You are on page 1of 12

FORECASTING

A Statistical Analysis

.. To guess wrongly is expensive.” .“To guess is cheap….

Contents • • • • • • • • • • • Meaning Definition Importance Asset allocation Staffing levels Inventory availability Forecasting formula Factors Forecasting room availability Forecasting data Number of expected room arivals .

• • • • • Number of expected walk-in’s Number of expected room stay-overs Number of expected no show rooms No of expected room understays. Number of room checkouts. .

. Or A planning tool that helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainly of the future.Definition Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past & present data. relying mainly on data from the past and present and analysis of trends.

Importance • It provides information about the potential future events & their consequences for the firm. . • It increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. • It is used by companies to determine how to allocate their budgets for an upcoming period of time.

Definition Forecasting is a tool used for predicting future demand based on past demand information .

Ex: Pharmaceutical company .• It basically helps us/you to know approximately derive a future value having known its past and present values.

. Staffing levels: depending on the data that is extracted from forecasting hotel management can easily plan the staff for the particular period of time. Inventory availability: on above two basis we can do the inventory can made for particular time. Ex: helps for Engineering & Maintenance. Ex: No covers reserved for that day @ inventory can be conducted. Ex: planning duty roster and recruiting employees in case of more requirement.How is it useful hotel industry Asset allocation: hotel can predict from the forecast what demand may be placed on the infrastructure.

Forecasting formula Total no of rooms No of 000 (-) No of rooms stopovers (-) No of rooms reservation* %age of no shows (+) No of rooms under stay (+) No of rooms reservation (-) No of rooms overstay (-) ________________________________________ Total no of rooms available for sale .

including room arrivals.  A compression of historical periods forecasted and actual room covered and occupancy percentage.  for this daily forecasted occupancy figures. no of guests & perhaps quoted room rates. room departures.SAMPLE FORECASTING METHODS Ten day method :  Done for every 10 days.  this is carried for all major days of the hotel business. . No . no of rooms reserved.of group commitments with a listing of each group name . rooms sold & no of guests. arrival & departure dates. starting from first day of every month.

• Three day forecast is intended to guide management in fine-tuning employees schedules and adjusting room availability information. . • Mainly done for overcoming of two half week business.Three day method • Three day forecast is an updated report that reflects a more correct estimate of room availability.