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Climate Change

Teaching Unit: Scientific Basics of Climate Change

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 1

http://www.sesolar.ch/energie.jpg

Structure of the Teaching Unit: Engineering, Innovation Climate Change Possibilities to Tackle Climate Change with Technological and Economical Means Lecture 1: Global warming, basics and measures, IPCC Lecture 2: Latest Measures, Emissions by Sectors Lecture 3: UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Lecture 4: Greenhouse gas inventory Lecture 5: Direct and indirect land use change (dLUC/iLUC) Lecture 6: Rainforest: Climate Impact and protection REDD Lecture 7: The EU Biomass regulations Lecture 8: Relevant renewable technologies Lecture 9: Geo engineering and Adaptation Strategies Lecture 10: Current Indonesian Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 2

"Engineering, Innovation Climate Change Possibilities to Tackle Climate Change with Technological and Economical Means"

Structure of Lecture 1
1.1 Scientific basics of global warming and climate change 1.2 Greenhouse gases and warming potentials 1.3 The 2 target, tipping points 1.4 IPCC, structure and reports

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1.1 Climate protection a global challenge


Indonesia/Sumatra Arctic

Africa

Austria

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1.1 Impacts of climate change

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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect Basics

http://www.co2crc.com.au/images/imagelibrary/gen_diag/greenhouseeffect_media.jpg
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 6

1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect - Radiation

On the earths surface ultraviolet radiation is converted in Infrared(heat) radiation


http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/spectrum.jpg
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1.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect


The greenhouse effect is absolutely necessary for life on Earth. The average temperature at the surface of the earth is plus 15 C, without the natural greenhouse effect, it would be minus 18 C. In the Earth's atmosphere greenhouse gases like water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane are responsible for the greenhouse effect since the origin of Earth, having a decisive influence on the climate history of the past and the present climate.
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 8 http://www.grida.no/_res/site/Image/series/vg-africa/graphics/10-threefactors.jpg

1.1.3 Planets and their Atmospheres

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1.3.3 Land areas warm more than the oceans

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 10 Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: Fig 13; Urquelle: IPCCC2001_TAR1 Fig.9.10d, p.547 (vereinfacht)

1.1.4 Summary Green House Effect

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1.1.5 Annual & global mean energy balance


www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf

Estimate of the Earths annual and global mean energy balance. Over the long term, the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and atmosphere is balanced by the Earth and atmosphere releasing the same amount of outgoing longwave radiation. About half of the incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the Earths surface. This energy is transferred to the atmosphere by warming the air in contact with the surface (thermals), by evapotranspiration and by longwave radiation that is absorbed by clouds and greenhouse gases. The atmosphere in turn radiates longwave energy back to Earth as well as out to space. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).
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1.1.5 Energy Balance Board Picture (Summary)

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1.2 Greenhouse Gases


Carbon dioxide: It is responsible for 63% of manmade global warming. One of the main sources of CO2 in the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. Methane: Methane, the next most common greenhouse gas after CO2, is responsible for 19% of global warming from human activities. One reason behind rising methane emissions is the expansion of livestock farming due to the growing consumption of meat and dairy products. Nitrous oxide: Nitrous oxide is responsible for 6% of man-made global warming. Emission sources include nitrogen fertilizers, the combustion of fossil fuels and some industrial processes, including nylon production.

Source: http://www2.cplan.org.uk/

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 14

1.2 Greenhouse Gases and warming potencial


The relevant Unit is the so-called radiative forcing in Watts per square meter (W/m2). The unit indicates how much the radiation household is changing by a specific gas. The current anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a disturbance of the radiation household of 2.7 Watt/m (with an uncertainty of +/-15%). 60% goes to the account of CO2, 40% are caused by other gases.

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1.2.1 Radiation transmitted by the Atmosphere


The figure shows the major absorbing (and scattering, other than aerosols) constituents of the atmosphere for shortwave and longwave wavelengths and their impact on atmospheric transmission. Obviously the atmospheric transmission depends on the concentrations of these constituents, but the figures given might be taken as typical. In the Ultraviolet, Ozone is primarily responsible for solar radiation absorption. At visible wavelengths, the main factors are Rayleigh scattering and aerosols. At thermal wavelengths, water vapour and CO2 are the most important constituents. Clouds also affect atmospheric transmission. Low, thick cloud primarily reflect shortwave radiation, whereas high thin clouds allow most shortwave radiation through but absorb longwave radiation. Aerosols have a range of complicated effects on radiation. Whilst many aerosols such as sulfates and nitrates reflect most shortwave radiation, black carbon absorbs most of it. Another important role of aerosols is to act as cloud condensation nuclei which enable water vapour in the atmosphere to condense and coalesce. Interesting biogenic sources include volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other materials emitted from forests (Spracklen et al., 2008) and volatile sulphur compounds emitted both by terrestrial and marine biota. http://www2.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~plewis/geogg124/carbonCycle.html

