘re trying to cleanse.

• People have higher expectations for beautiful people. • They are more apt to find joy simply from looking in the mirror. • Women feel that beauty is inherently important. • Voters are biased towards the more attractive candidate. and expect less from unattractive people.The Bias of Beauty • Beautiful people are happier. . • Attractive people are more likely to be hired in a recession. but for different reasons.

   One study showed that handsome economics professors earned 6% more than their less-attractive colleagues.000 on facelifts. .The Economics of Beauty   Beauty is a scarce commodity. In 2010 Americans (mostly women) spent $845. Homely quarterbacks earn 12% less than their easy-onthe-eyes rivals. Handsome men make13% more during a career than their looks-challenged peers.000.

Heuristics Rules-of-thumb for making decisions.  – – – Don‘t date someone who picks their nose.. The longest answer is probably correct.  Simplified strategies or rules which direct or judgment  Examples. Tall. handsome men make better presidents than short.. . ugly ones.

we have no control over when they are used appropriately or inappropriately.Benefits & Drawbacks Heuristics provide time-pressured managers with a simple way of dealing with a complex world.  When we use them unconsciously.  .  People frequently adopt them without being aware of using them.

The Availability Heuristic  We think of things that are easily remembered (available to consciousness)  People assess the frequency. probability. or likely cause of an event by the degree to which instances or occurrences of that event are readily ―available‖ in our memory. .

 . your older brother died in a motorcycle accident. even though Consumer Reports says that these cars have a higher-than-average maintenance cost. You refuse to ride on a motorcycle because when you were young.Examples of ―availability‖ heuristic  You buy the same make and model car that your friend always raves about.

That is when we make bad judgments. In response to this. we too easily assume that our recollections are truly representative of some larger pool of occurrences that exists outside our range of experience. However. In many cases this heuristic leads to efficient judgments.    . we have developed the availability heuristic for estimating the likelihood of events. Likely events are easier to recall than unlikely events.The Availability Heuristic    More frequent events are recalled more easily.

 The Marketing manager replies: “Other similar products introduced by our competitors did not do well in the market so we should avoid this type of product.  EG: A manager from R&D approaches the marketing manager with an idea for a new product.” . so I‘m not going near her. EG: She looks too much like my ex-girlfriend.Representativeness Heuristic  We assess the likelihood of an event‘s occurrence by the similarity of that occurrence to our stereotypes of similar occurrences.

– – May be helpful.2 million in product last year so we should sell at least that or more this year.The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic  We tend to make assessments by starting from an initial value and adjusting to yield a final decision. Don‘t use this without due consideration. or may be misleading EG: We sold $1. – .

Capturing Expertise   Can we believe what experts tell us? Are experts more believable than novices? What are the limits of learning from the experts?  .

Professor Johnson goes to Medical School    Dr. and then he studied his colleagues‘ behavior when they were interacting with patients. . Johnson spent part of a sabbatical year attending classes at the University of Minnesota School of Medicine. Paul Johnson is a cognitive psychologist at the University of Minnesota. He studied his colleagues‘ lectures. Dr.

And now the bad news… Johnson found that the material taught in lecture correlated only modestly with the clinical behaviors of the medical faculty who gave the lectures. they become increasingly unable to explain what they are doing.  The ―paradox of expertise‖: As humans become increasingly expert at performing a task.  .

– We practice until it becomes automatic.Stages of skill acquisition  Verbal: Actions are rehearsed verbally.  Autonomous: Actions are performed without conscious thought. – We are told how to drive a car.  Associative: Verbal mediation begins to disappear as ―intuition‖ takes over. . – We do it without thinking about it.

When we are forced to give an explanation of what we are doing. our thoughts often are inaccessible to us. so we provide an explanation that seems plausible.The results of “automatization”  We perform advanced tasks without even thinking about them.   . It is not socially acceptable to admit that we don‘t know what we are thinking.

there was very little correlation with what they said and what they did! However.Slovic & Lichtenstein study  Stock brokers were asked to weigh the factors that influenced their investment decisions. For novice stock brokers.   . For senior stock brokers. the methods that they articulated matched those of the novice stock brokers quite well. the methods that they articulated correlated nicely with the investment decisions that they made.

Selective Perception  We are often ―predisposed‖ to a particular view.  . and therefore only see that which supports our view. Each group differed wildly in their counting of favorable and unfavorable references that had been made to Israel. A set of televised news segments regarding the 1982 massacre of Arab civilians in Lebanese refugee camps was shown to: – – –  68 ―pro-Israeli‖ college students 27 ―pro-Arab‖ college students 49 ―neutral‖ college students  Each non-neutral group reported that the news coverage was biased in favor of the other group.

