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You are on page 1of 83

MONEY-TIME

RELATIONSHIPS AND

EQUIVALENCE

MONEY

• Medium of Exchange --

Means of payment for goods or services;

What sellers accept and buyers pay ;

• Store of Value --

A way to transport buying power from one time

period to another;

• Unit of Account --

A precise measurement of value or worth;

Allows for tabulating debits and credits;

CAPITAL

Wealth in the form of money or

property that can be used to

produce more wealth.

KINDS OF CAPITAL

• Equity capital is that owned by individuals who

have invested their money or property in a

business project or venture in the hope of

receiving a profit.

• Debt capital, often called borrowed capital, is

obtained from lenders (e.g., through the sale of

bonds) for investment.

Financing

Definition Instrument

Description

• Debt

financing

• Equity

financing

• Borrow

money

• Sell partial

ownership of

company;

• Bond

• Stock

• Promise to

pay

principle &

interest;

• Exchange

shares of

stock for

ownership of

company;

Financing

Definition Instrument

Description

• Debt

financing

• Equity

financing

• Borrow

money

• Sell partial

ownership of

company;

• Bond

• Stock

• Promise to

pay

principle &

interest;

• Exchange

shares of

stock for

ownership of

company;

Financing

Definition Instrument

Description

• Debt

financing

• Equity

financing

• Borrow

money

• Sell partial

ownership of

company;

• Bond

• Stock

• Promise to

pay

principle &

interest;

• Exchange

shares of

stock for

ownership of

company;

Exchange

money for

shares of

stock as

proof of

partial

ownership

INTEREST

• The fee that a borrower pays to a lender for

the use of his or her money.

INTEREST RATE

• The percentage of money being borrowed

that is paid to the lender on some time

basis.

SIMPLE INTEREST

• The total interest earned or charged is linearly

proportional to the initial amount of the loan

(principal), the interest rate and the number of

interest periods for which the principal is

committed.

• When applied, total interest “I” may be found by

• I = ( P ) ( N ) ( i ), where

– P = principal amount lent or borrowed

– N = number of interest periods ( e.g., years )

– i = interest rate per interest period

COMPOUND INTEREST

• Whenever the interest charge for any interest

period is based on the remaining principal amount

plus any accumulated interest charges up to the

beginning of that period.

Period Amount Owed Interest Amount Amount Owed

Beginning of for Period at end of

period ( @ 10% ) period

1 $1,000 $100 $1,100

2 $1,100 $110 $1,210

3 $1,210 $121 $1,331

ECONOMIC EQUIVALENCE

• Established when we are indifferent between a

future payment, or a series of future payments,

and a present sum of money .

• Considers the comparison of alternative options,

or proposals, by reducing them to an equivalent

basis, depending on:

– interest rate;

amounts of money involved;

timing of the affected monetary receipts and/or

expenditures;

manner in which the interest , or profit on invested

capital is paid and the initial capital is recovered.

ECONOMIC EQUIVALENCE FOR FOUR

REPAYMENT PLANS OF AN $8,000 LOAN

• Plan #1: $2,000 of loan principal plus 10% of BOY principal

paid at the end of year; interest paid at the end of each

year is reduced by $200 (i.e., 10% of remaining principal)

Year Amt. Owed Interest Total Tot. payment Total

B.O.Y. Accrued Principal principal payment

EOY + Interest EOY

1 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $2,000 $2,800

2 $6,000 $600 $6,600 $2,000 $2,600

3 $4,000 $400 $4,400 $2,000 $2,400

4 $2,000 $200 $2,200 $2,000 $2,200

Total interest paid ($2,000) is 10% of total dollar-years

($20,000)

ECONOMIC EQUIVALENCE FOR FOUR REPAYMENT

PLANS OF AN $8,000 LOAN

• Plan #3: $2,524 paid at the end of each year; interest paid

at the end of each year is 10% of amount owed at the

beginning of the year.

Year Amt. Owed Interest Total Tot. payment Total

B.O.Y. Accrued Principal principal payment

EOY + Interest EOY

1 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $1,724 2,524

2 $6,276 $628 $6,904 $1,896 $2,524

3 $4,380 $438 $4,818 $2,086 $2,524

4 $2,294 $230 $2,524 $2,294 $2,524

Total interest paid ($2,096) is 10% of total dollar-years

($20,950)

• PLan #2: $0 of loan principal paid until end of fourth year;

$800 interest paid at the end of each year

Year Amt. Owed Interest Total Tot. payment Total

B.O.Y. Accrued Principal principal payment

EOY + Interest EOY

1 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $0 $800

2 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $0 $800

3 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $0 $800

4 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $8,000 $8,800

Total interest paid ($3,200) is 10% of total dollar-years

($32,000)

ECONOMIC EQUIVALENCE FOR FOUR

REPAYMENT PLANS OF AN $8,000 LOAN

ECONOMIC EQUIVALENCE FOR FOUR REPAYMENT

PLANS OF AN $8,000 LOAN

• Plan #4: No interest and no principal paid for first three

years. At the end of the fourth year, the original principal

plus accumulated (compounded) interest is paid.

