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CLIMATE CHANGE

:
Scale & Scope of the Challenge to
Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas
Emissions

Stephen D. Eule
Vice President for Climate and Technology
Institute for 21st Century Energy
US Chamber of Commerce

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Where We Are: Making Progress
Energy Policy Act of 2005
 About $14 billion in tax credits for energy efficiency, clean coal, nuclear, renewables, etc. over 10 years
 Loan Guarantees for new technologies that reduce GHG and air pollution - $67.5 billion available
 $2 billion in standby support coverage for regulatory delay for 6 new nuclear power plants
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
 Renewable Fuels Mandate - 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022—about 20% of projected gasoline
usage
 Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate - 35 miles per gallon by 2020
 Lighting Mandate - Phase out inefficient (e.g., incandescent) bulbs by 2014
 Appliance Mandates
 Federal Facility Requirements - Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 & new federal buildings must
be carbon-neutral by 2030
Energy Improvement & Extension Act of 2008
 $18 billion in tax credits - Extends many EPAct2005 tax credits
Farm Bill
 Significant portion of proposed $50 billion Farm Bill Conservation Programs for terrestrial sequestration
States
 RPS in over 26 states
 24 states undertaking regulation

Net U.S. GHG emissions in 2006 down 3% since 2000.
Net GHG emissions in 2008 will be lower than in 2000. 2
Projected Energy-Related CO2 Emissions over Time
Show Steady Progress in Slowing Emissions
Growth
Projected energy-related CO2 emissions have steadily decreased since 2002.The EIA AEO 2009
projection of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 is nearly 1.7 gigatons CO2 below the comparable level
in the AEO 2002. Projected cumulative emissions avoided from 2009 - 2020 total about 15 gigatons CO2.

AEO 2002

AEO 2009

Sources: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002 through 2009. 3
Changes in Net GHG Emissions1 2000-2006 from
17 Major Economies
France -6.3%
USA -3.0%
UK -2.9%
Germany -1.7%
EU-15 -0.8%
Japan -0.6%
Italy 0.1%
EU-27 0.1%
Australia 4.8%
Russia 3.9%
South Korea ** 6.4%
Mexico ** 6.8%
Brazil ** 9.2%
South Africa ** 9.4%
Indonesia ** 9.6%
India ** 9.9%
Canada 21.3%
China ** 45.1%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
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Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions and
removals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities.
** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.
Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.
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Climate Change Technology: Meeting
the Long-Term Global Challenge
To reconcile the desire for global emission reductions and to
provide the energy for continued economic growth and
development, we will have to develop cost-effective
technologies that transform the way we produce and use
energy.

CO2 Stabilization Curves Projected World Primary Energy Demand, 1990-2095:
A Reference Case Example
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Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

55
Ej/yr

37

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Sources: Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project; Climate Change Science Program. 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
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Reductions in Global Emissions Needed
to Meet Range of Possible Goals
Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to
3,700 gigatons of CO2 equivalent would be need over the course of
the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450
to 750 ppm).
Unconstrained Emissions Scenario
CO2 Emissions (GtCO2/yr)

CO2 Stabilization Scenario
Cumulative Avoided
Emissions
≈1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of
cumulative CO2 emission
reductions will be needed
to meet a range of
1st GtC Avoided stabilization scenarios
(≈750 ppm to 450 ppm).

Cumulative Emissions

0

Time
Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
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How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2?
Today’s Actions that Provide
Technology 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation
Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without
Coal-Fired Power
CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate
Plants
generating capacity
Geologic Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project
Sequestration (1.0 MtCO2/year)
Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants
Nuclear
without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)
Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3 MW projects at non-
Electricity from
regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric
Landfill Gas Projects
generation
Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg
Efficiency
(12,000 miles per year)
Install 170,000 wind turbines (1.5 MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-
Wind Energy
fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage
Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2
Solar Photovoltaics capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv.
eff’cy).
Biomass fuels from Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa
plantations (about 200 million acres)
CO2 Storage in New Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of
Forest. Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)

Gigaton = 109 Metric Tons
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2
Based on current technology and U.S. data.
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Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)
Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming
Decades: CO2 Emissions1 by Region - 2000 & 2050

About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between
now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China,
India & SE Asia.
Annex I Regions Non-Annex I Regions
CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

1
Includes Fossil and other industrial CO2.
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
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Global CO2 Emissions1—2000, 2050
Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of 2000

+106% 50.6 Gt/yr
CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

(26.0 Gt/yr)

-76%
(-38.3 Gt/yr)
24.6 Gt/yr
-5
(-12 0%
.3 G
t/yr)

