Decisionmaking Under Uncertainty

Vicki Arroyo Executive Director Georgetown Climate Center

One Reaction to Uncertainty: Airport Security

I know certainty freaks you guys out, but its 100 [percent]

Views of climate change impacts

Key Uncertainties in the Climate Models

Uncertain Futures

Associated Press Associated Press

Urban Heat Tool Kit

Audience
Heat adaptation methods Analysis of options

Local Planners
Green roofs Cool roofs Cool pavements Urban forestry By adaptation method By authority By type of land use By tradeoffs

Sea-Level Rise Uncertainties

Adapting to Uncertain Sea-Level Rise

High 6.6 feet

Low** 0.7 feet

State Adaptation Plans

Adaptation Planning

Elevating Interstate 10

Old Twin Span New Twin Span

21 feet higher

Michael DeMocker/Times-Picayune

Sea-Level Rise Tool Kit

Audience State and Local Planners

Coastal adaptation methods

Analysis of options

Accommodate Protect Retreat

By adaptation method By authority By type of land use By tradeoffs

Sea level rise policy approaches

Accommodate Zone Conservation Zone

Protect Zone

Adapted from image from Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/symbols)

Uncertainties in Projecting Sea-Level Rise

Most states using IPCC models that failed to account for ice sheet melt resulting in conservative estimates Shorelines are constantly in flux due to natural processes Models classify flooding by depth only Difficulty Downscaling

Risk & Uncertainty

Idealized view of scientific uncertainty

Probability

Uncertainty based on climate sensitivity

risky fat tail

Increasing Impacts Severity

Skewed uncertainty = Elevated Risk

How Scientists Deal With Uncertainty

Qualitative

Quantitative

Strategies for building resilience in the face of uncertainty

Adaptive management Resilient design Precautionary regulations Robust decision-making Insurance Redundancy

How Do Engineers Deal with Uncertainty?

Uncertainty (e.g. rapid ice sheet melt) Wave runup storm surge Base Flood Elevation LEVEE DESIGN (historic conditions) Adapted from Dessai & VanDer Slutjs 2007 Engineering margin of safety ADAPTIVE DESIGN

How Do Courts Deal with Uncertainty?

Substantive Due Process: Land Use
Regulations constitutional if they have a rational basis supported by policy rationale

Agency Decision-making
Agency decisions are valid unless arbitrary or capricious

How Courts Deal with Scientific Uncertainty

Climate science is not too uncertain to guide agency decisions Imperfect models are entitled to deference Precautionary regulation is permitted

Beyond a reasonable doubt

Clearing and convincing evidence
Substantial and credible evidence
Preponderance of the evidence
Probable cause

Level of certainty needed to regulate for climate impacts

Rational basis

Arbitrary and capricious

Designing for Sea Level Rise

Sherman Creek Waterfront Esplanade Proposal WXY Architecture and Urban Design City of New York

MoMA Rising CurrentsNew Urban Ground dlandstudio and ARO City of New York

An example of adaptive design:

Treasure Island, San Francisco

Dedicated open space

Elevated structures

Clustered high-density development

Plans for flood protection + funding

Setbacks

Adaptation Reduces Vulnerability and Increases Resilience

Landing Page Features

For more information: www.georgetownclimate.org www.adaptationclearinghouse.org