Year Amount Owed Interest Accrued Total Principal Total end

at beginning for Year Money Payment of Year

of Year owed at Payment (

BOY ) end

of Year

1 $8,000 $800 $8,800 $0 $0

2 $8,800 $880 $9,680 $0 $0

3 $9,680 $968 $10,648 $0 $0

4 $10,648 $1,065 $11,713 $8,000 $11,713

Total interest paid ($3,713) is 10% of total dollar-years

($37,128)

Notation

• i = interest rate (per time period)

• N = # of time periods

• P = money at present

• F = money in future

– After n time periods

– Equivalent to P now, at interest rate i

• A = payment at end of each time period

– E.g., annual

Assumptions

• Assume all cash flow occurs at the end of each time

period

– For example, all year 1 payments are due on December 31

of year 1

• The present is the end of period 0

1

8

Cash flows

• Cash flows describe income and outflow of

money over time

• Disbursements =outflows “-”

• Receipts =inflows “+”

• Beginning of first year is traditionally defined

as “Time 0”

1

9

Equivalence

• Translating cashflows over time into common

units

• Present values of future payments

• Future value of present payments

• Present value of continuous uniform

payments

• Continuous payments equivalent to present

payment

2

0

Single Payment Compound Interest

• P= (P)resent sum of money

• i= (i)nterest per time period (usually years)

• MARR=Minimal Acceptable Rate of Return

• n= (n)umber of time periods (usually years)

• F= (F)uture sum of money that is equivalent to

P given an interest rate i for n periods

• F=P(1+i)

n

P=F(1+i)

-n

• F=P(F/P,i,n) P=F(P/F,i,n)

Overview

• Converting from P to F, and from F to P

• Converting from A to P, and from P to A

• Converting from F to A, and from A to F

• (No gradient methods!)

• Sensitivity analysis

Present to Future,

and Future to Present

Converting from Present to

Future

• To find F given P:

P

0

F

n

n

………….

Compound forward in time

Derive by Recursion

• Invest an amount P at rate i:

– Amount at time 1 = P (1+i)

– Amount at time 2 = P (1+i)

2

– Amount at time n = P (1+i)

N

• So we know that F = P(1+i)

N

– (F/P, i%, n) = (1+i)

N

– Single payment compound amount factor

F

n

= P (1+i)

N

F

n

= P (F/P, i%, N)

Example—Present to Future

• Invest P=$1,000, n=3, i=10%

• What is the future value, F?

0 1 2 3

P = $1,000

F = ??

i = 10%/year

F

3

= $1,000 (F/P, 10%, 3) = $1,000 (1.10)

3

= $1,000 (1.3310) = $1,331.00

EX2: If $1000 is borrowed at 10% per year

simple interest, the total amount due at the

end of five years is nearest to:

Interest = Pin = (1000) (0.10) (5) = $500

Total amount due = _____________

EX3: The amount of money five years ago that is

equivalent to $1000 now at 10% per year

compound interest is nearest to:$1,611

1. What is the future value in 10 years of

$1,500 payments received at the end of each

year for the next 10 years? Assume an

interest rate of 8%.

Converting from Future to

Present

• To find P given F:

– Discount back from the future

P

F

n

n

………….

Bring a single sum in future

back to the “present”

Illustration of Discounting

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 2 4 6 8

1

0

1

2

1

4

1

6

1

8

2

0

Time

P

r

e

s

e

n

t

V

a

l

u

e

0

0.01

0.05

0.1

0.2

0.3

Converting from Future to Present

• Amount F at time n:

– Amount at time N-1 = F/(1+i)

– Amount at time N-2 = F/(1+i)

2

– Amount at time 0 = F/(1+i)

N

• So we know that P = F/(1+i)

N

– (P/F, i%, N) = 1/(1+i)

N

– Single payment present worth factor

Example—Future to Present

• Assume we want F = $100,000 in 9 years.

• How much do we need to invest now, if the interest rate i

= 15%?

