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Global Print Markets to 2016

Pira Executive Retreat, Global Print Markets, Nice, France, 6-7 October 2011 Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International

Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU membership@pira-international.com +44 (0)1372 802000

Agenda
       Global Print Market Megatrends Print Drivers End-use Sector trends Print Process trends Regional trends Outlook

The Global Print Market
Global Print Market, $ billion, constant (2010) prices & exchange rates 2006 804 2008 822 2009 777 2010 785 % change, 2009-10 1.0 2011 791 % change, 2010-11 0.8 2016 845 CAGR (%), 2011-16 1.3

Source: Pira International

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Megatrends        Demographic trends Economic trends Education Print media and advertising Communications Postal trends Environment 4 .

8 27.5 5.9 40.4 15.001 1.2 20.1 10.1 56.2 4.2 18.6 55.8 31.3 12.0 63.0 11.2 10.Changes in population profile by region.5 16.4 63.9 5.4 59.6 9.2 19.2 61.1 10.374 786 792 483 59 2050 Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations) 5 .3 9.8 6.4 52.3 59.1 30.321 1.3 47.7 54.876 4.2 61.0 16.2 5.712 836 4.5 19.2 9.9 18.709 1. excluding least developed countries Less developed regions.1 26.4 28. excluding China Africa Asia Europe Latin America & the Caribbean Northern America Oceania 26.7 >70 6.4 5.289 5.4 59.4 4.7 15.8 5.8 Total.7 14.3 59.9 2.0 59.9 12.0 26. 2010-50 2010 Geographic region 0-14 World More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed countries Less developed regions.4 60.2 >70 15.7 8.6 14.847 2.5 2.7 59.745 6.9 9.5 9.0 23.2 22.3 16.0 55.4 15. millions 9.275 1.9 3. millions 7.1 25.1 5.3 15.7 9.3 17.7 60-70 10.5 13.9 Total.7 11.0 3.6 18.5 5.214 5.434 8.9 58.2 54.8 28.8 50.4 5.9 54.5 15.3 3.027 4.3 27.7 5.0 7.530 6.6 46.3 4.4 1559 61.8 40.211 769 599 358 38 0-14 19.9 9.2 22.0 6069 5.2 15-59 55.

56 5.00 8.81 9.07 10.02 11.94 18.73 17.30 4.36 6.81 4.09 28.93 4.89 18.17 7.11 Bangladesh Pakistan Argentina US China Brazil Philippines Japan Egypt Nigeria Russia Turkey France South Korea China Indonesia US Dhaka Karachi Buenos Aires Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana Beijing Rio de Janeiro Manila Osaka-Kobe Al-Qahirah (Cairo) Lagos Moskva (Moscow) Istanbul Paris Seoul Chongqing Jakarta Chicago 5.68 15.99 8.92 8.09 37.88 11.73 13.43 9.83 7.66 12.05 2.65 25.33 20.28 10.76 10.45 7.95 4.81 7.10 4.33 2.74 9.16 10.71 13.69 15.85 9.88 12.81 Mexico US China India Ciudad de México (Mexico City) New York-Newark Shanghai Kolkata (Calcutta) 2.52 5.34 4.02 20.80 9.22 13.71 20.63 7.56 6.53 15.06 20.61 4.00 3.84 6.74 9.39 8.62 8.02 17.Country Urban agglomeration Population (millions) 1950 1975 2000 2025 Top 25 mega-cities.49 5.15 2. 1950-2025 Japan India Brazil India Tokyo Delhi São Paulo Mumbai (Bombay) 11.08 34.02 12.81 10.45 15.00 9.65 14.51 10.96 11.57 21.85 11.10 16.17 10.88 5.85 13.74 8.86 26.23 10.37 13.11 10.92 11.94 6 .64 20.27 2.61 7.

Versioning. totally variable printing. personalisation and fully variable data Web-to-print systems Technology development Digital print 7 .Global Print Drivers         Reduction in run length / shorter lead times Cost reduction pressure Metrics Full colour.

End-use Sectors Source: Pira International 8 .

End-use Sectors – market share Source: Pira International 9 .

Brand owners want innovative packaging and better graphics to gain competitive edge and enhance shelf appeal 10 .

Flexible packaging  Gravure and flexo dominate  Some offset and screen – Digital is small. fast growing  Many converters. brand owners and retailers do not understand the capabilities of digital  As digital productivity improves. economic break-even points are at higher run lengths  Digitally printed flexibles: $1bn by 2015 11 .

Books is a low growth area outside India and a handful of other less well developed markets. and under threat from digital readers 12 .

13 . Digitization and copyright Electronic media Marketing innovations Long Tail business model Changes in trade patterns are impacting upon book production in Europe.Book industry trends       E-book challenges for publisher.  Print and book manufacturing technology is developing.

Opportunity for on-demand printing (and flexibility and personalisation capability) in magazine production 14 .

Magazine trends Magazine advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe. 2003-2012 (% share by value) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % share by value Source: Pira International Ltd from World Magazine Trends 15 .

slumping ad sales.Newspapers face soaring newsprint prices. loss of much classified advertising and drops in circulation 16 .

2003-2012 (% share by value) 35 30 % share by value 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Pira International Ltd from World Newspaper Trends 17 .Newspaper trends Newspaper advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe.

Average run lengths for many types of promotional print have fallen as advertisers better target potential customers 18 .

Transpromo  Transpromo is growing strongly  Targeted messages in transactional documents increase response rates and improve customer retention  Balance of cost reduction and trying to boost revenue 19 .

Print Processes Source: Pira International 20 .

Print Processes – market share Source: Pira International 21 .

Sheetfed trends  Still the dominant process but under pressure from digital  Increased efficiencies of new technologies helping to reduce unit prices  Large format presses are becoming important for the leading press suppliers  Steady growth in the use of UV inks and varnishes 22 .

Web offset trends  Increasing completion for a diminishing market hitting commercial heatset  Significant developments in newspaper press technology  Opportunities in hybrid web-inkjet 23 .

Flexo trends  Continuing improvements in quality  High performance direct flexo CTP such as Esko’s HDI Flexo have helped to push up the bar  Benefiting from growth in packaging 24 .

Gravure trends  High volume publication rotogravure and packaging/label printing applications  Better quality on lower grades of paper than offset  Complex and costly prepress stages to prepare cylinders 25 .

Electrophotography trends  Transition from analogue to digital  Benefits from trends for shorter runs and faster turnaround  Capability of totally variable print also helps boost demand for commercial products. are becoming established  Book printing is seeing strong growth. particularly with short run covers being transferred from offset 26 .  Relatively new sectors. such as photobooks.

Inkjet trends  Increasingly important in a range of formats over the next five to ten years  Many benefits for printers and their customers  Inkjet becoming part of an industrial decoration process 27 .

Screen trends  Declining rapidly as wide format inkjet takes over  Some growth in Asia 28 .

Geographic Regions Source: Pira International 29 .

Geographic Regions – market share Source: Pira International 30 .

North American printing industry: companies and employment. 2000–08 Source: Pira International Ltd from various sources 31 .

Outlook     Rise of digital Megatrends having negative impact in many categories New technologies and new applications Growth in emerging markets 32 .

Adam Page Business Manager. Reports and Consultancy Pira International +44 (0) 1372 802 113 adam.Thank you for listening.com .page@pira-international.

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