Community Resilience: Critical Needs for Community Resilience

Tim Osborn NOAA

TODAY

The Future Generations Face Today

HURRICANE ISAAC Aug. 26 Sept. 5, 2012

Hurricane Ike Surge Event at Cameron Parish, Calcasieu Pass and

Hurricane Isaac Surge Event at St Bernard Parish at Shell Beach and the MRGO

Hurricane Isaac Impacts in Southeast Louisiana

Storm surge 6 to 12 feet Rainfall 10-20 inches locally higher Historic river flooding event Two potential dam compromises warnings/evacuations with each Three tornadoes on the MS coast including an EF-2 in Pascagoula
Over 12,000 homes flooded including 7,000 in LaPlace alone 4 fatalities Around 1 million power outages

Hurricane Isaac Storm Surge Flooding

Evacuation of Entergy Utility Trucks from Port Fourchon with the Approach of Hurricane Ike- A Category 2 Hurricane that Made Landfall in Southeast Coastal Texas Source- Robby Wilson, Port Fourchon

Old Highway LA-1

New Elevated Causeway of LA-1 Connecting Port Fourchon to the New Leeville Bridge

South Lafourche Levee District Levee Southern Extent During Hurricane Ike

Flooded Homes outside South Lafourche Levee South Lafourche District Levees and Flood Gate now Flooded Highway LA-1 converted to a Lock to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle Hurricane Ike Inundation South Lafourche Parish

NWS SLOSH storm surge model

Weak Tropical Storms at Port Fourchon Will Inundate LA 1 to the Point of Closure- Source NWS New Orleans Baton Rouge Category 0 Storm Surge Slosh Ouput.

Galliano

Water level reference to datum - NAVD88

Grand Isle

Port Fourchon

Hurricane Ike Flooding Eastern Louisiana

Caminada Headland Inundated by Tropical System, July 2010

Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the Land at a Rapid Rate

Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.

NOAA OAR, 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, December 2012, 29pp. http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel

The high scenario shows global sea level rise by 2100 of 2.0m (about 6.5 ft.);
an intermediate high scenario of 1.2m (about 4 ft.); an intermediate - low scenario of 0.5m (about 1.6 ft.); and a low scenario of 0.2m (0.7 ft.)

The National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the authority of the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. The GCRA requires a report to the President and the Congress every four years that integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The Act requires assessment of the effects of global change (both humaninduced and natural) on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity. The time periods for analysis include current conditions as well as projections of major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. National climate assessments provide status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations collected across the country as well as research that uses projections from climate system and other models. The NCA incorporates advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and provides integrated analyses of impacts and vulnerability. The NCA integrates scientific information from multiple sources and highlights key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. It also helps the federal government prioritize climate research investments that will provide science for use by communities around the country to plan more sustainably for our future.

Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment

Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment

Morganza Reach J-2 Alignment

Analyzing Future Coastal Landscape Changes and the Threats to Coastal Shores, Island, Infrastructure and Communities Access to Port Fourchon Using Louisiana Highway LA-1

Sea Level in Lousiana is Rising Relative to the Land at a Rapid Rate

Note: The tide gauge record at Grand Isle contains components of global sea level rise, regional oceanographic change, and regional local vertical land motion.

Portions of Louisiana will become increasingly inundated even if the present day relative sea level rise (RSLR) remains constant in the future.
Estimated Effects of RSLR on Frequency and Duration of Inundation for Leeville, LA using observations 1987-1990 and then projecting this 4-year time period forward using present rate of sea level rise Using 5% LA-1 elevation of 0.78m NAVD88 (1993) Occurrences of Inundation Duration of Inundation Elevation Rise (over 4-years) (over 4- years) Above 1990 MSL (hours (percent of total (# of tides) time)) (meters) 0 124 1127 1334 0 (0%) 960(6%) 19163(55%) 33699(96%) 0.3 0.6 1.0

4-yr Time Period 1987- 1990 2027-2030 2047- 2050 2097- 2100

RSLR rate mm/yr) 9.24 9.24 9.24 9.24

Note: NAVD88 elevations for bench marks and for LIDAR elevations for road surface are only estimates and have significant uncertainty

U.S.D.H.S. performed an Assessment of Consequences of Disruptions to LA 1 in 2011. $7.8 billion of loss GDP is at risk

Climate models project acceleration in Sea Level Rise starting before 2100 due to climate change

Source- LSU Center for Coastal Studies

ResiliencyCommunity Tied to Community Tied to The State Tied to the Nation