0 1 2 3 8 9

…………

F

9

= $100,000

P= ??

i = 15%/yr

P = $100,000 (P/F, 15%, 9) = $100,000 [1/(1.15)

9

]

= $100,000 (0.1111) = $11,110 at time t = 0

1. You wish to deposit a certain quantity of

money now so that you will have $500 at the

end of 5 years. Assume an interest of 6%.

The amount you need to deposit now is

approximately..

• Expenses for water treatment at a state park

are expected to be $60,000 now, $25,000 in

year one, and $10,000 per year thereafter

forever. At an interest rate of 8% per year, the

capitalized cost of the treatment is nearest to:

• P = 60,000 + 25,000(P/F, 8%, 1) +

10,000/0.08(P/F, 8%, 1)

= 60,000 + 25,000(0.9259) + 125,000(0.9259)

= $198,885

Annual to Present,

and Present to Annual

Converting from Annual to

Present

• Fixed annuity—constant cash flow

$A per period

P = ??

0

…………..

n 1 2 3 .. .. n-1

Converting from Annual to

Present

• We want an expression for the present

worth P of a stream of equal, end-of-period

cash flows A

0 1 2 3 n-1 n

A is given

P = ??

Converting from Annual to

Present

• Write a present-worth expression for each year

individually, and add them

1 2 1

11 1 1

..

(1)(1) (1)(1)

n n

PA

i i i i

÷

(

= +++ +

(

++ + +

¸ ¸

The term inside the brackets is a geometric progression.

This sum has a closed-form expression!

Converting from Annual to

Present

• Write a present-worth expression for each

year individually, and add them

1 2 1

11 1 1

..

(1)(1) (1)(1)

n n

PA

i i i i

÷

(

= +++ +

(

++ + +

¸ ¸

(1) 1

0

(1)

n

n

i

PA fori

i i

(

+÷

= =

(

+

¸ ¸

Converting from Annual to

Present

• This expression will convert an annual cash flow

to an equivalent present worth amount:

– (One period before the first annual cash flow)

(1) 1

0

(1)

n

n

i

PA fori

i i

(

+÷

= =

(

+

¸ ¸

The term in the brackets is (P/A, i%, n)

Uniform series present worth factor

Converting from Present to Annual

• This is how mortgages and car loans work:

– The bank gives you an amount P today

– You pay equal amounts A until you have paid the loan plus

interest

– In the first year, you pay mainly interest, and little of the

principal

– In the last year, you pay mainly the principal, and little

interest (since little of your original loan amount P is still

owed)

Converting from Present to

Annual

• Given the P/A relationship:

(1) 1

0

(1)

n

n

i

PA fori

i i

(

+÷

= =

(

+

¸ ¸

(1 )

(1 ) 1

n

n

i i

AP

i

(

+

=

(

+ ÷

¸ ¸

We can just solve for A in terms of P, yielding:

Remember: The present is

always one period before

the first annual amount!

The term in the brackets is (A/P, i%, n)

Capital recovery factor

Converting from Present to Annual

• How is it possible to calculate a constant amount to repay, and

have the total be exactly equivalent to P?

– It is sort of like magic!

• The calculations would be easier if you paid an equal fraction

of the principal P every year, plus whatever interest is owed

on the unpaid portion of the principal:

– But in that case almost nobody could afford to get a mortgage,

because the payments would be very high in the first few years!

EX1: A small manufacturing company is considering

purchasing a maintenance contract for its air

conditioning systems. Since all of its systems are new,

the company plans to begin the contract in year four

and continue through year ten. The cost of the

contract is $3,200 per year and the company's

minimum attractive rate of return is 12% per year.

• P = 3200(P/A, 12%, 7)(P/F, 12%, 3)

= 3200(4.5638)(0.7118)

= $10,395.24

• Ten annual deposits of $1,125 each are placed in a

savings account yielding 5% interest. Approximately

how much money has accumulated in the account

immediately following the tenth deposit?

• The correct answer was: c. $14,150.

• An individual wants to withdraw $15,000 from her

savings account at the end of every year for 6 years

starting at the end of this year. It is the beginning of

the year now. Approximately how much should be

deposited now to provide for these six withdrawals?

Assume an interest rate of 6%.

• The correct answer was: b. $73,755.

Future to Annual,

and Annual to Future

Converting from Future to

Annual

• Find the annual cash flow that is equivalent to a

future amount F

0

$A per period??

$F

The future amount

$F is given!

0

…………..

n 1 2 3 .. .. n-1

Converting from Future to

Annual

• Take advantage of what we know

• Recall that:

and

1

(1 )

n

P F

i

(

=

(

+

¸ ¸

(1 )

(1 ) 1

n

n

i i

AP

i

(

+

=

(

+ ÷

¸ ¸

Substitute “P” and

simplify!

