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Stats Discrete Prob Distribution 2011

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Random variable A random variable is a variable to which we can associate certain probability. Discrete random variable A discrete random variable has a countable number of possible values. ~ the number of defective items in a production process ~ the number of telephone calls received in a given hour, and ~ No. of family members,. Continuous random variable A random variable that can assume an uncountable number of values is continuous. ~ time duration of call ~ age of individual ~ weight of individual

Example: What will be the probability distribution if we toss 3 coins? n1 n 2 n3 = 2 2 2 = 8 Sample points Figure 2 : Tree Diagram Sample Points H HHH H H T T H H T T T TTT T H HTT THH THT TTH T H HHT HTH

Thus, a discrete probability distribution must satisfy two conditions

1. 0 P( x) 1 2. for all xi

P( x) = 1

Example

Suppose the number of cars, x, that pass through a car wash between 4:00pm to 5:00pm on any sunny Friday has the following probability distribution. x P(x) 4 1/12 5 1/12 6 1/4 7 1/4 8 1/6 9 1/6

Let g(x) = 2x-1 represents the amount of money in dollars, paid to the attendant by the manager. Find the attendants expected earnings for this particular time period.

Solution

E( X ) = 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 12 12 4 4 6 6

4 + 5 + 18 + 21 + 16 + 18 82 = = = 6.83 12 12

Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution is probably the single most important discrete distribution. 1. An important characteristic of the underlying binomial random experiment is that there are only two possible outcomes. ~ toss of a coin Head or Tail ~ election candidate is favored or not ~ a product is defective or non defective ~ an employee is male or female. ~ an invoice being audited is correct or incorrect. 2. Experiment can be repeated in number of times with each outcome independent of the earlier one.

x = specific number of successes in n trials p = probability of success in one of n trials q = probability of failure in one of n trials (q = 1 - p ) P(x) = probability of getting exactly x

success among n trials

Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category being called a success.

P(x) =

n! (n - x )! x!

n-x

P(x) = nCx px

qn-x

Example At a Y-junction, two thirds of all traffic turns right and one-third turns left, on the average. If four vehicles approach this junction, what is the probability of three of these vehicles turning right.

Binomial Distribution

Example: At a Y-junction, two thirds of all traffic turns right and one-third turns left, on the average. If four vehicles approach this junction, what is the probability of three of these vehicles turning right. P= 2 3 q = 1 P = 1 3

P( X = x) = C n x . P( X = 3) = C 3 .

4

P x q n x 2 3

3

1 3

4! 2 = (4 3)!3! 3

1 3

4 3! 2 = 1 3! 3

1 3

=4

8 1 27 3

32 = 0.395 81

For other probabilities i.e. turning 1, 2, or 4 of turning right. 8 24 16 P( X = 1) = = 0.0987 P( X = 2) = = 0.296 P( X = 4) = = 0.1975 81 81 81

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