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# Uncertain activity duration (P14

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Consider the IS development project network given below: C
2 A 1 B 4 The systems analyst has made estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in days) for these activities as follows: D F

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E 5 G 6

if any. . is there for activity C? c) Determine the expected project completion time and the variance. d) Find the probability that the project will be completed in 30 days or less.Uncertain duration estimates (P14) Activity A B C D E F G Optimistic 5 5 6 4 5 7 4 Most Probable 6 12 8 10 6 7 7 Pessimistic 7 13 10 10 13 10 10 a) Find the critical path. b) How much slack time.

Complete this table (P14) Most Expected Activity Optimistic Probable Pessimistic Time Variance ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------A 5 6 7 B 5 12 13 C 6 8 10 D 4 10 10 E 5 6 13 F 7 7 10 G 4 7 10 Remember. and b is pessimistic estimate. m is most probable.a)/6]2 . the expected time formula is t = (a+4m+b)/6 where a is optimistic. The variance formula is: 2 = [(b .

78 F 7 7 10 7. the expected time formula is t = (a+4m+b)/6 where a is optimistic.0 1.0 1.0 .00 Remember.00 E 5 6 13 7.78 C 6 8 10 8.0 1.5 .11 B 5 12 13 11. and b is pessimistic estimate. The variance formula is: 2 = [(b .0 1.a)/6]2 .44 D 4 10 10 9. m is most probable.Expected time and variance (P14) Solution Most Expected Activity Optimistic Probable Pessimistic Time Variance ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------A 5 6 7 6.0 .25 G 4 7 10 7.

5.00 = 2.5 days variance = .5 days c) Expected completion time = 29.36 = 1.Uncertain time estimates (P14a-d) 3 2 G [22.5] 5 7 [22.5] 1 6 4 a) Critical path: A-D-F-G b) Slack for activity C = LF .29.5.6255 .54 = .5)/1.14.00 + .29.32 Probability = .0 = 1.5 .11 + 1.29.EF = 15.54 = (0.36 ( 2.25 + 1.54) d) z = (30 .5)/1.

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5 6 3 2. d. Prepare the activity schedule for this project.5 a. What are the critical path activities and expected project completion time? c.5 2 2 1 2 3. If the analyst wants a 0.5 2 1 1.5 1 3 3 1. how far ahead of the scheduled meeting date should she begin working on the project? . A C B.D E B. Show the PERT/CPM network for this project. b.5 4 2 Pessimistic 2.5 1.99 probability of completing the project on time.5 2 2.5 3 7 5 2.H 1.D G F.Analyst planning a training (P15) Activity A B C D E F G H I Description Plan topic Arrange speakers List locations Select location Speaker travel plan Finalize speakers Prepare brochure Take reservations Last-minute details Immediate Optimistic Most Predecessors Prob.5 0.

Compete this network (P15b) 2 A 1 C 3 .

Training plan exercise (P15b) 2 A B E 5 F 1 C D 4 G H 7 I 8 3 6 .

Training plan exercise (P15b) 2 5 1 4 7 I 2 8 3 6 .

Training plan exercise (P15b) 2 5 1 4 7 I [13.15] 8 3 6 .15] 2[13.

Training plan exercise (P15 c) Activity ES A 0 B 2 C 0 D 2 E 5 F 6 G 5 H 9 I 13 LS 0 2 1 3 10 11 5 9 13 EF 2 5 2 4 6 8 9 13 15 LF 2 5 3 5 11 13 9 13 15 Slack 0 0 1 1 5 5 0 0 0 C-Path Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes .

5]/6 = 12/6 = 2 The variance formula: 2 = [(b .5+4(2)+2. Example: tA = [1.Training plan exercise (P15b) Activity A B C D E F G H I Expected Time 2 3 2 2 1 2 4 4 2 Variance .44 .11 .03 .03 .03 Critical path activities A-B-G-H-I Expected completion time = (2+3+4+4+2) = 15 weeks.11 .03 .a)/6]2 .11 .44 .

38 weeks ahead of the scheduled completion date. …….02 Desired Probability p = .33 ( see Table) z = (T-15)/1.02 At .44 + .11 + . 15 T 17..44 + ..03 = 1.01 z = 2. . …….01 …….Training plan exercise (P15d) Critical path variance:  =  2 =  .03 + .

33)1.38 Desired Probability p = .02 At .03 + .03 = 1.Training plan exercise (P15d) Critical path variance:  =  2 =  . .3766 T = 17..33 ( see Table) z = (T-15)/1.38 weeks ahead of the scheduled completion date.02 T-15 = (2.01 z = 2. ……. …….44 + ..3766 T = 15 + 2. 15 T 17.11 + .01 …….02 T-15 = 2.44 + .

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Critical and non-critical paths (p16) Q1. if any.Why the probability of completing a project on time is based on the analysis of the critical path? Q2. would it be desirable to make the probability computation for a non-critical path? .In what case.

It may be desirable to consider the probability calculation for a non-critical path if the path activities have little slack. When all of these situations occur. the non-critical path may have a probability of completion on time that is less than the critical path. A2. or the path activity times have relatively high variances. The non-critical paths should have a higher probability of being completed on time. . if the path completion time is nearly the same as the critical path completion time.Critical path is the longest path and generally will have the lowest probability of being completed by the desired time.Critical and non-critical paths (p16) A1.

• Use word processor for all assignments and course works .Project teams • Form teams of 3 members • Give your team a name or a number • Try to sit close to your team members to do team assignments • Brainstorm and finalize project topic • Write up your project proposal and hand it in by next week.