Converting from Future to

Annual

• First convert future to present:

– Then convert the resulting P to annual

• Simplifying, we get:

1 (1)

(1) (1) 1

n

n n

i i

AF

i i

( ( +

=

( (

+ +÷

¸ ¸¸ ¸

(1 ) 1

n

A

i

i

F =

(

(

+ ÷

¸ ¸

The term in the brackets is (A/F, i%, n)

Sinking fund factor (from the year 1724!)

Example 1

• How much money must Carol save each year

(starting 1 year from now) at 5.5%/year:

– In order to have $6000 in 7 years?

Example 3.1

• Solution:

– The cash flow diagram fits the A/F factor (future

amount given, annual amount??)

– A= $6000 (A/F, 5.5%, 7) = 6000 (0.12096) = $725.76

per year

– The value 0.12096 can be computed (using the A/F

formula), or looked up in a table

Converting from Annual to Future

• Given

• Solve for F in terms of A:

(1 ) 1

n

i

AF

i

(

=

(

+ ÷

¸ ¸

)

=A

(1 1

F

n

i

i

(

+ ÷

(

¸ ¸

The term in the brackets is (F/A, i%, n)

Uniform series compound amount factor

Converting from Annual to Future

• Given an annual cash flow:

0

$A per period

$F

Find $F, given the $A

amounts

0

…………..

n 1 2 3 .. .. n-1

More Numerical Examples

How Fast Does Our Money Grow?

• Invest $1000 now for 64 years at 6%:

– F = P (1+i)

n

= $1000 (1.06)

64

= $41,647

• Things get big over time!

• Invest $1000 each year for 64 years at 6%:

– F = A [(1+i)

n

- 1]/i

• = $1000 [(1.06)

64

- 1]/.06 = $677,450

• This is really big!

EX3: A company plans to start a sinking fund so that it

will have money to purchase a new 18-wheeler ten

years from now. The cost of the truck is expected to

be $200,000 and the company uses an interest rate

of 10% per year. If the company makes the first

deposit three years from now, how much must each

one be in order to have the money at the end of year

ten?

• A = 200,000(A/F, 10%, 8)

= 200,000(0.08744)

= $17,488.50

• At a 10% interest rate, what uniform annual amount

should be deposited each year in order to

accumulate $1,000,000 at the time of the twentieth

annual deposit?

• The correct answer was: a. $17,500.

• If $175 is deposited in a savings account at the

beginning of each year for 15 years, and the account

earns interest at 6%, compounded annually, the

value of the account at the end of 15 years is

approximately

• The correct answer was: c. $4,318.

EX4: An expenditure for maintaining a bridge occurs in

five-year cycles. If the cost is $100,000 now and

$100,000 every five years forever, the capitalized cost

of this expenditure at 10% per year is nearest to:

• Annual worth of 100,000 every 5 years =

100,000(A/F, 10%, 5)

= 100,000 (0.1638)

= $16,380

• P = 100,000 + 16,380/0.10

= $263,800

Non-Equal, Non-Annual Payments

• Same basic ideas still work

• Assume that you plan to invest:

– $2000 in year 0

– $1500 in year 2

– $1000 in year 4

• How much will you have in year 10?

– $2000 (1+i)

10

+ $1500 (1+i)

8

+ $1000 (1+i)

6

A More Complicated Example

• How much to invest (at 5%) to get:

– $1200 in year 5

– $1200 in year 10

– $1200 in year 15

– $1200 in year 20

• Convert each future amount to present:

– According to P = F/(1+i)

n

– Invest $1200/(1.05)

5

+ $1200/(1.05)

10

+ $1200/(1.05)

15

+

$1200/(1.05)

20

= $2706

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

• So far, we have assumed that all of the numbers

and parameters are known with certainty:

• In reality, most of them will be estimates!

• We can use sensitivity analysis to assess the

impact of each input parameter on the output

variable of interest (present worth, internal rate

of return, etc.):

• Best performed using a spreadsheet!

• Vary the input parameters within ranges,

observe the change in the output variable

Sensitivity Analysis

• Perform “what-if” analysis on one or more input

parameters:

• Observe any changes in the output variable

• You can easily do this by hand in a spreadsheet

• Commercial Excel add-ins are also available:

• For example, Palisade Corporation’s TopRank

Sensitivity Analysis

• Varying one or more input parameters:

• Store the results of each change

• Plot the results as a function of input values

• If a small change in an input parameter leads to

a large change in the output:

• Then the output is “sensitive” to that input

• Either more effort should go into estimating that

parameter:

• Or you should choose a decision that is not

sensitive to that input!

