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Risk and Return on Portfolio.. A complete lecture on analysis.

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CORPORATE FINANCE

Laurence Booth W. Sean Cleary Chapter 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Lecture Agenda

Learning Objectives Important Terms Measurement of Returns Measuring Risk Expected Return and Risk for Portfolios The Efficient Frontier Diversification Summary and Conclusions

Concept Review Questions

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8-3

Learning Objectives

The difference among the most important types of returns How to estimate expected returns and risk for individual securities What happens to risk and return when securities are combined in a portfolio What is meant by an efficient frontier Why diversification is so important to investors

8-4

Arithmetic mean Attainable portfolios Capital gain/loss Correlation coefficient Covariance Day trader Diversification Efficient frontier Efficient portfolios Ex ante returns Ex post returns Expected returns Geometric mean Income yield Mark to market Market risk Minimum variance frontier Minimum variance portfolio Modern portfolio theory Nave or random diversification Paper losses Portfolio Range Risk averse Standard deviation Total return Unique (or non-systematic) or diversifiable risk Variance 8-5

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Risk and return are the two most important attributes of an investment. Research has shown that the two are linked in the capital markets and that generally, higher returns can only be achieved by taking on greater risk. Risk isnt just the potential loss of return, it is the potential loss of the entire investment itself (loss of both principal and interest). Consequently, taking on additional risk in search of higher returns is a decision that should not be taking lightly.

Return %

Risk Premium

RF

Ris k

8-7

Measuring Returns

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Measuring Returns

Introduction

Ex Ante Returns Return calculations may be done before-thefact, in which case, assumptions must be made about the future Ex Post Returns Return calculations done after-the-fact, in order to analyze what rate of return was earned.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8-9

Measuring Returns

Introduction In Chapter 7 you learned that the constant growth DDM can be decomposed into the two forms of income that equity investors may receive, dividends and capital gains.

WHEREAS Fixed-income investors (bond investors for example) can expect to earn interest income as well as (depending on the movement of interest rates) either capital gains or capital losses.

8 - 10

Measuring Returns

Income Yield

Income yield is the return earned in the form of a periodic cash flow received by investors. The income yield return is calculated by the periodic cash flow divided by the purchase price.

[8-1]

Income yield =

CF1 P0

Where CF1 = the expected cash flow to be received P0 = the purchase price

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 11

Income Yield

Stocks versus Bonds

Figure 8-1 illustrates the income yields for both bonds and stock in Canada from the 1950s to 2005

The dividend yield is calculated using trailing rather than forecast earns (because next years dividends cannot be predicted in aggregate), nevertheless dividend yields have exceeded income yields on bonds. Reason risk The risk of earning bond income is much less than the risk incurred in earning dividend income.

(Remember, bond investors, as secured creditors of the first have a legally-enforceable contractual claim to interest.)

(See Figure 8 -1 on the following slide)

8 - 12

Market Income Yields

8-1 FIGURE

Insert Figure 8 - 1

8 - 13

Table 8 1 illustrates the income yield gap between stocks and bonds over recent decades The main reason that this yield gap has varied so much over time is that the return to investors is not just the income yield but also the capital gain (or loss) yield as well.

Table 8-1 Average Yield Gap

Measuring Returns

Average Yield Gap 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Overall

8 - 14

Measuring Returns

Dollar Returns

Investors in market-traded securities (bonds or stock) receive investment returns in two different form:

Income yield Capital gain (or loss) yield

$1.00 of dividends Share price rise of $2.00 To be useful, dollar returns must be converted to percentage returns as a function of the original investment. (Because a $3.00 return on a $30 investment might be good, but a $3.00 return on a $300 investment would be unsatisfactory!) CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 15

Measuring Returns

$1.00 of dividends Share price rise of $2.00 The capital gain (or loss) return component of total return is calculated: ending price minus beginning price, divided by beginning price

[8-2]

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 16

Measuring Returns

Total Percentage Return

Total return = Income yield + Capital gain (or loss) yield CF + P P = 1 1 0 P0 CF P P = 1+ 1 0 P0 P0 $1.00 $27 $25 = + = 0.04 + 0.08 = 0.12 = 12% $25 $25

[8-3]

8 - 17

Measuring Returns

Total Percentage Return General Formula

Total return = Income yield + Capital gain (or loss) yield

[8-3]

