Opinion Poll on UPA-II Government in Fourth Year

Presentation of Findings May, 2013

The Context
• The UPA government is completing its 4th year in the second term. • CNN-IBN is interested in conducting an opinion poll in order to understand the pulse of the urban mindset, about the current state of governance as well as Dr. Manmohan Singh‟s leadership of the coalition-based UPA government. • The Opinion Poll was conducted in 12 centers:
 Ahmedabad, Chennai, Delhi, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Bhopal and Patna

The target group for the Opinion Poll was fairly representative and comprised:
 Adult Males and Females (18 years and above)  Across SEC A/B/C

• Interviews were carried out in respondents‟ homes and in street corners • Interviews were conducted between 7th and 11th May, 2013

Sample Size
Male Female

Total

Ahmedabad
Bangalore Bhopal Chandigarh Chennai Delhi Hyderabad Jaipur Kolkata

99
102 106 100 122 109 102 108 110

100
99 98 104 102 92 98 97 104

199
201 204 204 224 201 200 205 214 Sample Size Distribution
Age (In Years)
18-25
26-35 36-45 46-60

Total Sample Size Achieved:

2466

Lucknow
Mumbai Patna

105
102 108

97
102 100

202
204 208

SEC

511
626 554 451 SEC A SEC B SEC C 757 933 776

* Figures in absolute

60 +

324

UPA-II PERFORMANCE

Are you satisfied with the Current Term of UPA Government?
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

T2B scores i.e. Completely/Somewhat Satisfied = 28%

B2B scores i.e. Completely/Somewhat Dissatisfied = 56%

12

16

16

19

37

Completely satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Completely dissatisfied

 More than half the respondents are dissatisfied with the current government‟s performance.
 The dissatisfaction is highest among Delhi and Chennai respondents  Level of dissatisfaction relatively lower in Bangalore – probably driven by Congress‟s recent election win in the state
5

Credibility of UPA-II Government
Do you think that the Dr. Manmohan Singhled UPA government has lost its credibility to govern India?
Yes, they have lost credibility 2% 31% No, despite all the negative events, they are still better than others DK/CS

Do you think that the government has lost all credibility to rule the country anymore?

Yes No

4% 28%

DK/CS

67%

68%

Base : All (2466)

Base : All (2466)

 The Prime Minister and the UPA government appears to have lost their credibility in the eyes of the public as two-third respondents agree to the statement.
 Majority of the Delhi respondents (95%) feel the same; however, some level of support to UPA-II comes from Mumbai since 50% say that „Despite all the negative events, they are still better than others to govern India‟.

6

Performance of UPA-II Government on Key Issues – Corruption
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

1 8
20
Increased

Remained the same

71

Decreased

DK/CS

Corruption Levels

 Nearly 3/4th respondents at an overall level say that the corruption levels have increased in the last one year.  More than 60% respondents in all the centres (except Chandigarh and Bhopal) say that the corruption levels have increased – perception highest in Delhi (94%)
 Majority in Chandigarh have mixed opinion i.e. the corruption has either remained the same or increased  Close to one-third respondents in Bhopal opine that the corruption levels have decreased
7

Performance of UPA-II Government on Key Issues – Price Rise
Base : All (2466)
2 5
Declined for all commodities
Figures in %

43
Remained the same for all commodities

Increased for all commodities

51
Increased for most essential commodities

Price Rise

 Majority of respondents across all centres feel that the prices of all commodities, including the essential

ones have increased significantly

8

Performance of UPA-II Government on Key Issues –

State of Economy
Base : All (2466)
1
Improved
Figures in %

64

Remained the same

Declined

22 13 State Of Economy
DK/CS

 Close to 2/3rd of respondents feel that the state of economy has worsened.  Only exceptions being Chandigarh and Bhopal, where 40% respondents say that the state of the economy has improved

9

Statement that Best Describes UPA Government
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

