Access for Low SES Students

Presented to Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance By John Lee, JBL Associates

What is the Problem?
• Low-income students do not have enough money to attend college • Tuition has increased faster than income • Grant assistance has not kept up • The increase in the college age population and inflation over the next decade will require significant increases in support of low-income students

Who Qualifies for College
• First estimate is for high school students who took at least algebra 2 and received a diploma (no GED or certificates of completion) • Taking college level math is a good predictor of success in college • This defined qualifying high school graduates

Number of High School Graduates Qualifying for College by SES Quartile
253,500 532,447 Low 2nd 3rd High

384,624

442,116

Number of Students Enrolled in Two- and Four-Year Colleges by SES Quartile
500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

87,241 102,212 100,912 52,432 126,952
Low 2nd SES Quartile

2-year 4-year
361,398

209,055
3rd

60,462

High

Enrolled Students as a Percent of Qualified High School Graduates by SES Quartile
2-year

100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Low 2nd
SES Quartile 23.9% 20.7% 67.9% 33.0% 47.3% 26.2% 23.1% 16.4%

4-year

3rd

High

What Does This Mean?
• 45% of the qualified students from the lowest SES quartile enrolled in college • 84% of the qualified students from the highest quartile enrolled in college • Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most of the difference • 140,606 qualified low SES students did not go to college and 193,038 did not go to a 4year college

Tougher Academic Criteria
• Represents characteristics of 4-year college students • Rank in high school 54% • Academic GPA 2.7 • Combined SAT/ACT 820/19 • NELS math and reading 56%

Distribution of H.S. Students Who Met Criteria to Enroll in a 4-Year College

161,195

503,846 277,364

Low Q 2Q 3Q High Q

356,411

Percent of High School Graduates That Were at Least Minimally Qualified to Attend 4-Year College by SES Quartile
100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 17.1% 0.0% Low Q 22.0% 2 nd Q 18.6% 3rd Q 13.3% High Q 56.3% 43.0% 33.3% 4 year 2 year

73.6%

SES Quartile

What Does This Mean?
• 161,195 low SES students qualify using these criteria and 81,150 attended college, this is half of those eligible • 87% of the highest SES students enrolled in college • Compared with the less rigorous criteria, a greater percentage enrolled in a 4-year college

Projections to 2010
• 2.82 million students finished high school in 2000 • 3.115 are expected to finish in 2010 • Increase of 295,000 new graduates or 10% over the decade • Peak comes in 2008 and starts to decline • NCES projects 20% increase in college enrollment by 2010

Average Amount of Aid Awarded to Dependent Undergraduates by Expected Family Contribution, 1999-2000
35000

30000

25000 Dollar Amount

20000

loans other grant pell amount

15000

efc

10000

5000

0 0 1-999 1000-2499 2500-4999 5000-7499 7500-9999 10,00014999 15,000 or more

EFC Category
Source: US Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1999-2000

Change in Enrollment in Two- and Four-Year Colleges by SES Quartile From 2000 to 2010
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 8,796 Low 7,627 18,468 2nd SES Quartile 3rd High 30,412 14,680 52,573 14,869 2-year 4-year 12,691

Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (4-Year)
2000-01 2010-11 $8.516B 2,212,377 $3,849 Difference $3.735B 174,599 $1,503

Pell Dollars # of Recipients Average Grant

$4.781B 2,037,778 $2,346

Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (2-Year)
2000-01 2010-11 $4.801B Difference $1.964B

Pell Dollars $2.837B
1,415,014 # of Recipients

1,536,254 $3,125

121,240 $1,120

Average Grant

$2,005

Projected Pell Shortfall by 2010
(4 and 2-year only)
2010-11 Needed Pell $ to Maintain Current Level Pell $ Available in 2010 at 4% Increase Pell Shortfall in 2010 $13.318B

$11.276B $2.042B

The Value of the Maximum Pell Grant as a Percentage of College Costs has Shrunk
• From a 1975 high of 78 percent of the cost of a four-year public institution to 39 percent in 1999 • From 39 percent of the cost of a fouryear private institution to 15 percent in 1999

Increasing Income Inequality
1970 Lowest fifth 5.4% Highest fifth 40.9% 1994 Lowest fifth 4.2% Highest fifth 46.9%

Payoff to College is Increasing
• In 1972 a college graduate made 1.43 times as much as a high school graduate • By 1992 the difference was 1.82

Conclusions
• Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most of the difference between SES groups • 2/3rds of the highest SES group enrolled in a 4-year college compared with one-quarter of the lowest SES students • These inequalities will not change without a significant commitment of public funds

Conclusions
• If a state increases tuition, a share should be set aside for aid to low-income students • Federal grant aid for low-income students must keep up with inflation and increases in enrollment • Student aid for low-income students must increase from present levels