CF1 + P 1P 0 = P0 CF1 P 1P 0 = + P P 0 0

8 - 18

Ex Post Returns

Measurement of historical rates of return that have been earned on a security or a class of securities allows us to identify trends or tendencies that may be useful in predicting the future. There are two different types of ex post mean or average returns used:

Arithmetic average Geometric mean

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 19

Arithmetic Average

[8-4]

r

i =1

Where:

ri = the individual returns n = the total number of observations

Most commonly used value in statistics Sum of all returns divided by the total number of observations

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 20

Geometric Mean

[8-5]

1 n

8 - 21

Geometric Mean versus Arithmetic Average

If all returns (values) are identical the geometric mean = arithmetic average. If the return values are volatile the geometric mean < arithmetic average The greater the volatility of returns, the greater the difference between geometric mean and arithmetic average.

(Table 8 2 illustrates this principle on major asset classes 1938 2005)

8 - 22

Average Investment Returns and Standard Deviations

Table 8 - 2 Average Investment Returns and Standard Deviations, 1938-2005 Annual Arithmetic Average (%) Government of Canada treasury bills Government of Canada bonds Canadian stocks U.S. stocks

Source: Data are from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries

The greater the difference, the greater the volatility of annual returns.

8 - 23

While past returns might be interesting, investors are most concerned with future returns. Sometimes, historical average returns will not be realized in the future. Developing an independent estimate of ex ante returns usually involves use of forecasting discrete scenarios with outcomes and probabilities of occurrence.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 24

Estimating Ex Ante (Forecast) Returns

[8-6]

i =1

Where:

ER = the expected return on an investment Ri = the estimated return in scenario i Probi = the probability of state i occurring

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 25

Estimating Ex Ante (Forecast) Returns

Example: This is type of forecast data that are required to make an ex ante estimate of expected return.

Possible Returns on Stock A in that State 30% 12% -25%

8 - 26

Estimating Ex Ante (Forecast) Returns Using a Spreadsheet Approach

Example Solution: Sum the products of the probabilities and possible returns in each state of the economy.

(1) (3) (4)=(2)(1) Possible Weighted Returns on Possible Probability of Stock A in that Returns on Occurrence State the Stock 25.0% 30% 7.50% 50.0% 12% 6.00% 25.0% -25% -6.25% Expected Return on the Stock = 7.25% (2)

8 - 27

Estimating Ex Ante (Forecast) Returns Using a Formula Approach

Example Solution: Sum the products of the probabilities and possible returns in each state of the economy.

i =1

= (r1 Prob1 ) + (r2 Prob 2 ) + (r3 Prob 3 ) = (30% 0.25) + (12% 0.5) + (-25% 0.25) = 7.25%

8 - 28

Measuring Risk

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Risk

Probability of incurring harm For investors, risk is the probability of earning an inadequate return.

If investors require a 10% rate of return on a given investment, then any return less than 10% is considered harmful.

8 - 30

Risk

Illustrated

The range of total possible returns on the stock A runs from -30% to more than +40%. If the required return on the stock is 10%, then those outcomes less than 10% represent risk to the investor.

Probability

-30% -20%

-10%

0%

8 - 31

Range

The difference between the maximum and minimum values is called the range

Canadian common stocks have had a range of annual returns of 74.36 % over the 1938-2005 period Treasury bills had a range of 21.07% over the same period.

As a rough measure of risk, range tells us that common stock is more risky than treasury bills.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 32

Illustrated

The wider the range of probable outcomes the greater the risk of the investment. Outcomes that produce harm Probability

-30% -20%

-10%

0%

8 - 33

Figure 8-2 illustrates the volatility in annual returns on three different assets classes from 1938 2005. Note:

Treasury bills always yielded returns greater than 0% Long Canadian bond returns have been less than 0% in some years (when prices fall because of rising interest rates), and the range of returns has been greater than T-bills but less than stocks Common stock returns have experienced the greatest range of returns

(See Figure 8-2 on the following slide)

8 - 34

Measuring Risk

Annual Returns by Asset Class, 1938 - 2005

FIGURE 8-2

8 - 35

Standard Deviation ()

Range measures risk based on only two observations (minimum and maximum value) Standard deviation uses all observations.

Standard deviation can be calculated on forecast or possible returns as well as historical or ex post returns.