35

23 16 16 10

Weak and totally lacks courage to take decisions

Lacks the political maturity to govern India

Badly lacks communication skills needed to govern a modern country

Lack of good and talented leaders/ministers in the coalition

Arrogance of the government has created mistrust with the opposition

 More than 1/3rd feel that the current government is weak and lacks courage, while close to 25% think that they lack political maturity
 While nearly 50% respondents in Mumbai believe the government lacks courage and political maturity („Lacks courage to take decisions‟, „Lacks the political maturity to govern India‟), about 60% in Lucknow think that the government lacks courage as well as good leaders in coalition („Lacks courage to take decisions‟, „Lack of good and talented leaders in the coalition‟). While more than 1/3rd respondents in Bangalore state that the UPA-II lacks communication skills required to govern the country

10

Dr. Manmohan Singh–led UPA Government’s Biggest Failure
Base : All (2466)
34
Figures in %

24

12 7 7 7 4 1
Failure to control price rise Failure to control corruption Failure to improve economy & business

1

1

1
None of these

Inability to Failure to Indecisive Poor quality of Intolerance Poor foreign Failure to manage a address issues approach overall towards policy secure the coalition govt related to law & towards taking governance criticism/dissent management support of its order strong expressed in and failure to own Congress decisions the social control party media Pakistan/China

 Price rise and inflation has been stated as the biggest failure of UPA-II by 1/3rd respondents, closely followed by 1/4th respondents suggesting „Corruption‟ as the biggest failure  Close to 40% respondents in Chandigarh consider the „indecisive approach‟ of the government as their biggest failure
11

Dr. Manmohan Singh–led UPA Government’s Biggest Success
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

34

12

12 10 9 9 6 3 3 2
DK/CS

Managed to Managed keep the India‟s foreign economy stable policy effectively in difficult times

Acted decisively against corruption

Managed Successfully Able to control alliance strengthened price rise partners & laws on crimes minority govt against women successfully

Managed to Successfully None of these control Naxal launched threat schemes like effectively Direct Transfer Benefit

 Though more than one-third feel that the current UPA government does not have any major success story in its hands, about one-tenth have shown appreciation for its management of foreign policy and stabilization of the economy
 Nearly one-third respondents in Bangalore and Bhopal opine that the „Foreign policy has been managed effectively‟  While more than one-fourth respondents in Mumbai and Patna think that the „economy was kept stable in difficult times‟
12

Coal Mine Allotment Controversy
Who is responsible for the Coal mines allotment controversy and has benefited the most from it?
9%

Base : All (2466)

Should the Prime Minister be held responsible for the Coal Mines allotment controversy? 7%

28%

50%
Congress

28%

13%

BJP government in States Both, Congress and BJP DK/CS Yes No DK/CS

65%

 Half of the respondents say that “Congress” is primarily responsible for the Coal-mine allotment while about 30% feel that both, Congress and BJP are equally responsible.
 More than 40% in Bangalore, Kolkata and Chandigarh consider that Congress and BJP , both have benefited from the Coal-mine allotment.

 Majority of respondents across centres say that the PM should be held responsible for the coal mine controversy – only exceptions are Bangalore and Kolkata
13

Is PMO covering-up Scams??
Do you think that the Prime Minister’s Office is trying to hide or cover-up scams like Coal-gate or 2G etc?

Base : All (2466)

Yes
11%

25% 64%

No

DK/CS

 Close to 2/3rd respondents think that the PMO is trying to cover-up the scams.
 Respondents in Lucknow almost universally agree with this statement However, Bangalore and Chandigarh respondents think otherwise
14

Is UPA Government blackmailed by Coalition??
Is UPA Government being pressurized & blackmailed by coalition?