In clinical encounters (Doctors are prone to selective perceptions)  We know that physicians begin to generate diagnostic hypotheses almost immediately–often before the patient even speaks! – These are normally biased toward the doctor‘s expertise. .  Preconceptions about a patient‘s problem can prevent physicians from perceiving data that could broaden the diagnosis and problem list.  Preconceptions may also interfere with the ability to remember the relevant patient data that actually were presented.

BIASED MEMORY Subject’s memory of a film clip of an auto accident (Loftus & Palmer)  Groups of people were shown a video clip of a car accident and later asked how fast the cars were going when the cars_____ ―…smashed‖? Mean reported speed 40.3 ―…bumped‖? Mean reported speed 38.0 ―…contacted‖? Mean reported speed 31.1 ―…hit‖? Mean reported speed 34.8 ―…collided‖? Mean reported speed 39.8 (The video did not indicate how fast the cars were traveling) .

Did you see any broken glass at the scene of the accident when the cars …? Wording > ―Smashed‖ Response ―Hit‖ Control group ―YES‖ 16 7 6 ―NO‖ 34 43 44 PS: There wasn‘t any glass evident in the video clip. .

critical. Martha is likely to be a good student.Martha is envious. industrious. b. . Select the one best answer: a. and intelligent. Martha is likely to be highly emotional. stubborn. impulsive.

impulsive. .Steve is intelligent. b. Steve is likely to be a good student. stubborn. envious Select the one best answer: a. Steve is likely to be highly emotional. critical. industrious.

Martha b. Neither is better than the other. .Who is the better student? a. Steve c.

First impressions are the most important. –   Our thinking tends to be biased (anchored) by the first impression or first information we are given.HALO EFFECT  Characteristics that we consider early on remain the most salient. The general cognitive bias is called anchoring. . but second and third impressions are important too.

Biases covered so far         Availability Heuristic Representativeness Heuristic Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic Capturing Expertise Selective Perception Preconceived Expectations Biased Memories Halo Effect (First Impressions bias) .

Analysis of The Questionnaire Let‘s see how you did on your answers! .

Problem #1. Ranking the corporations

Most people pick Group A because of the availability heuristic. This group contains consumer firms which are more familiar. The correct answer is Group B. In fact, total sales for Group B was double that for group A.

Question #2 The MBA student’s major

Most people pick Chinese studies because they focus on the description of the student as ―shy and small.‖

This ignores the fact that Chinese studies majors are very scarce in comparison to Psychology majors. And it is rare a Chinese studies major seeks an MBA.
– –

It is an example of the representativeness heuristic. People tend to stereotype Chinese (and Chinese studies majors) as small and shy.

Is driving or flying riskier?

This is bias from Ease of recall based on vividness and recency.

Research has shown that when an individual judges the frequency of an event by ―the availability of its instances,” an event whose instances are more easily recalled will appear more numerous than an event of equal frequency whose instances are less easily recalled.‖
Airline Crashes are more easily recalled than auto accidents.

Ease of Recall Bias at work.

We tend to over-estimate the probability of unlikely events we have witnessed. We tend to under-estimate the probability of likely events we have never witnessed.

Are there more words starting with “r” or having “r” as the third letter?  Most people are inclined to say ―starting with ‗r‘. They are not! –  This is an example of Bias #2—Retrievability (based on memory structures) .‖ – That is because we store and search for words in our brain based on starting letters rather than third letters. Thus we can think of more words starting with ―r‖ and conclude that they are more numerous.Problem #4.

Is Marijuana use related to delinquency?   Most people tend to say yes because they can think of several delinquent marijuana users and assume a correlation. non-users. Proper analysis requires examining four groups: users. delinquents and non-delinquents) Users Non-users Non-users who are delinquent Non-users who aren‘t delinquent Delinquent Not Delinquent Users who are delinquent Users who are not delinquent .

Dichotomous Events Dichotomous Events are events with two possibilities (A user or non-user is one dichotomous event.  There are always four separate situations to be considered in assessing the association between two dichotomous events.  This is the bias of Presumed Associations  .)  The preceding example had two dichotomous events.

Married Under 25 Large Families Smaller Families Married young with large families Married young with small families Married Over 25 Married older with large families Married older with small families .Are couples who get married under the age of 25 more likely to have bigger families?  Our initial presumed associations tend to make us say ―yes‖ because they have more time to do so.

we too easily assume that our available recollections are truly representative of some larger pool of occurrences that exists outside our range of experience. In response to this.Summary of biases from the Availability Heuristic       More frequent events are recalled more easily. Likely events are easier to recall than unlikely events. However. we have developed the availability heuristic for estimating the likelihood of events. . In many cases this heuristic leads to efficient judgments. That is when we make bad judgments.

