Logic and Decision Making

Rajnish Kumar
Professor IT National Academy of Indian Railways

Decision Making
Full of confusion Facts not available

Time is less
Resources limited etc etc, hazaar bahaane

Use Logic
What is logic?
the science that investigates the principles governing correct or reliable inference. the system or principles of reasoning applicable to any branch of knowledge or study. reason or sound judgment, as in utterances or actions: There wasn't much logic in her move. convincing forcefulness; inexorable truth or persuasiveness: the irresistible logic of the facts.

Properties of a Logical System

Among the important properties that logical systems can have: Consistency, which means that no theorem of the system contradicts another. Validity, which means that the system's rules of proof will never allow a false inference from true premises. Completeness, of a logical system, which means that if a formula is true, it can be proven (if it is true, it is a theorem of the system). Soundness, this is the converse of completeness. A distinct, peripheral use of soundness refers to arguments, which means that the premises of a valid argument are true in the actual world.

Common Fallacies
Fallacy of accident or sweeping generalization: a generalization that disregards exceptions. Argument: Cutting people is a crime. Surgeons cut people, therefore, surgeons are criminals.
Problem: Cutting people is not a crime in certain situations.

Argument: It is illegal for a stranger to enter someone's home uninvited. Firefighters enter people's homes uninvited, therefore firefighters are breaking the law.
Problem: The exception does not break nor define the rule; a dicto simpliciter ad dictum secundum quid (where an accountable exception is ignored).[

Common Fallacies
Affirming the consequent and Denying the antecedent:
draws a conclusion from premises that do not support that conclusion by confusing necessary and sufficient conditions.
Affirming the consequent Example:

Argument: If people have the flu, they cough. Torres is coughing. Therefore, Torres has the flu.
Problem: Other things, such as asthma, can cause someone to cough. The argument treats having the flu as a necessary condition of coughing; in fact, having the flu is a sufficient condition of coughing, but it is not necessary to have the flu for one to cough.

Argument: If it rains, the ground gets wet. The ground is wet, therefore it rained.
Problem: There are other ways by which the ground could get wet (e.g. someone spilled water).

Common Fallacies
Affirming the consequent and Denying the antecedent:

Denying the antecedent Example Argument: If it is raining outside, it must be cloudy. It is not raining outside. Therefore, it is not cloudy.
Problem: Rain is a sufficient condition of cloudiness, but cloudy conditions do not necessarily imply rain.

Common Fallacies
Fallacy of many questions groups more than one question in the form of a single question. Example Argument: Have you stopped beating your wife?
Problem: Either a yes or no answer is an admission of guilt to beating your wife.

Let us do some RIDDLES BRIDGE and TORCH Problem

Four people come to a river in the night. There is a narrow bridge, but it can only hold two people at a time. They have one torch and, because it's night, the torch has to be used when crossing the bridge.
Person A can cross the bridge in one minute, B in two minutes, C in five minutes, and D in eight minutes.

When two people cross the bridge together, they must move at the slower person's pace. The question is, can they all get across the bridge in 15 minutes or less?

Solution
A can cross the bridge in one minute, B in two minutes, C in five minutes, and D in eight minutes.

Elapsed Time 0 minutes 2 minutes 3 minutes 11 minutes 13 minutes 15 minutes

Starting Side ABCD CD ACD A AB

Action

Ending Side

A and B cross forward, taking 2 minutes A returns, taking 1 minute C and D cross forward, taking 8 minutes B returns, taking 2 minutes A and B cross forward, taking 2 minutes

AB B BCD CD ABCD

MUMs baby
Mary's mum has four children. The first child is called April. The second May. The third June. What is the name of the fourth child?

Answer
Mary!! Of course

Two Strings
You have two strings whose only known property is that when you light one end of either string it takes exactly one hour to burn. The rate at which the strings will burn is completely random and each string is different. How do you measure 45 minutes?

Answer
Light both the ends of the first string and one end of the second string. 30 minutes will have passed when the first string is fully burned, which means 30 minutes have burned off the second string.

Light the end of the second string and when it is fully burned, 45 minutes will have passed.

Some good links to induce logical thinking

http://easycalculation.com/puzzles/logical/logical1.php http://www.folj.com/puzzles/easy.htm http://www.logicalpuzzle.com/eng/examples_e.html http://puzzle.dse.nl/logical/index_us.html

http://logic.philosophy.ox.ac.uk/ http://www.harryhiker.com/fe/fe-0--00.htm

Dilemmas in decision making

Any solution only two methods HEURISTICS- refers to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery. Where an exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution.
Examples of this method include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, or common sense.

ALGORITHMS- "a set of rules that precisely defines a sequence of operations."

?
Are there more words in the English language that begin with the letter R or that have R as their third letter?

?
Calculate in your head the answer to the following problem: 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1

?
Calculate in your head the answer to the following problem: 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8

Judgment and Decision Making

Heuristics and Biases Availability R letter problem
We make judgments on the basis of how easily we can call to mind what we perceive as relevant instances of a phenomenon (e.g. words beginning with letter R)

Anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic calculation question

People provide a higher estimate for the first sequence than for the second because their computation for the anchor the first few digits multiplied by each other renders a higher estimate from which they make an adjustment to reach a final estimate

Judgment and Decision Making

Heuristics and Biases Overconfidence
And individuals overvaluation of her or his own skills, knowledge, or judgments People tend to overestimate the accuracy of their judgments Example:
When people were 100% confident in their answers, they were right only 80% of the time

Deductive Reasoning
Proposition
An assertion, which may be either true of false

Premise
Propositions about which arguments are made

Deductive Reasoning
Conditional Reasoning The reasoner must draw a conclusion based on an ifthen proposition Deductive validity
Does not equate with truth You can reach deductively valid conclusions that are completely untrue with respect to the world People are more likely mistakenly to accept an illogical argument as logical if the conclusion is factually true

Deductive Reasoning Example

1. If Larry is sick, then he will be absent from school. 2. If Larry is absent, then he will miss his classwork. 3. If Larry is sick, then he will miss his classwork. Is the final statement always true?

We also conclude that this could be a false statement.

So, being logical

Logic to be used logically or it could end in a fallacy. Logic helps in removing biases, prejudices.

Reduces time taken for decision. If given enough time many decisions could be better. But in real world, no TIMEone example

THINK!!! 5 seconds

Some months have 31 days, some 30. How many months have 28 days?

THINK!!! 5 seconds

Divide 30 by half and then add 10 What do you get?

Logic did it ring in your mind

Think Think
Think
Thank you