(The following two slides show the two different formula used for Standard Deviation)

8 - 36

Measuring Risk

Ex post Standard Deviation

[8-7]

Ex post =

2 ( r r ) i i =1

n 1

Where : = the standard deviation r = the average return ri = the return in year i n = the number of observations

_

8 - 37

Measuring Risk

Example Using the Ex post Standard Deviation

Problem Estimate the standard deviation of the historical returns on investment A that were: 10%, 24%, -12%, 8% and 10%. Step 1 Calculate the Historical Average Return

r

i =1

10 + 24 - 12 + 8 + 10 40 = = 8.0% 5 5

Ex post =

(r r )

i =1 i

n 1

8 - 38

Ex Post Risk

Stability of Risk Over Time

Figure 8-3 (on the next slide) demonstrates that the relative riskiness of equities and bonds has changed over time. Until the 1960s, the annual returns on common shares were about four times more variable than those on bonds. Over the past 20 years, they have only been twice as variable. Consequently, scenario-based estimates of risk (standard deviation) is required when seeking to measure risk in the future. (We cannot safely assume the future is going to be like the past!) Scenario-based estimates of risk is done through ex ante estimates and calculations. CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 39

Relative Uncertainty

Equities versus Bonds

FIGURE 8-3

8 - 40

Measuring Risk

Ex ante Standard Deviation

[8-8]

Ex ante =

2 (Prob ) ( r ER ) i i i i =1

8 - 41

Example Using the Ex ante Standard Deviation Raw Data

GIVEN INFORMATION INCLUDES: - Possible returns on the investment for different discrete states - Associated probabilities for those possible returns

8 - 42

Ex ante Standard Deviation Spreadsheet Approach

The following two slides illustrate an approach to solving for standard deviation using a spreadsheet model.

8 - 43

First Step Calculate the Expected Return

Determined by multiplying the probability times the possible return.

State of the Economy Recession Normal Economic Boom Possible Returns on Security A Weighted Possible Returns -5.5% 7.0% 8.8% 10.3%

Expected return equals the sum of the weighted possible returns. CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 44

Second Step Measure the Weighted and Squared Deviations Now multiply the square deviations by First calculate the deviation of their probability of occurrence. possible returns from the expected.

Deviation of Possible Return from Expected -32.3% 3.8% 24.8% Weighted and Squared Deviations 0.02600 0.00070 0.01531 0.0420 20.50%

Possible Returns on Probability Security A 25.0% -22.0% 50.0% 14.0% 25.0% 35.0% Expected Return =

Squared Deviations

Second, square those deviations The sum of the weighted and square deviations from the mean. The standard deviation is the square root is the variance percent (in squared terms. of thein variance percent terms). CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

8 - 45

Example Using the Ex ante Standard Deviation Formula

Possible Returns on Security A Weighted Possible Returns -5.5% 7.0% 8.8% 10.3% State of the Economy Recession Normal Economic Boom

Ex ante =

(Prob ) (r ER )

i =1 i i i

= .25(22 10.3) 2 + .5(14 10.3) 2 + .25(35 10.3) 2 = .25(32.3) 2 + .5(3.8) 2 + .25(24.8) 2 = .25(.10401) + .5(.00141) + .25(.06126) = .0420 = .205 = 20.5%

8 - 46

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Portfolios

A portfolio is a collection of different securities such as stocks and bonds, that are combined and considered a single asset The risk-return characteristics of the portfolio is demonstrably different than the characteristics of the assets that make up that portfolio, especially with regard to risk. Combining different securities into portfolios is done to achieve diversification.

8 - 48

Diversification

Diversification has two faces:

1. Diversification results in an overall reduction in portfolio risk (return volatility over time) with little sacrifice in returns, and 2. Diversification helps to immunize the portfolio from potentially catastrophic events such as the outright failure of one of the constituent investments. (If only one investment is held, and the issuing firm goes bankrupt, the entire portfolio value and returns are lost. If a portfolio is made up of many different investments, the outright failure of one is more than likely to be offset by gains on others, helping to make the portfolio immune to such events.)