BIASES EMINATING FROM THE REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTIC .

 It is an example of Insensitivity to base rates – – – – . But there are a much larger number of people in consulting who fit Mark‘s description. i. The latter category is much greater. There are probably a large number of people in arts management who fit Mark‘s description. the number of MBA‘s taking jobs in the arts and the number of MBA‘s taking jobs in management consulting.Problem #5: The MBA Graduate  Most people assess this by analyzing the degree to which Mark is representative of their image of individuals who take jobs in each of the two areas.e. – Consequently they conclude he will take a job in the arts.

If you answered ―arts.   .Asking the right question   How the question is asked often biases the answer.‖ you probably asked yourself the question: How likely is it that a person working in the arts would fit Mark‘s description? You might have given a different answer if the question was: How likely is it that a person of Mark‘s description will choose arts management? Most surveys are biased in how they ask their questions.

  . and is thus subject to greater deviation from the mean. People who get this wrong focus on the number of days available and pick group ―A‖ because it had 10 additional days to find deviations of 60% or more.Question #6: The Blind Road Test of the Colt and Champ  You should have answered ―B‖ because it has a smaller sample size (22 rather than 66). This is Insensitivity to sample size.

Question #7: Hiring your 5th sales director.   This illustrates the bias of Misconceptions of Chance. The performance of the first four sales directors will not directly affect the performance of the fifth. The probability of getting four bad sales directors in a row is very low. .   The probability of any one being bad is independent of the others.

we could determine the correlation between time and sales.  .  With more historical data. Then we would know the degree to which 2012 sales was a predictor of 2013 sales.Problem #8: Forecasting Sales  Without more information most people simply add 10% to each department‘s 2012 sales.

. Zero correlation would mean last year‘s sales were irrelevant.The Correlation Dilemma     A perfect correlation of ―1‖ would substantiate adding 10% to each. + 1. A correlation of either zero or one is highly improbably.2 mil. / 9) = 11 mil.2 mil.2 million and 11 million. – store #1‘s forecast would be (99 mil. – In this case one could simply divide 2012 sales by the number of stores. – store #1‘s forecast would be (12 mil. the actual forecast for store #1 is somewhere between 13. Since we don‘t know what the correlation is.) = 13.

 .2 million.Regression To The Mean  The Sales Forecasting problem represents the bias of Regression to the mean. Even if you had perfect correlation of 13. you should expect it to regress toward the mean of 11 million.

000 11.000 11.500 11.500 10.550 11.000 10.000 11.000 11.000 2013 ? ? ? ? ? ? .500 2013 13.450 2013 11.100% Correlation Increase 2012 sales by 10% Zero Correlation Use 1/9th of total sales Some Correlation Somewhere between the two Store 1 2 3 4 5 6 2012 12.000 11.000 10.000 9.000 11.200 12.650 12.100 11.

C=Feminist. . F=Teller. H=Teller + Feminist There are six possibilities for these three: CFH  CHF FCH FHC HFC HCF Most people rank them C-H-F because it is the order of the degree to which they represent the short profile.   This is the Conjunction Fallacy.Problem # 9: The Philosophy Major’s Description Examine where ―C‖. both C and F must be ranked higher than H. In fact. ―H‖ fall in your ranking. ―F‖.

Bank Tellers who are Feminists Tellers F H Feminists C A basic law of probability is that a subset (H) cannot be more likely than a larger set (F or C) that completely includes the subset.A Conjunction is a combination of two or more descriptors. .

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan. . A complete suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and China. followed by a complete suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and China.Which is more likely? 1. 3. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 2.

which makes it less likely to occur than either A or C. ―A or C‖ has a higher probability than ―A and C‖ A Break Relations C Invasion Both of Taiwan B . B is a subset of A and of C.Again the conjunction fallacy. because B requires both A and C to happen.

THE ANCHORING AND ADJUSTMENT BIAS .

000 as the secretary‘s estimate. The average response of the first group was $20.000 lower than the average response of the second group.  This question was given to two different groups. but it probably was. with one group seeing the question as you have it.Problem #10: Annual Salary  Was your answer affected by the secretary‘s response? – You may not think so. and the other group seeing $80.  .

This is bias due to Insufficient anchor adjustment  We are biased by the initial anchor.  This relates to the ―Halo Affect.‖ We are biased by first impressions.  . Different starting points (anchors) yield different answers. even if it is irrelevant.