Base : All (2466)

Yes
12%

No
30% 58%

DK/CS

 More than half the respondents think that the UPA government is being pressurized by the coalition partners  However, respondents in Bangalore and Ahmedabad feel otherwise
15

CURRENT PRIME MINISTER

Prime Minister being described as.…
Not bold or tough in taking decisions Lacks imagination, is slow & has poor communication skills Lacks skill needed in a Prime Minister and is inconsistent Experienced, effective and determined An honest man Honest, but has failed in acting against corrupt people Not as honest as he is claimed to be Good man with a clean image but lacks governance skill DK/CS
Current Prime Minister described as:
Base : All

20

Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

13
13 12 12 12 11 6 1
Del
201

Ahm
199

Chen Bang Mum
224 201 204

Kol
214

Hyd
200

Luck
202

Pat
208

Chan
204

Bho
204

Jaip
205

Experienced, effective and determined Lacks imagination, is slow and has poor communication skills Lacks skills needed in a Prime Minister and is inconsistent Not bold or tough in taking decisions Not as honest as he is claimed to be Honest, but has failed in acting against corrupt people

6 13 13 38 9 13

1

15 15 15 31 7 3

6 21 13 24 21 4

20
6 11 16 9 10

8 10 11 16 10

12 9

5 15 14 12

22
18 10 15 3 13

21
0 0 20 20 21

29
15 6 7 7 2

2 5 15 25 5 21

29
11 18 12 15

33
21 12 2

22
15

20

 There is mixed opinion about Dr. Manmohan Singh among the respondents, though one-fifth have described

him as „Not bold or tough in taking decisions‟.

17

Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh in UPA-II
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

31 27

Bottom 2 Box (B2B) = 54
23

14

Top 2 Box (T2B) = 19
5
Outstanding Good Average Disappointing/Poor Very Disappointing/Very Poor Chan
204

Ahm
Base: All 199

Del
201

Chen
224

Bang
201

Mum
204

Kol
214

Hyd
200

Luck
202

Pat
208

Bhop
204

Jaip
205

T2B score B2B score

6 40

6 79

6 80

22 26

31 35

14 42

17 68

16 60

6 68

40 39

49 50

19 57

 More than half the respondents have rated Dr. Manmohan Singh‟s performance in the second term as “poor”.
 The PM‟s performance has been rated poor especially in Delhi and Chennai, while in Chandigarh and Bhopal more than 40% are satisfied with his performance.  In Bangalore, half of the respondents have rated PM‟s performance as “average”.
18

Recently, many scams were reported and PMO was said to be aware of these scams in different ministries. Do you believe that Dr. Manmohan Singh is an honest man?
Base : All (2466)

3%
24% 40%

Yes

No

33%

My perception about his honesty has reduced in the last year DK/CS

 For more than half the respondents, the PM is either not honest or perception about his honesty has declined in the last year.

 The change in perception has been observed for about 50% respondents in Bangalore.
 However, about 60% respondents in Mumbai and Kolkata still believe that the PM is an honest man.

19

Most Suitable Candidate in current UPA Government to be Prime Minister of India
Base : All (2466)
24
Figures in %

17 15 8 4 4 18

3

2

1

1 None from UPA Sheila Dikshit None of above

2

P. Chidambaram

Rahul Gandhi

Sushil Kumar Shinde

A.K. Antony

Dr. Manmohan Singh

 Though one-fourth of the respondents do not find anyone in UPA government suitable to the lead the country, about 1/4th respondents find “Rahul Gandhi” suitable to be the Prime Minister in the current UPA government  About 1/3rd respondents in Ahmedabad , Bangalore and Mumbai support Rahul Gandhi for the post  However, in Kolkata and Bhopal Dr. Manmohan Singh being supported by more than 1/3rd respondents
20

Sharad Pawar

Sonia Gandhi

Meira Kumar

DK/CS

Should Dr. Manmohan Singh be replaced as Prime Minister?
Base : All (2466)

Figures in %
Base : Respondents who think that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced (1509)

2% 37% 61%

39

Most Suitable to replace Dr. Manmohan Singh in Congress Party

23 13 Yes No DK/CS 7 6 3 2 2 3

 Majority of the respondents across centres say that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced as the Prime Minister in India  Those who think that Dr. Manmohan Singh should be replaced, consider Rahul Gandhi as the most suitable replacement for him
21

UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Should the Government call for early elections?
Base : All (2466)

3%

Yes, they should call for immediate elections

49%

48%

No, they should complete the full term

DK/CS

 At All India level, there is mixed response towards early elections  Majority of respondents(66%) from Delhi believe that the government should call for immediate elections whereas majority (72%) in Mumbai believe that the UPA government should complete their full term.