12.3 Gt/yr

2000 Emissions 2050 Reference 2050 Global
Emissions Emissions at 50% of
2000 Emissions
1
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM model results).
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To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050,
Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries
Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries

2050 Reference Annex I Emissions at Annex I Emissions at Annex I Emissions at
Emissions “0” 20% 2000 Emissions 50% 2000 Emissions
CO2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

-62%
2000
(-20.1 Gt)
-71%
(-23.1 Gt)
-59%
2000
(-10.7 Gt)
-85%
-84% (-27.6 Gt)
(-15.2 Gt)
-100%
(-18.2 Gt)

2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050
Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I
Reference Reference Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions
Emissions Emissions (0 Gt) (12.3Gt) (3.0 Gt) (9.3 Gt) (7.4 Gt) (4.9 Gt)
(18.2 Gt) (32.4 Gt)

1
Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.
2
50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt.
3
Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 10
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050,
Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down
Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries
CO2, Emissions per Capita (MMTCO2 per million pop.)

2050 Reference Annex I Emissions at Annex I Emissions at Annex I Emissions at
Emissions “0” 20% 2000 Emissions 50% 2000 Emissions

2000

-59%

-84%
-62%
2000 -71%
-85%
-100%

2000 2000 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050
Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I Annex I Non-Annex I
Reference Reference Emissions/ Emissions/ Emissions/ Emissions/ Emissions/ Emissions/
Emissions/ Emissions/ Capita Capita Capita Capita Capita Capita
Capita Capita (0) (1.7) (2.1) (1.3) (5.2) (0.7)
(12.7) (4.4)

1
Measured as MMTCO2 per million people, excluding LULUCF.
2
50% of 2000 global CO2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt.
3
Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
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Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).
Percentage of Global Electricity Production from
Low- or Zero-Emissions Technologies Across
Scenarios by 2050
All three CCSP report models assume sufficient
IGSM
technological options—fossil power plants with CCS,
nuclear power, and renewable energy—to allow for
substantial reductions in global carbon emissions from
electricity production. In all of the Level 1(≈450ppm CO2)
stabilization scenarios, the electricity sector undergoes
significant decarbonization by 2050 (see circles) and is
essentially fully decarbonized by 2100.

MERGE MINICAM

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.

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Scale of Changes in Power Sector:
IEA “BLUE” Map: “50 by 50”
Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to
Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
2010 to 2050

Coal-Fired w/ CCS 35 500 MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants

Gas-Fired w/ CCS 20 500 MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants

Nuclear 32 1,000 MW Nuclear Plants

Hydropower 1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity

Biomass 100 50 MW Biomass Plants

Wind: On-Shore 14,000 4 MW Turbines

Wind: Off-Shore 3,750 4 MW Turbines

Geothermal 130 100 MW Geothermal Units

Photovoltaics 215 million m2

Concentrating Solar Power 80 250 MW CSP Plants

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
GW/year
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. 13
Scale of CO2 Storage

CO2 Storage Rate at ≈550 ppmv
0.30
25
0.25

By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr
0.20 20 may be required, ≈30 to 35x
more than today.
Gt CO2/yr

0.15
By the end of the century,
approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may
be required, over 400x more
0.10 15
Gt CO2/yr than today.
0.05

0.00 10
Today 2020

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Source: Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv)
MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H.
Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a). 0
Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of
Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Today 2020 2050 2100
Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee
on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Biological &
Environmental Research.
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Scale of Changes in Transport Sector:
IEA “BLUE” Map: “50 by 50”
Average Annual Vehicle Sales: 2010 to 2050
100
H2 Fuel Cell
Million Vehicles Per Year

80 Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicles
60
Biofuel Flex-Fuel
Vehicles
40 Gasoline & Diesel
Hybrids
20 Gasoline & Diesel
Conventional

0
Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
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Scale of Biomass Land Area
Land Use Scenario ≈550 ppmv
100%
90%

80%

70% Unmanaged By 2050, land
Ecosystems BioEnergy use required
60% for bioenergy
crops may
50% account for
approximately
40% Managed Forests 4 to 5% of
total land use;
by 2095
30% approximately
Pasture Land 20%.
20%

10% Crop Land

0%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program,
Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth. 16
A Path Forward Involves …
Progress in climate change technology to:
 create new, better, and less costly solutions
 facilitate means for change and a smooth transition
 Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy
goods and services
 Protecting intellectual property rights
 Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration
 Developing a new international framework that is
realistic, economically sustainable and
environmentally effective

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