Sensitivity Analysis

• If the output is not as sensitive to some input

parameters:

• Then not as much effort is required to

estimate those parameters!

• Because they do not have much impact on the

output variable of interest

Summary

Summary

• This lecture presented the fundamental time-

value-of-money relationships common to

most engineering economic analysis

calculations

• We learned how to convert:

– Present to future, and vice versa

– Annual to present, and vice versa

– Future to annual, and vice versa

• We saw that costs get big over time

• We learned about sensitivity analysis

Summary

• You must master these basic relationships in order to

use them in economic analysis and decision making:

– These relationships will be important to you, both

professionally and in your personal life!

– Make sure you have a good grasp of these concepts, so

you can use them correctly!

Practice Problems

1. The cost of a small flood control dam is expected to be

$40,000 now, $3,000 one year from now, $4,000 two years

from now and amounts increasing by $1,000 per year through

year ten, after which they will remain constant. At an interest

rate of 10% per year, the capitalized cost of the dam is nearest

to:

• For year 10 on the annual cost is $12,000. Find its capitalized

cost P/I in year 10 and use the P/F factor for its present worth.

• P

cap

= 40,000 + 3,000(P/A, 10%, 10) +1000(P/G, 10%, 10)

+(12,000/0.10)(P/F, 10%, 10)

= 40,000 + 3,000(6.1446) +1000(22.8913)

+(12,000/0.10)(0.3855)

= $127,585

2. A machine that has a five year life has a first

cost of $50,000, an operating cost of $4,000

per month and a $10,000 salvage value. At an

interest rate of 12% per year compounded

monthly, the capitalized cost of the machine is

nearest to: $498,800

• 3. An apartment complex wishes to establish a fund at the

end of 2004 that by the end of 2021, will grow to an amount

large enough to place new roofs on its 39 apartment units.

Each new roof is estimated to cost $ 2,500 in 2019, at which

the time 13 apartments will be roofed. In 2020, another 13

apartments will be roofed but the unit cost will be $ 2,625.

the last 13 apartments will be roofed in 2021 at a unit cost of

$ 2,750.

• The annual effective interest rate that can be earned on this

fund is 4%. How much money each year must be put aside

(saved) starting at the end of 2005 to pay for all 39 roofs?

• A = $ 4,490/year

• By doing annual updating of a certain

production line, a manufacturing company

can avoid spending $100,000 for a new

system ten years from now. At an interest rate

of 10% per year, the annual amount the

company could afford to spend beginning one

year from now is nearest to: $16,270

• At an interest rate of 10% per year, annual

deposits of $1,000 in years one through ten

would accumulate to how much immediately

after the last deposit?A)$6,145

• If a company wanted to make a single

investment now instead of spending $20,000

five years from now, how much would the

investment be at an interest rate of 10% per

year? P = 20,000(P/F, 10%, 5)

= 20,000(0.6209)

• If a company invests $25,000 in new packaging

equipment, by how much must it reduce its annual

costs if it expects to recover the investment in seven

years at an interest rate of 10% per year?A)$2,635

• In order to update a production process, a company

can spend money now or four years from now. If the

amount now would be $20,000, what equivalent

amount could the company spend four years from

now at an interest rate of 10% per year? $35,620

• If a small company invests its annual profits of

$150,000 in a stock fund which earns 18% per

year, the amount in the fund after ten years

will be nearest to:$2,153,000

• What is the equivalent amount in year ten of

an expenditure of $5,000 in year one, $6,000

in year two, and amounts increasing by

$1,000 per year through year ten?

• Assume the interest rate is 10% per year.

• A short-haul trucking company purchased a

used dump truck for $12,000. The company

paid $5,000 down and financed the balance at

an interest rate of 10% per year for five years.

The amount of its annual payment is nearest

to:B)$1,846

• In order to have money for their son's college

education, a young couple started a savings

plan into which they made intermittent

deposits. They started the account with a

deposit of $2,000 (in year zero) and then

added $3,000 in years two, five and six. The

amount they had in the account in year ten if

they earned interest at 12% per year was

nearest to:D)$23,647

• Payments of $1,000 in year two and $4,000 in

year five are equivalent to uniform payments

in years three through seven at an interest

rate of 10% per year nearest to:$985

• At an interest rate of 10% per year,

expenditures of $1,000 in years zero, three

and six could be replaced by a single

investment in year eight nearest to:$4964

• The number of years from now that an initial

investment of $1,000,000 would be recovered

from uniform receipts of $131,000 per year

beginning three years from now at an interest

rate of 10% per year is nearest to:24

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