23

Does the UPA Government deserve another chance?
Base : All (2466)

4% 40% 56%

Yes

No

DK/CS

 At All India level, majority of respondents(56%) believe that UPA government does not deserve another chance to govern India  Majority of respondents(78%) from Chennai believe that the government does not deserve another chance whereas nearly 60% respondents in Mumbai believe that the UPA government still deserve another chance.
24

Which candidate would you like leading India as the next Prime Minister?
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

38

13

14
2 5 2 2 1 2

2

1

6

3

2

7

1

 Among given candidates, Narendra Modi gets maximum support - more than twice that of Rahul Gandhi or Dr. Manmohan Singh.  40% of younger respondents (18-25 yrs) have supported Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi - with Rahul Gandhi securing only 13% support from youth.  In centers like Bhopal and Kolkata, support for Dr. Manmohan Singh relatively higher  In Bangalore 1/3rd respondents prefer Rahul Gandhi
25

Most-Suitable Candidate in BJP for Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

60

1 Arun Jaitley

10 L K Advani Narendra Modi

1 Raman Singh

1
Shivraj Singh Chauhan

8 Sushma Swaraj

5 None of above

12 None in BJP

2 DK/CS

 More than half of the respondents consider Narendra Modi as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister from BJP; getting high support from Ahmedabad(84%) and Bhopal(79%) - no other leader in the BJP enjoys as much popularity as Narendra Modi  L.K Advani considered as second most suitable – however extent of preference significantly lower as compared to that of Narendra Modi.
26

Most-Suitable Non-Congress / Non-BJP Candidate for

Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

44

12
4 J Jayalalitha K Karunanidhi

16 3 Naveen Patnaik Mamata Banerjee

17
1 Prakash Karat Nitish Kumar None of the above 3 DK/CS

 Close to half the respondents do not find any Non-BJP/Non-Congress candidate as suitable for being the

next Prime Minister.
 Among the candidates, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar relatively more popular  Nitish Kumar getting support from more than half the respondents in Patna.

27

Most-Suitable Candidate in UPA alliance for Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

44

17 13

15 2

8
None of above DK/CS

Sharad Pawar

Mulayam Singh Yadav

Mayawati

Omar Abdullah

 Close to half the respondents believe that no one among the UPA Allies is a suitable candidate to be the

Prime Minister of India.
 Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati relatively more popular

28

Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi: Next Prime Minister of India?
Base : All (2466)
Rahul Gandhi

2% 13% 29%

Narendra Modi

Neither of them should be Prime Minister 56%

Don't Know

 Between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, majority of respondents at an overall level prefer the former
as next Prime Minister.  Narendra Modi secures maximum support of 91% from Lucknow

29

Perceptions about Narendra Modi as Future Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Can take strong decisions, clear ideas & solutions to problems Can take tough decisions, business friendly & will bring development Effective record in governance Honest and a man of personal integrity Not fair to all sections of the society Governance ability at National level not yet tested Dictatorial style of working & creates disharmony in the society DK/CS

41

Figures in %

40
34 29 19 18 17 2

About 40% respondents think that Narendra Modi „has clear idea and solutions‟ and „is business friendly and can bring development‟.

30

Perceptions about Rahul Gandhi as Future Prime Minister
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

Immature, inexperienced & hence, can't become the PM

32

No past record of governance

29

Can take tough decisions, business-friendly & will bring development

28

Honest and a man of personal integrity Can take strong decisions, has vision, clear ideas & solutions to problems

26

25

Represents youth, understands aspirations of young nation

23

DK/CS

3

 Mixed opinions about Rahul Gandhi can be perceived among the respondents.