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 49

Modern Portfolio Theory The Expected Return on a Portfolio is simply the weighted average of the returns of the individual assets that make up the portfolio:

[8-9]

ER p = ( wi ERi )

i =1

The portfolio weight of a particular security is the percentage of the portfolios total value that is invested in that security.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 50

Example Portfolio value = $2,000 + $5,000 = $7,000 rA = 14%, rB = 6%, wA = weight of security A = $2,000 / $7,000 = 28.6% wB = weight of security B = $5,000 / $7,000 = (1-28.6%)= 71.4%

i =1

8 - 51

In a two asset portfolio, simply by changing the weight of the constituent assets, different portfolio returns can be achieved. Because the expected return on the portfolio is a simple weighted average of the individual returns of the assets, you can achieve portfolio returns bounded by the highest and the lowest individual asset returns.

8 - 52

8 - 53

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

ERB= 10%

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

ERA=8%

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 54

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

A portfolio manager can select the relative weights of the two assets in the portfolio to get a desired return between 8% (100% invested in A) and 10% (100% invested in B)

ERB= 10%

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

ERA=8%

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 55

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

ERB= 10%

The potential returns of the portfolio are bounded by the highest and lowest returns of the individual assets that make up the portfolio.

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

ERA=8%

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 56

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

ERB= 10%

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

ERA=8%

7.50 7.00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 57

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

ERB= 10%

8.00

ERA=8%

7.50 7.00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 58

Affect on Portfolio Return of Changing Relative Weights in A and B

8 - 4 FIGURE

The expected return on the portfolio if 50% is invested in Asset A and 50% in B is 9%.

ERB= 10%

ERA=8%

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

7.50 7.00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Portfolio Weight

8 - 59

8 - 60

E(r)A= 14%, E(r)B= 6%

Expected return on Asset A = Expected return on Asset B = Weight of Asset A 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Weight of Asset B 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 14.0% 6.0% Expected Return on the Portfolio 6.0% 6.8% 7.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 10.8% 11.6% 12.4% 13.2% 14.0%

8 - 61

E(r)A= 14%, E(r)B= 6%

Range of Portfolio Returns

Expected Return on Two Asset Portfolio 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

0. 0% 10 .0 % 20 .0 % 30 .0 % 40 .0 % 50 .0 % 60 .0 % 70 .0 % 80 .0 % 90 .0 % 10 0. 0 %

8 - 62

Example of a Three Asset Portfolio

Relative Expected Weighted Weight Return Return 0.400 8.0% 0.03 0.350 15.0% 0.05 0.250 25.0% 0.06 Expected Portfolio Return = 14.70%

8 - 63

Risk in Portfolios

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Prior to the establishment of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), most people only focused upon investment returnsthey ignored risk. With MPT, investors had a tool that they could use to dramatically reduce the risk of the portfolio without a significant reduction in the expected return of the portfolio.

8 - 65

Standard Deviation of a Two-Asset Portfolio using Covariance

[8-11]

p = ( wA ) 2 ( A ) 2 + ( wB ) 2 ( B ) 2 + 2( wA )( wB )(COVA, B )

Factor to take into account comovement of returns. This factor can be negative.

8 - 66

Standard Deviation of a Two-Asset Portfolio using Correlation Coefficient

[8-15]

p = ( wA ) 2 ( A ) 2 + ( wB ) 2 ( B ) 2 + 2( wA )( wB )( A, B )( A )( B )

Factor that takes into account the degree of comovement of returns. It can have a negative value if correlation is negative.

8 - 67

The riskiness of a portfolio that is made of different risky assets is a function of three different factors:

the riskiness of the individual assets that make up the portfolio the relative weights of the assets in the portfolio the degree of comovement of returns of the assets making up the portfolio

The standard deviation of a two-asset portfolio may be measured using the Markowitz model:

p = w + w + 2 wA wB A, B A B

2 A 2 A 2 B 2 B

8 - 68

The data requirements for a three-asset portfolio grows dramatically if we are using Markowitz Portfolio selection formulae.

We need 3 (three) correlation coefficients between A and B; A and C; and B and C. a,b

B A

a,c b,c

C

2 2 2 2 2 2 p = A wA + B wB + C wC + 2wA wB A, B A B + 2 wB wC B ,C B C + 2 wA wC A,C A C

8 - 69

The data requirements for a four-asset portfolio grows dramatically if we are using Markowitz Portfolio selection formulae.