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1.2.2 Cooling Factors in Climate System

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1.2.3 Albedo
The albedo of an object is a measure of how strongly it reflects light from light sources such as the Sun. It is therefore a more specific form of the term reflectivity. Albedo is defined as the ratio of total-reflected to incident electromagnetic radiation. It is a unitless measure indicative of a surface's or body's diffuse reflectivity. The word is derived from Latin albedo "whiteness", in turn from albus "white", and was introduced into optics by Johann Heinrich Lambert in his 1760 work Photometria. The range of possible values is from 0 (dark) to 1 (bright).
Fresh asphalt Worn asphalt Conifer forest (Summer) Deciduous trees Bare soil Green grass Desert sand New concrete Ocean Ice Fresh snow Clouds 0.04 0.12 0.08 to 0.15 0.15 to 0.18 0.17 0.25 0.40 0.55 0.50.7 0.800.90 0.1 - 0,8

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1.2.4 Integrated RF over two time horizons


Climate or radiative forcing is a way to measure how substances such as greenhouse gases affect the amount of energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere. An increase in radiative forcing leads to warming while a decrease in forcing produces cooling.
Figure Integrated RF of year 2000 emissions over two time horizons (20 and 100 years). The figure gives an indication of the future climate impact of current emissions. The values for aerosols and aerosol precursors are essentially equal for the two time horizons. It should be noted that the RFs of short-lived gases and aerosol depend critically on both when and where they are emitted; the values given in the figure apply only to total global annual emissions. For organic carbon and Black carbon (BC), both fossil fuel (FF) and biomass burning emissions are included. The uncertainty estimates are based on the uncertainties in emission sources, lifetime and radiative efficiency estimates.
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www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle

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1.2.5 Carbon Cycle in managed ecosystems

Source: The main greenhouse gas emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction HWP=Harvested wood products).
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1.2.5 The present Carbon Cycle

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1.2.6 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Objected rise of global CO2 concentration is caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.


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1.2.6 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2


Shift in atmospheric concentration of CO2 within the last about 150 years from 280 to 380 ppm (Keeling Curve) Main cause: increasing burning of fossile carbon material like oil, coal and natural gas Other non-anthropogenic causes like overexploitation of forests (especially rain forests) and increase in animal factory farming because of growing consumption of meat Other non-anthropogenic causes like natural variations in solar activity

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/60/104260-004-139F9FCD.gif

The Keeling Curve, named after American climate scientist Charles David Keeling, tracks changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earths atmosphere at a research station on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Although these concentrations experience small seasonal fluctuations, the overall trend shows that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere.

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1.2.6 Global temperature change in detail


Global temperature change according to the three major compilations based on measured surface temperatures: GISS, HadCRU and NCDC. They are expressed as the temperature difference (anomaly) with respect to the 1901-2000 average as the baseline.
http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-temperature-increase-giss-hadcru-and-ncdc-compared/

GISS: Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ HadCRUT3: Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ NCDC: National Climatic Data Center (US) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html
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1.2.7 CO2 Emissions from industrial prozesses

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1.2.8 Correlation between GHG Emissions and Prosperity

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1.3

Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling


The drill head (on the left) cuts away a ring of ice approx. 2 cm wide with an inner diameter of 98 mm. The ice core slides into the inner core barrel (with the spirals), while the chips move up between the inner core barrel and the outer barrel. The brass section is the pump, which pumps drill liquid with chips into the chips chamber, where the chips are retained before the drilling liquid is recycled through the hollow shaft. In reality, both the inner core barrel and the chip chamber are about 4 meters long, but they have been shortened here for clarity.

Source: http://neem.dk/about_neem/drillingicecores/
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1.3

Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/
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1.3

Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling

Source: bbc
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1.3.1 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling

19 cm long section of Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core from 1855 meters showing annual layer structure illuminated from below by a fiber optic source. Section contains 11 annual layers with summer layers (arrowed) sandwiched between darker winter layers. Image source: Wikimedia Commons. => Layer structure depends on the former temperature
Source: http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6a.html
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1.3.2 Data of the Past - Ice Core Drilling

Bubble enclosures in polar ice cores. The investigation of this gas by careful extraction and high precision analysis allows to reconstruct atmospheric trace gas concentrations over the last approximately 500,000 years.