 Close to 1/3rd respondents believe that Rahul Gandhi is „immature and inexperienced‟ to be the Prime
Minister – however around 30% also feel that he can take tough decisions and will bring about development  Overall, level of endorsements in favour of Narendra Modi higher than that of Rahul Gandhi
31

Are young Congress leaders not able to grow because of Rahul Gandhi?
Base : All (2466)

6% 36%

58%

Yes

No

DK/CS

 More than half of the respondents do not consider Rahul Gandhi as hindrance to the growth of young Congress leaders

32

Most Appealing Gandhi Sibling
Base : All (2466)

Rahul Gandhi 25% Priyanka Gandhi

53% 12%

Varun Gandhi

No Gandhi sibling appeals to me 10%

 Rahul Gandhi is chosen to be the “Most Appealing Gandhi Sibling” by more than half of the respondents  A quarter of the respondents do not find any of the Gandhi siblings appealing

33

OTHER ISSUES

Voting Criteria for Electing a Party
Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

Who promises to resolve local level issues

28 27 21 17 3 2 1

Prime Ministerial candidate of a party

Qualities of local Member of Parliament candidate

Personal preference for a particular party

On the basis of caste

On the basis of religion

DK/CS

 The main decision for voting for a party will be based on „people who promise to resolve local level issues‟

and „Prime Ministerial candidate for the party‟.
 Delhi and Jaipur respondents give a higher preference to people who promises to resolve local issues; whereas respondents in Chandigarh and Bhopal take their voting decision on the basis of the Prime Ministerial Candidate.
35

Biggest Concern for People in Urban India
Base : All (2466)
Limited access to affordable and quality education Lack of affordable housing

1 1 3 4 4 8 26 53

Figures in %

High cost of living
Decline in quality of life in urban cities Decline in quality of infrastructure Lack of safety and security Rampant Corruption Rising Prices and Inflation

 The main concern for Urban India is Rising Prices and inflation – followed by rampant corruption

36

Views about Political Leaders in India
Base : All (2466)
Experience and maturity of a leader are most critical

33

Figures in %

Age of leader is not important, it's their ability that makes a difference

21

Experienced leaders can manage India, better

20

Young leader is most suited to lead us

20

Young leaders are more talked about and are not capable enough

5

DK/CS

1

 „Experience and maturity‟ of a leader comes out to be the most critical qualities required for governing India.

37

Opinion on Age-limit of Ministers in State/Centre
47

Base : All (2466)
Figures in %

20 17 10 5 2
Not above 60 yrs Not above 65 yrs Not above 70 yrs Not above 80 yrs Age not important DK/CS

 Close to half the respondents believe that the age-limit of ministers in State/Centre should not be above 60yrs.

38

Social Media – Does it play a key role in building perceptions about political leaders?
Base : All (2466)

7% 25%

68%

Yes

No

DK/CS

 Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play a key role in building perceptions about political leaders.

39

Social Media – Will it play an important role in political campaigns for forthcoming elections?
Base : All (2466)

6%

21%

73%

Yes

No

DK/CS

 Majority of respondents believe that Social Media will play an important role in political campaigns for forthcoming elections.

40

Summary
 The public appears to be largely dissatisfied with the current term of the UPA Government
 “Price Rise” closely followed by “Corruption” considered as the biggest failures of the government

 Dissatisfaction also high with the performance of the current PM – Dr. Manmohan Singh.
  Perceived more as a person who is „Not bold or tough in taking decisions‟. Moreover, perceptions about his honesty have taken a beating, in the light of recent scams and controversies

 Majority believe that the UPA does not deserve another chance in governing India in the up-coming
elections  Among leaders across political parties, Narendra Modi enjoys the highest preference for the post of the next Prime Minister  Price rise and inflation considered to be the key concern area by voters

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