We need 6 correlation coefficients between A and B; A and C; A and D; B and C; C and D; and B and D. a,b

B A

a,c

a,d

D

b,c

b,d

C

c,d

8 - 70

Covariance

A statistical measure of the correlation of the fluctuations of the annual rates of return of different investments.

[8-12]

i =1

8 - 71

Correlation

The degree to which the returns of two stocks co-move is measured by the correlation coefficient (). The correlation coefficient () between the returns on two securities will lie in the range of +1 through - 1.

+1 is perfect positive correlation -1 is perfect negative correlation

[8-13]

AB =

COV AB A B

8 - 72

Solving for covariance given the correlation coefficient and standard deviation of the two assets:

[8-14]

COV AB = AB A B

8 - 73

Importance of Correlation

Correlation is important because it affects the degree to which diversification can be achieved using various assets. Theoretically, if two assets returns are perfectly positively correlated, it is possible to build a riskless portfolio with a return that is greater than the risk-free rate.

8 - 74

Elimination of Portfolio Risk

Returns %

If returns of A and B are perfectly negatively correlated, a two-asset portfolio made up of equal parts of Stock A and B would be riskless. There would be no variability of the portfolios returns over time.

20%

15%

5%

Time 0

No Diversification of Portfolio Risk

Returns %

If returns of A and B are perfectly positively correlated, a two-asset portfolio made up of equal parts of Stock A and B would be risky. There would be no diversification (reduction of portfolio risk).

20%

15%

Time 0

Elimination of Portfolio Risk

Returns %

If returns of A and B are perfectly negatively correlated, a two-asset portfolio made up of equal parts of Stock A and B would be riskless. There would be no variability of the portfolios returns over time.

20%

15%

5%

Time 0

Numerical Example

Weight of Asset A = Weight of Asset B = Return on Asset A 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Return on Asset B 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%

ER p = ( wi ERi ) = (.5 5%) + (.5 15% )

i =1 n

i =1

Perfectly Negatively Correlated Returns over time CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

8 - 78

Diversification Potential

The potential of an asset to diversify a portfolio is dependent upon the degree of co-movement of returns of the asset with those other assets that make up the portfolio. In a simple, two-asset case, if the returns of the two assets are perfectly negatively correlated it is possible (depending on the relative weighting) to eliminate all portfolio risk. This is demonstrated through the following series of spreadsheets, and then summarized in graph format.

8 - 79

Asset A B Expected Return 5.0% 14.0% Standard Deviation 15.0% 40.0% Correlation Coefficient 1

Perfect Positive Correlation no diversification Both portfolio returns and risk are bounded by the range set by the constituent assets when =+1

Portfolio Components Weight of A Weight of B 100.00% 0.00% 90.00% 10.00% 80.00% 20.00% 70.00% 30.00% 60.00% 40.00% 50.00% 50.00% 40.00% 60.00% 30.00% 70.00% 20.00% 80.00% 10.00% 90.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Portfolio Characteristics Expected Standard Return Deviation 5.00% 15.0% 5.90% 17.5% 6.80% 20.0% 7.70% 22.5% 8.60% 25.0% 9.50% 27.5% 10.40% 30.0% 11.30% 32.5% 12.20% 35.0% 13.10% 37.5% 14.00% 40.0%

8 - 80

Asset A B Expected Return 5.0% 14.0% Standard Deviation 15.0% 40.0% Correlation Coefficient 0.5

Portfolio Components Weight of A Weight of B 100.00% 0.00% 90.00% 10.00% 80.00% 20.00% 70.00% 30.00% 60.00% 40.00% 50.00% 50.00% 40.00% 60.00% 30.00% 70.00% 20.00% 80.00% 10.00% 90.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Portfolio Characteristics Expected Standard Return Deviation 5.00% 15.0% 5.90% 15.9% 6.80% 17.4% 7.70% 19.5% 8.60% 21.9% 9.50% 24.6% 10.40% 27.5% 11.30% 30.5% 12.20% 33.6% 13.10% 36.8% 14.00% 40.0%

When =+0.5 these portfolio combination s have lower risk expected portfolio return is unaffected.