Gas extraction from ice cores

Source: http://www.awi.de/de/forschung/fachbereiche/geowissenschaften/glaziologie/palaeoclimate/gases_in_ice_cores/
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1.3.3 Correlation of Temperature and CO2 Emission

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1.3.3 Fluctuation of Climate in the Past


Dansgaard-Oeschger events are rapid climate fluctuations. They occurred 25 times during the last glacial period. The course of a D-O event sees a rapid warming of temperature, followed by a cool period lasting a few hundred years. This cold period sees an expansion of the polar front, with ice floating further south across the North Atlantic ocean. The processes behind are still unclear. Some scientists claim that the events occur quasi-periodically with a recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated.

Rahmstorf, S., Timing of abrupt climate change: a precise clock, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 1510, 2003 Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 34

1.3.4 Northern Hemisphere reconstructed temperature change since 200 AD

Source: Copenhagen Diagnoses 2008. www.copenhagendiagnoses.com


Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 35

1.3.5 Atmospheric concentrations of LLGHGs

Figure: Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHG) over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample.
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 36 www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

1.3.6 Climate change in the Past

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/global-jan-dec-error-bar.gif

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 37

1.3.7 CO2 Concentration and Temperature Summary

Since 1850 in atmosphere concentration of methane doubled, of CO2 increased by 30 % Temperature and CO2 concentration correlate.
Source: Eckhard Rebhan (Univ. Dsseldorf)
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1.3.8 Past Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations and Future Projections

Structure of CO2

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1.4 The two-degree target some basics


Global mean temperature increases of up to 2C (relative to pre-industrial levels) are likely to allow adaptation to climate change for many human systems at globally acceptable economic, social and environmental costs. However, the ability of many natural ecosystems to adapt to rapid climate change is limited and may be exceeded before a 2C temperature increase is reached. A global mean temperature increase greater than 2C will result in increasingly costly adaptation and considerable impacts that exceed the adaptive capacity of many systems and an increasing and unacceptably high risk of large scale irreversible effects. In order to have a 50% chance of keeping the global mean temperature rise below 2C relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric GHG concentrations must stabilise below 450ppm CO2 equivalence. Stabilisation below 400 ppm will increase the probability to roughly 66% to 90%. Current atmospheric GHG concentrations and trends in GHG emissions mean that these concentration levels may be exceeded. The 2C target can still be achieved if this overshoot of concentrations is only temporary and reversed quickly. Thus, to avoid a warming in excess of 2C, global GHG emissions should peak by 2020 at the latest and then be more than halved by 2050 relative to 1990. Deep emission reductions can be achieved by employing a broad range of currently available technologies and technologies that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades.
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 40

A climate tipping point is a concept, of a point when global climate changes from one stable state to another stable state, in a similar manner to a wine glass tipping over. After the tipping point has been passed, a transition to a new state occurs. The tipping event may be irreversible, comparable to wine spilling from the glass: standing up the glass will not put the wine back. Source: Wikipedia
Figure : Tipping-points in the climate system

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http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PNAS_2008.pdf

1.4.1 Tipping-points in the Climate System

Figure : Major tipping-points in the climate system

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 42

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PNAS_2008.pdf

1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System

Policy-relevant potential future tipping elements in the climate system (PIK)

Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 43

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/lenton_etal_PNAS_2008.pdf

1.4.2 Major tipping-points in the Climate System

1.4.3 The two-degree target some basics


Projections of global mean surface temperatures for three SRES non-mitigation scenarios as presented by IPCC AR4 and the Year 2000 constant concentration experiment. Without mitigation of emissions, the 2C target (red dashed line) will be exceeded towards the middle of the century. Likely ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for the six SRES marker scenarios are shown on the right. Source: Adapted from IPCC AR4 WGI, SPM-5.
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/brochure_2c.pdf Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 44 SRES: IPC Scenarios from 2000

Exercise
Ice cores have been taken from many locations around the world, primarily in Greenland and Antarctica. One of the deepest cores ever drilled was at the Vostok station in Antarctica, which includes ice from as far back as over 600,000 years ago.
http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6b.html

Examine the plot below of Vostok ice core data. NOTE: in the plot, ppm stands for parts per million. Based on the Vostok ice core data plot above, how would you describe the relationship between temperature (red line) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (blue line)? Explain why you think this relationship exists.
Dr. Michael Weltzin | M.Eng. Environmental Engineering| Sept. 2012 | 45