A price of $150.    . First impressions of people have greater emphasis and slow the rate at which we change our opinion of them.000 for a house seems like a better deal if it was lowered to that price than if it was raised to that price. A speed limit of 45 mph seems slower when we have been driving 65 mph than it does when we have been driving 25.Other Examples of the Insufficient Anchor Adjustment  A child who is anchored in the slow group will not do as well as an equally capable child anchored in a highachiever group.

is the incident of executive fraud more than 200 in each 1000 firms? (20%)  This group‘s answers averaged 16 firms per 1000  This group‘s answers averaged 43 firms per 1000 . is the incident of executive fraud more than 10 in each 1000 firms? (1%) Based on your experience.A Large Group of “Professional Auditors” were randomly split into two groups and asked the following… Group 1  Group 2  Based on your experience.

.Be careful of the questions you ask!  As survey takers (and married people) are well aware… How you phrase a question can often bias the answer you get.

 Experience has taught us that starting from somewhere is easier than starting from nowhere.  . Unfortunately. but give us a false sense of security and tend to anchor (restrict) our thinking. our starting points are often erroneous.Summary of biases from Anchoring & Adjustment  The need for an initial anchor weighs strongly in our decision-making processes when we try to estimate likelihood's or established values.

1 30% – Flt. You can go standby but have the following probabilities of getting on the flights: – Flt. 3 15% – Flt. 5 25% What is your probability of getting to Chicago on time? 73% . 2 25% – Flt.Problem #11 Flight to Chicago    You suddenly have to go to Chicago tomorrow. 4 20% – Flt. You call five different airlines and are told that all flights are booked.

Disjunctive Events  Conjunctive events are events that must occur in conjunction with each other. – We tend to overestimate the probability of Conjunctive events. Disjunctive events occur independently of each other.Conjunctive Events Vs. –  We tend to underestimate the probability of disjunctive events. .  The five flights to Chicago were disjunctive (independent) events.

688.000 $ 195.000 $ 1.470 96.000 .F.000 $ 63.700.000.722.203 Area of Brazil Population of S.286.Problem #12: Estimations Mobil Oil Sales IBM Assets Chrysler‘s profit US. Canadian exports 3.386.000. Firms sales US GNP.289.223.497 93.096.000 381 $ 212.078 $ 2. 1945 Taxes collected Bridge-Tunnel $ 51.000.282.300.

The Overconfidence Bias  When faced with high uncertainty we tend to be overconfident. our confidence tends to drop. When faced with more familiar areas.  .

Consider the Ramifications of the Overconfidence Bias  You are a surgeon. . – Your are 98% confident that you can win. (Overconfident of high uncertainty)  Your law firm has been sued and you can settle out of court or go to court.  Be aware of those judgments that are particularly difficult to make. The patient‘s family needs to know the likelihood of the patient surviving. If you lose in court your firm will go bankrupt. about to operate. – You respond 95%.

The can add confirming evidence to card 1. the market always rises? Card 1 Prediction Favorable Report Card 2 Prediction Unfavorable Report Card 3 Outcome Rise in the Market Card 4 Outcome Fall in the Market Card 1 serves as a direct confirming test. If it says ―Favorable‖ then the claim is disconfirmed. Card 3 looks to see what prediction preceded a rise. . but cannot disconfirm the claim. Card 2 has no relevant information since the claim does not pertain to unfavorable reports. Card 4 is critical.Problem #13 Which card(s) verify or dispute the claim that when the analyst predicts a rise in the market.

It is easy to observe the confirmation trap in your decision making.This is the Confirmation Trap   Failure to look for disconfirming evidence.    . if not more. Do you search for information that supports your decision before making the purchase? Or. do you search for reasons not to make the purchase? Disconfirming evidence is equally. important.  EG: You make a tentative decision to buy a fairly expensive item.

Some have argued that people should be rewarded based on the process and logic of their decisions. not on results. There is a natural tendency to over-estimate what we knew beforehand based on what we found out later.   .The Hindsight Bias   The ―I knew it all along‖ syndrome. Hindsight reduces our ability to learn from the past and to evaluate objectively our decisions and those of others.

use of these heuristics results in far more good than bad decisions. – We are unaware of the extent of impact they have on our decisions. – And being aware that we are using them! .OVERALL USE OF HEURISTICS    Overall. – Thus we fail to distinguish between situations in which their use is appropriate & those where they are less appropriate. The key to improved judgment lies in learning to distinguish between appropriate and inappropriate uses of heuristics. Unfortunately. most of us are unaware when we use them.

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