8 - 81

Asset A B Expected Return 5.0% 14.0% Standard Deviation 15.0% 40.0% Correlation Coefficient 0

Portfolio Components Weight of A Weight of B 100.00% 0.00% 90.00% 10.00% 80.00% 20.00% 70.00% 30.00% 60.00% 40.00% 50.00% 50.00% 40.00% 60.00% 30.00% 70.00% 20.00% 80.00% 10.00% 90.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Portfolio Characteristics Expected Standard Return Deviation 5.00% 15.0% 5.90% 14.1% 6.80% 14.4% 7.70% 15.9% 8.60% 18.4% 9.50% 21.4% 10.40% 24.7% 11.30% 28.4% 12.20% 32.1% 13.10% 36.0% 14.00% 40.0%

8 - 82

Asset A B Expected Return 5.0% 14.0% Standard Deviation 15.0% 40.0% Correlation Coefficient -0.5

Portfolio Characteristics Expected Standard Return Deviation 5.00% 15.0% 5.90% 12.0% 6.80% 10.6% 7.70% 11.3% 8.60% 13.9% 9.50% 17.5% 10.40% 21.6% 11.30% 26.0% 12.20% 30.6% 13.10% 35.3% 14.00% 40.0%

Portfolio risk for more combinations is lower than the risk of either asset

8 - 83

Asset A B Expected Return 5.0% 14.0% Standard Deviation 15.0% 40.0% Correlation Coefficient -1

Portfolio Characteristics Expected Standard Return Deviation 5.00% 15.0% 5.90% 9.5% 6.80% 4.0% 7.70% 1.5% 8.60% 7.0% 9.50% 12.5% 10.40% 18.0% 11.30% 23.5% 12.20% 29.0% 13.10% 34.5% 14.00% 40.0%

8 - 84

The Effect of Correlation on Portfolio Risk: The Two-Asset Case

Expected Return

12%

AB = -0.5 AB = -1

8%

AB = 0 AB= +1

4%

Standard Deviation

8 - 85

Figure 8-7 (see the next slide) illustrates the relationship between portfolio risk () and the correlation coefficient

The slope is not linear a significant amount of diversification is possible with assets with no correlation (it is not necessary, nor is it possible to find, perfectly negatively correlated securities in the real world) With perfect negative correlation, the variability of portfolio returns is reduced to nearly zero.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 86

Impact of the Correlation Coefficient

8 - 7 FIGURE

15

10

) % ( no it a i ve D d r a dna tS sn ru t eRo il o ft r o Pf o

8 - 87

We can calculate the portfolio that removes all risk. When = -1, then

[8-15]

p = ( wA ) 2 ( A ) 2 + ( wB ) 2 ( B ) 2 + 2( wA )( wB )( A, B )( A )( B )

Becomes:

[8-16]

p = w A (1 w) B

8 - 88

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Base Data: Expected Return(%) Standard Deviation (%) Stocks T-bills Bonds 12.73383 6.151702 7.0078723 0.168 0.042 0.102

Correlation Coefficient Matrix: Stocks 1 T-bills -0.216 Bonds 0.048 Portfolio Combinations: Weights Combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Stocks 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% T-bills 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Bonds 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

-0.216 1 0.380

0.048 0.380 1

Historical averages for returns and risk for three asset Each achievable classes

Portfolio Expected Standard Variance Deviation Return 12.7 0.0283 16.8% 12.1 0.0226 15.0% 11.4 0.0177 13.3% 10.8 0.0134 11.6% 10.1 0.0097 9.9% 9.4 0.0067 8.2% 8.8 0.0044 6.6% 8.1 0.0028 5.3% 7.5 0.0018 4.2% 6.8 0.0014 3.8%

portfolio combination is Historical plotted correlation on expected return, coefficients the asset risk between () space, classes found on the following slide.

Portfolio characteristics for each combination of securities

8 - 90

Achievable Portfolios

Results Using only Three Asset Classes

Attainable Portfolio Combinations

and Efficient Set of Portfolio Combinations

14.0

Portfolio Expected Return (%)

Efficient Set

Minimum Variance Portfolio

The efficient set is that set of achievable portfolio combinations that offer the highest rate of return for a given level of risk. The solid blue line indicates the efficient set.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

8 - 91

Modern Portfolio Theory

8 - 9 FIGURE

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

10

20

30

40

50

60

This line represents the set of portfolio combinations that are achievable by varying relative weights and using two noncorrelated securities. 8 - 92

Dominance

It is assumed that investors are rational, wealth-maximizing and risk averse. If so, then some investment choices dominate others.

8 - 93

Investment Choices

Return %

10% A B

A dominates B because it offers the same return but for less risk. A dominates C because it offers a higher return but for the same risk.

5%

5%

20%

Risk

To the risk-averse wealth maximizer, the choices are clear, A dominates B, A dominates C. CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 94

Efficient Frontier

The Two-Asset Portfolio Combinations

8 - 10 FIGURE

efficient frontier and are attainable

B C

E is the minimum

variance portfolio (lowest risk combination)

C, D are

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

D

Standard Deviation (%)

attainable but are dominated by superior portfolios that line on the line above E

8 - 95

Efficient Frontier

The Two-Asset Portfolio Combinations

8 - 10 FIGURE

B C

Rational, risk averse investors will only want to hold portfolios such as B.

%n ru t e R de t ce px E

D

Standard Deviation (%)

8 - 96

Diversification

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Diversification

We have demonstrated that risk of a portfolio can be reduced by spreading the value of the portfolio across, two, three, four or more assets. The key to efficient diversification is to choose assets whose returns are less than perfectly positively correlated. Even with random or nave diversification, risk of the portfolio can be reduced.

This is illustrated in Figure 8 -11 and Table 8 -3 found on the following slides.

As the portfolio is divided across more and more securities, the risk of the portfolio falls rapidly at first, until a point is reached where, further division of the portfolio does not result in a reduction in risk. Going beyond this point is known as superfluous diversification. CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 98

Diversification

Domestic Diversification

8 - 11 FIGURE

Average Portfolio Risk January 1985 to December 1997

14 12 10 8 6 4 2

) % ( no it a i ve D d r a dna tS

50

100

150

200

250

300

8 - 99

Diversification

Domestic Diversification

Table 8-3 Monthly Canadian Stock Portfolio Returns, January 1985 to December 1997 Number of Stocks in Portfolio 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 40 50 100 200 222 Average Monthly Portfolio Return (%) 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.51 Standard Deviation of Average Monthly Portfolio Return (%) 13.47 10.99 9.91 9.30 8.67 8.30 7.95 7.71 7.52 7.33 6.80 5.62 5.41 4.86 4.51 4.48 Ratio of Portfolio Standard Deviation to Standard Deviation of a Single Stock 1.00 0.82 0.74 0.69 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.50 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.34 0.33 Percentage of Total Achievable Risk Reduction 0.00 27.50 39.56 46.37 53.31 57.50 61.35 64.02 66.17 68.30 74.19 87.24 89.64 95.70 99.58 100.00

Source: Cleary, S. and Copp D. "Diversification with Canadian Stocks: How M uch is Enough?" Canadian Investment Review (Fall 1 999), Table 1 .

8 - 100

Equals the Sum of Market and Unique Risk

Average Portfolio Risk

[8-19]

) % ( no it a i ve D d r a dna tS

Number of Stocks in Portfolio

This graph illustrates that total risk of a stock is made up of market risk (that cannot be diversified away because it is a function of the economic system) and unique, companyspecific risk that is eliminated from the portfolio through diversification.

[8-19]

8 - 101

International Diversification

Clearly, diversification adds value to a portfolio by reducing risk while not reducing the return on the portfolio significantly. Most of the benefits of diversification can be achieved by investing in 40 50 different positions (investments) However, if the investment universe is expanded to include investments beyond the domestic capital markets, additional risk reduction is possible.

(See Figure 8 -12 found on the following slide.)

8 - 102

Diversification

International Diversification

8 - 12 FIGURE

100 80 60 40 20

ks i r t necr e P

U.S. stocks

11.7

International stocks

10 20 30 40 50 60

Number of Stocks

8 - 103

In this chapter you have learned: How to measure different types of returns How to calculate the standard deviation and interpret its meaning How to measure returns and risk of portfolios and the importance of correlation in the diversification process. How the efficient frontier is that set of achievable portfolios that offer the highest rate of return for a given level of risk.

CHAPTER 8 Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory 8 - 104

Risk, Return and Portfolio Theory

Ex Ante and Ex Post Returns

8 - 106

Copyright

Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that permitted by Access Copyright (the Canadian copyright licensing agency) is unlawful. Requests for further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his or her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The author and the publisher assume no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages caused by the use of these files or programs or from the use of the information contained herein.

8 - 107

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